Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 5, Day 2.

Although more details have begun to emerge the exact circumstances of Saif al-Islam Qaddafi's capture yesterday (19/11/11) remain distinctly opaque.

What we do know is that Saif al-Islam was travelling in a two two vehicle convoy headed in the direction of Niger when it was intercepted by fighters from the northern Zintan Brigade near the southern town of Obari. According to one version of events Saif al-Islam surrendered immediately without a shot being fired. According to another version of events he only surrendered after a two hour gun battle. I have to say that neither of these versions of events seem particularly believable so I think he probably surrendered after a short exchange of fire. What I'm about to say next though is pure speculation;

I think that Saif al-Islam had informed the International Criminal Court (ICC) that he intended to travel to Niger to either continue negotiations with them or just surrender. The Zintan Brigade had been tipped off about this and moved to stop it from happening. As for who tipped off the Zintan Brigade I think Britain is the most likely suspect. Firstly they have a lot to lose if the events of the Libyan war are examined in too much detail which is what would happen if Saif al-Islam is tried at the ICC. Secondly Britain has a large incentive to open up discussions with the ICC over issues of jurisdiction in certain high profile cases. All the better if these discussions are done through an unwitting third party.