Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 4, Day 2.

Within Syria there continue to be five main areas of operations.

Reading from right-to-left;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

In the period between mid-December 2018 and January 2019 there were major developments in all five of these areas.

Frustratingly this was also the period I was called away to deal with Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). The infamous Brexit.

In an effort to catch up I have started to look at the developments in the Shangri-La area.

Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3.html

Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3_20.html

And here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3_21.html

In those posts I looked out how the nature of the operation within Shangri-La has changed.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have been removed from any territory they held in the area. As a result their tactics have shifted from conventional warfare to guerrilla warfare.

Turkey has also emerged as an equal, if not greater threat to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition which controls Shangri-La.

This brings me onto US President Donald Trump's announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18).  That he is immediately withdrawing all US troops from Syria.

I should start by pointing out that moving troops anywhere is an extremely complex business. To the point that a full 20% of the British Army is employed just to do logistics. Their entire job is moving the other 80% of the British Army and its equipment about.

So in terms of military logistics the term; "Immediately" doesn't mean quite the same thing it does in Starbucks.

Troops are at their most vulnerable when they are on the move.

Once you have troops in bases, even on the frontline, you can build strong walls around them to protect them from attack. They're also able to build up large amounts of intelligence and information about the area around the base. Which allows them to stop any attack before it even reaches those walls.

When troops are on the move they are out in the open. They are also constantly travelling through new areas with new enemies and new threats. Ones which are much harder to predict.

At any time the troops which are the most vulnerable are the ones who don't specialise in combat. The people who do logistics, communications, maintenance, catering etc.

Certain combat units, such as artillery units, are also particularly vulnerable when they are on the move. The big guns artillery units use are designed to engage targets a great distance away. Normally at least 1km (0.6 miles) away. Any closer than that and those weapons are useless. Particularly when they've been packed up and loaded onto trucks.

So strange as it sounds if you want to withdraw troops from an area the first thing you have to do is send a load more troops into the area. Their job is to provide force protection. To scout and line the route the troops are travelling along in order to protect them against ambush and attack.

The US military has quite a high state of readiness. However you still need to mobilise this force protection force and make sure it is properly equipped for its task. Before finally moving it to where it's needed.

So in these terms; "immediately" actually means in around 90-100 days.

So an announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) that troops are being withdrawn immediately means you wouldn't expect to see the first troops withdraw until at least March 6th 2019 (6/3/19). At the earliest.

This isn't something I've worked out using my experience. It is something that was made clear in President Trump's announcement. It was mentioned in all of the reporting surrounding the announcement.

Or at least all the reports written by journalists who don't approach every story asking themselves; "How can I use this to make Trump look bad?"

The second thing that I should make clear is that the US troop presence in Syria is extremely small.

Everyone approaching this mission has been clear that this is Iraq and Syria's fight against ISIL. The US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) is only there to support Iraqi and Syrian forces with capabilities they don't posses.

For example back when the war started in 2014 Iraq didn't have an airforce. Primarily due to then US President Obama blocking the delivery of F-16's that Iraq had ordered and paid for. The SDF still don't have an airforce.

So CJTFOIR's role in the fight against ISIL has been to step in and fill that sort of capability gap.

In terms of ground forces the US only has around 2,500 troops in Syria.

A full 2,000 of those are made up of two artillery battalions. They were brought into Shangri-La in the spring of 2017. Just before the Battle for Raqqa City. To perform a specific task. To rain down artillery shells on ISIL's defensive positions. Destroying them.

The other 500 US troops are Special Operations Forces (SOF). It is the nature of what SOF's do that, at any given point, that number might be slightly higher or it might be slightly lower.

SOF's exist to do missions that conventional military forces can't. In areas where conventional forces can't go. They're often a clandestine force sent to places where nations can't officially admit they have troops.

Britain's most famous SOF is the 22nd Squadron, Special Air Service (SAS). They were founded in 1941. During the North Africa campaign of the Second World War.

