Wednesday, 13 February 2019

Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 2, Day 4.

In mid-December 2018 I was called away for a month. To deal with the emerging crisis of Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). The infamous; "Brexit."

Frustratingly this was the month where everything started to happen in Syria.

So since mid-January I have been working to catch up.

It turns out that within the Syria there are still five main areas. Reading from right-to-left;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.

Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria. It is these tribal forces that have been pushed to the fore in recent months.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

The SDF is currently supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.

The only area of Shangri-La which has so far not fallen under SDF control is an area known as the; "Hajin Pocket."

This is a roughly  35km (20 mile) long, 10km (6 mile) wide area stretching along the north bank of the Euphrates River. From the town of Hajin to Mount Baghouz, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

This Hajin Pocket has remained under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL).

Within this roughly 350kmsq (210 milesq) Hajin Pocket there are 12 main towns/villages. Reading from the north-west to the south-east;

Hajin, Abu Hassan, Al Kashmah, As Sha'fah, Al Bubadran, Al-Ulayat, As-Sousse/Susah, Al Marashidah, Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira, as-Safafinah, Baghouz Fawqani and Baghouz Tahtani.  

Amongst these 12 towns there sit a number of small villages and hamlets. In the space between them ISIL have built up layers of defences.

These defences are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.

On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."

This operation began with two concurrent phases.

The first phase focused on the Hajin Pocket itself. The objective was to isolate it from the Syria/Iraq border and to isolate the towns within it from each other.

This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th 2018 (4/5/18). Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghouz Tahtani and Baghouz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th 2018 (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghouz Tahtani and surrounded Baghouz Fawqani.

The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.

Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghouz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.

On August 7th 2018 (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up.

As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.

Over the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. It's objective was to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket.

This third phase of Operation Round Up was conducted on three axis;

The north-western axis focused on Hajin.

The south-western axis focused on Baghuz Fawqani.

The third axis was a northern one, focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.

The Hajin axis and the Sousse axis were most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.

However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. Although no-one mentioned that to ISIL.

The pressure being applied to ISIL on the Hajin and Sousse axis' allowed the SDF to advance on the Baghouz Fawqani axis. Where they made rapid progress.

On September 20th 2018 (20/9/18) the SDF completely liberated Baghouz Fawqani.

Directly to the north of Baghouz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.

So with Baghouz Fawqani liberated both that axis and the SDF's Sousse axis turned their attention to al-Shalja. This was liberated on September 25th 2018 (25/9/18).

This saw the SDF's south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis merge and effectively become one single axis.

Directly to the west of al-Shalja you have the town of as-Safafinah. To the west of as-Safafinah you have the town of al-Marashidah.

On September 28th (28/9/18) the SDF's now combined south-western axis began to advance out of al-Shalja. In an effort to liberate both Safafinah and Marashidah.

On October 2nd 2018 (2/10/18) the SDF entered Safafinah. On October 7th 2018 (7/10/18) the SDF entered Marashidah.

By October 10th 2018 (10/10/18) there were reports that the SDF had fully liberated Marashidah. Amid a sudden withdrawal of ISIL forces from the town.

Unfortunately October 10th 2018 (10/10/18) also brought the first major setback in the SDF's operation.

As it tends to do when September gives way to October the weather turned. Bringing with it heavy rainstorms and sandstorms.

This poor weather and loss of visibility severely hampered CJTFOIR's ability to provide the SDF with close air support. Allowing ISIL to deploy Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (S-VBIEDS), essentially truck bombs, in a large-scale, coordinated counter-offensive against the SDF. On all fronts.

The worst day of SDF losses in this five day ISIL counter-offensive came on October 12th 2018 (12/10/18).

The SDF were forced to withdraw entirely from both Marashidah and Safafinah. This allowed ISIL to cut the SDF's supply lines with al-Shalja and Baghouz Fawqani. Prompting fierce fighting in both towns.

On the same day ISIL were able to break through the SDF's lines at Sousse. This allowed them to make a break for the Syria/Iraq border. Where they were only stopped by the intervention of units of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias.

Alarmingly ISIL also broke through the SDF's lines at Hajin. This allowed them to reach al-Bahrah which sits around 5km (3 miles) north-west of Hajin.

There ISIL mounted an attack on the Bahrah camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP). Kidnapping and taking hostage some 700 civilians who had fled the group in the Hajin Pocket.