It says a lot about SOF operations that initially the SAS were never intended to have anything to do with air operations. However they were given the name 22nd Squadron Special Air Service so any Nazi spies would think Britain had a Special Air Service. Not only that it had at least 22 squadrons of planes the Nazi spies needed to find.

Despite being formed in 1941 Britain did not officially acknowledge, and often denied the existence of the SAS. Right up until 1980. When the SAS ended a siege at the Iranian Embassy in central London. Live on TV.

On December 27th 2018 (27/12/18) Trump visited US troops in Iraq. There he had a photograph taken with the Chaplain of the US SOF unit US Navy SEAL Team Five. Trump then put those photographs on Twitter.

This led to Trump's critics blasting him for undermining national security. By revealing the identities and location of this secret SOF unit.

The thing is that SEAL Team Five are not a clandestine unit. Although not widely publicised their deployment in Iraq is certainly not a secret. They even have their own Twitter account.

It is the Osama bin Laden killing SEAL Team Six which does clandestine and covert work. So I certainly couldn't confirm where they've been deployed throughout the battle for the Hajin Pocket.

I should also probably mention that there is a roughly decade old US TV show about a fictional SOF unit called; "The Unit." This has emerged as something of a codebook in the conflict. Fans of the US TV show; "The Mentalist" will certainly recognise The Unit's Chaplain.

In the TV show the SOF unit are designated as the; "303rd Logisitical Studies Group." To disguise their true purpose.

The third thing I should make clear is that Shangri-La is not the only area of Syria where US troops are based. There is also a small deployment within the Central Syria area. At a base near al-Tanf.

This base sits right on the Syria/Iraq/Jordan border. Around 225km (135 miles) south-west of where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria. Which marks the south-eastern boundary of the Shangri-La.

Up until now this base has been designated; "Bobby Sands." However due to Brexit it has been re-designated; "Dollywood." If I told you why it would take all the fun out of it.

Due to the nature of SOF deployments I can't give you an exact number of US troops there. However assuming a total of 500 there is a roughly 300/200 split between Shangri-La and Dollywood.

Dollywood was established as a place to train the Southern Front. A coalition of fighters active in the south of Syria.

If the SDF had been able to establish the boundaries of Shangri-La more promptly Dollywood would have performed a vital strategic function.

Allowing the SDF and the Southern Front to link up with each other. Eliminating ISIL from not only the entire north-east of Syria but also the south and south-west of Syria. Giving CJTFOIR backed troops control over those vast areas of Syria in the process.

However the Syrians were much more alert to this possibility than CJTFOIR were.

So in May 2017 the Syrians began a west-to-east push across the centre on the country. In the north of the country they set out from Aleppo City. In the south of the country they set out from the capital Damascus.

On June 10th 2017 (10/7/17) Syrian forces arrived at al-Tanf and liberated it. In the process they surrounded the Dollywood base on three sides. Cutting it off from not only the SDF but also the Southern Front.

The Syrians then spent much of 2017 and 2018 clearing ISIL, the Army of Conquest and the Southern Front from the south and south-west of the country. Eliminating the Southern Front as a viable fighting force.

As a result the Dollywood base now serves absolutely no military or strategic purpose.

The US however continues to cling on to Dollywood because it sits on the H2 Highway. Running from Iraq to the Syrian capital Damascus. The US claims it needs to keep control over this road to prevent Iran establishing a land bridge across Iraq and Syria in order to attack Israel.

CJTFOIR only has legal authority to operate within Syria in order to fight ISIL and Al Qaeda. America stationing troops within Syria to obstruct the normal diplomatic and trading relationship between Syria, Iraq and Iran is therefore completely illegal under international law.

Perhaps worse than that the Dollywood base doesn't even achieve this objective.

Losing control of a single road does not cripple a nation's entire road network. If it did every country would grind to a halt every time there is a major vehicle crash.

Losing control of a single road also does not stop supplies being flown into a nation. The Dollywood base certainly hasn't stopped Iran flying large amounts of weapons and equipment into Syria.

What makes the H2 Highway so important to the US is that it runs across the border into Iraq. So if the US wanted to deny Syria control of the road they could do that just as effectively from a base on the Iraqi side of the border.

I don't think it is any secret that US National Security Adviser John Bolton harbours a crazy dream of invading Syria from Iraq. After all in 2003 it was he who harboured the crazy dream of invading Iraq. Which I think we can all agree has been a massive success and an immense strategic victory for the US.

If John Bolton's latest fever dream were to come to fruition the first thing the US would have to do is pull its troops at Dollywood back into Iraq. Or risk leaving them exposed while the rest of the invasion force caught up.

So in military terms the US' Dollywood base is utterly useless.

In fact it is worse than useless.

The Dollywood base is surrounded by a roughly 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) exclusion zone. It's petticoats. Syrian troops cannot enter this exclusion zone. While US troops cannot operate outside of this exclusion zone.

The only group that can operate freely amongst these petticoats is ISIL.

So by maintaining the Dollywood base the US is providing ISIL with a 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) area where it can operate under de facto US protection. An area which includes the Ruqban Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camp.

CJTFOIR seem well aware of how counter-productive the US' Dollywood base is.

On February 2nd 2019 (2/2/19) CJTFOIR conducted airstrikes against a Syrian barracks on the town of al-Sukkayria.

Sukkayria sits all of 10km (6 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria. It sits directly across the Euphrates from the Hajin Pocket town of Marashidah. Where the SDF were battling ISIL.

This CJTFOIR strike on the Syrians allowed ISIL to cross the Euphrates and break out from the Hajin Pocket. In the direction of Dollywood and its petticoats.

I assume that as news of that incident filtered up the chain of command to US politicians someone pointed out how ridiculous the situation was. With the US simultaneously trying to defeat and help ISIL.

The Dollywood base is being maintained entirely in the name of America protecting Israel from Iran.

Israel seems remarkably unimpressed by the US' efforts. Since the Syrians liberated al-Tanf and encircled Dollywood Israel has massively increased its airstrikes against, particularly Iranian interests in, Syria.

On May 10th 2018 (10/5/18) Israel conducted the largest series of airstrikes against Syria it has undertaken since 1974. When a truce brought to end the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The fact that this war has never officially ended means that Israeli strikes against Syria are technically legal. If not morally correct.

This massive wave of Israeli airstrikes began little more than 30 minutes after President Trump withdrew the US from the Iran Nuclear Deal. On the evening of May 9th 2018 (9/5/18).

So the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest, taking place in Israel, looks like it's going to be fun. The Israelis even seem to bring an air of flamboyant performance to their military actions.

The surprise nature of Trump's troop withdrawal announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) prompted a mass of discussion. Over what troops the US has in Syria, where they're located and what effect their withdrawal would have.

On December 25th 2018 (25/12/18) Israel conducted another dramatic wave of airstrikes against Syria.

With this being Christmas Day it was pretty much the only news story happening anywhere in Europe and America. So you would think that politicians and military leaders in those areas would be talking of nothing else.

I can only strongly recommend that France in particular looks closely at the detail of those December 25th 2018 (25/12/18) Israeli strikes. So they don't receive any nasty surprises when I do look at them in detail. In the section to which they are most relevant.

So, at best, Israel views the US' Dollywood base as completely irrelevant to its security. At worse it is actively lobbying for the US to withdraw its forces and remove the base.

When it was first established Dollywood was a CJTFOIR base. Operated primarily by Britain and Jordan.

However following the Syrians liberation of al-Tanf both Britain and Jordan realised that the base no longer served any purpose. So they both withdraw their forces in the summer of 2017. Leaving it as an exclusively US base.

So President Trump announcing that Dollywood is to be closed and US forces withdrawn is not something to panic about or protest against. It is a move that is almost two years overdue.

The US' hatred of Iran. Which in this case is completely irrational. Stems from something deep within, almost the DNA of the Republican Party.

In February 1979 Iran underwent its Islamic Revolution. Overthrowing the King or Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Whom the US and the UK had installed in charge of Iran's vast oil reserves in a military coup in 1953.

Then US President Jimmy Carter, of the Democrat Party, responded to the Islamic Revolution by imposing sanctions on Iran. Seizing all Iranian assets within the US. In October 1979 then President Carter went one step further. Granting Mohammad Reza Pahlavi asylum in the US.

The Iranians responded to this by storming the US Embassy in Tehran and taking 52 US citizens hostage. For the next 444 days then President Carter's administration failed to secure the release of the hostages. Including through the ill fated Operation: Eagle Claw rescue mission.

President Carter's failure to rescue the hostages was a significant, possibly even the main, factor in him being defeated at the November 1980 US Presidential Election. By that hero of the US Republican Party President Ronald Reagan.

The release of the hostages was actually timed to coincide with President Reagan's inauguration. On January 20th 1981 (20/11/81).

Since then ranting and raving against Iran has been an easy way to win cheap applause at Republican Party rallies.

What everyone seems to forget is how President Reagan secured the release of the hostages.

President Reagan  reversed President Carter's strategy. Scrapping the sanctions and returning Iran's assets. He then spent much of his term of office selling weapons to Iran. In order to fund Contras in Nicaragua. Something you may have heard of.

So Reagan's legacy on Iran is actually one of abandoning hostility in favour of engagement.

This anti-Iran faction of the Republican Party was led by John McCain, Senator for Arizona. Up until his death on August 25th 2018 (25/8/18). Since then leadership of the faction has fallen to his longtime deputy Lindsay Graham. Senator for South Carolina.

Both McCain and Graham have both treasonously long backed both ISIL and Al Qaeda. Something they have seen as a viable and effective strategy to overthrow the Syrian government. Ending the longstanding alliance between Syria and Iran.

Amongst Republicans it is Senator Graham who has been the most vocal in opposition to President Trump's plan to withdraw US troops from Syria.

On December 30th 2018 (30/12/18) Senator Graham met with President Trump at the White House. Senator Graham emerged from the meeting declaring that he had succeeded in getting Trump to slow down and possibly reverse his decision to withdraw US troops.

Here I'm really not sure what Senator Graham thinks that he achieved. In the morning, before the meeting, the withdrawal timeline was 90-100 days. In the evening, after the meeting, the withdrawal timeline remained at 90-100 days.

On January 19th 2019 (19/1/19) Senator Graham travelled to Turkey. Where he met with Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

To give you an idea of the state of US/Turkey relations at the time National Security Adviser Bolton visited Turkey on January 6th 2019 (6/1/19). There he delievered a message from President Trump. Warning Turkey against attacking the SDF. With or without a US troop withdrawal.

In response Erdogan refused to meet with Bolton. Declaring that it was disrespectful to say the SDF represent Syrians and it was irrational to say that Turkey wants to attack the SDF. Despite Erdogan promising, on an almost daily basis, to attack the SDF.

Since then the mainstream Turkish media have bizarrely started to declare Bolton to be part of a Deep State conspiracy against Trump. Attempting to undermine Trump's supposed promise to Erdogan to allow him to attack the SDF.

I say; "Bizarre." Everyone knows there is a US Deep State conspiracy against President Trump. The Turkish government funded CNN tells you all about it, every day.

However the conspiracy was tasked first with ensuring Hillary Clinton replaced Barack Obama as President. Then failing that to bind President Trump to the pro-Turkey, pro-ISIL policies of former President Obama.

Within places like Turkey and Egypt the existence of these type of Deep State conspiracies is well established. They're openly discussed as a normal part of political discourse.

We just never thought American democracy would ever fall so low.

On his visit to Turkey Senator Graham declared the SDF to be nothing more than an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). He pledged his full support to Erdogan's plan to invade Shangri-La and wipe out the SDF.

So Senator Graham's objections to Trump's troop withdrawal plan are most certainly not because he thinks it will led to the SDF being slaughtered in a Turkish invasion of Shangri-La.

In fact Senator Graham seems perfectly happy to see US troops slaughtered as part of that Turkish invasion.

What Senator Graham is concerned about is the withdrawal of US troops leading to the Dollywood base being closed.

Removing the protection it grants to ISIL.

20:10 on 25/2/19 (UK date).