On October 15th 2018 (15/10/18) the weather shifted again. This allowed the SDF to quickly recover all the territory they had lost to ISIL in the previous five days.

On October 22nd 2018 (22/10/18) the SDF turned its attention to liberating Sousse. While cutting it off from Marashidah.

By the following day, October 23rd (23/10/18) the SDF were in control of almost 70% of Sousse. On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) the SDF had all but completely liberated Sousse. With just a small pocket of ISIL resistance holding out.

On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) the bad weather set in again. This allowed ISIL to launch another large, coordinated and highly effective counter-offensive. Across all of the Hajin Pocket.

The worst day of SDF losses during this counter-offensive came on October 27th 2018 (27/10/18).

Having been unable to consolidate their control over Sousse the SDF were quickly forced out of the town. ISIL then concentrated their attacks on the SDF south of Sousse. The line dividing Marashidah from Safafinah.

ISIL focused their attacks on an element of the SDF line or "Echelon" made up of the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC). The local Arab tribal fighters. This DEZ-MC echelon was smashed apart with 78 of its 100 members being killed.

The destruction of the DEZ-MC echelon created a gap in the SDF line through which ISIL fighters flowed. Facing being outflanked by ISIL the SDF had no option other than to withdraw the entire line. Or risk seeing all of the fighters in the line being slaughtered.

This enforced retreat led to the SDF having to abandon all of its positions in the Hajin Pocket by October 28th 2018 (28/10/18). Wiping out all the gains made during the previous 47 days of battle.

Unfortunately the SDF weren't just forced from the positions they'd gained in Phase Three of Operation: Round Up. They were also forced from many of the positions they'd gained in Phases One and Two of the operation.

So the SDF were forced from the area to the south-east of Hajin. Positions which had isolated it from the neighbouring town of Abu Hassan.

The SDF also lost control of the positions they had gained along the Syria/Iraq border. Essentially a network of thirty fighting positions stretching up from Mount Baghouz to the Mallah Salt Pan.

On November 6th 2018 (6/11/18) the Iraqi PMF were forced to cross into Syria to take control of these positions. In order to prevent them falling under ISIL control.

It has been harder to assess the impact the defeat had on the SDF's control over the area to the north of the Hajin Pocket. That's because this area is largely unpopulated desert.

The SDF's control over it was through a network of small bases known as; "Control Points" and positions. Some of which can be as small as a platoon of between 16 and 44 troops dug in with a handful of vehicles.

During periods of poor visibility, such as during bad weather or at night, it is easy to sneak between these Control Points undetected. So throughout the period after the SDF took control of this area in August 2018 ISIL have always been able to conduct small attacks against it and beyond it.

However following the October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) defeat ISIL were able to mount large attacks in the around the ar-Rawdah Salt Pan. This sits around 25km (15 miles) north of the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field and around 90km (50 miles) north of the Hajin Pocket.

In response to the October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) defeat the SDF announced their intention to re-establish the Phases One and Two containment of the Hajin Pocket. Then suspend their operations until the Spring of 2019. In order all them time to re-group and for the weather to clear. So CJTFOIR could supply more reliable close air support.

CJTFOIR though had other ideas. At a meeting on November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) the French and US elements bullied the SDF into resuming operations immediately.

This move seemed primarily driven by a desire that Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump, the respective Presidents of France and the US not be embarrassed by having to accept even a small defeat on the day they gathered to mark the centenary of the end of World War One.

Following the announcement on November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) SDF operations resumed on November 14th 2018 (14/11/18). With nothing more sophisticated than an attempt to advance directly from Bahrah to Hajin.

At the time Hajin was considered to be ISIL's de facto capital. It was also believed to be the location of the group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

A suspicion which was only strengthened on November 16th 2018 (16/11/18) with reports that two of Baghdadi's sons had been killed in the town. Including his favoured second son Motaz al-Badri.

So great was CJTFOIR's desire to declare Hajin liberated and Baghdadi captured or killed this new phase of SDF operations seemed to be being conducted without anything resembling a strategy. Instead, in something of a blind tantrum, CJTFOIR just sent the SDF to bash away at the gates of Hajin. While CJTFOIR set about flattening the town with heavy air and artillery strikes.

This came at a great toll to the SDF fighters on the frontline. Particularly the poorly trained, recently conscripted Arab tribal fighters of the DEZ-MC. It also came at a great toll to the civilians trapped in Hajin and the civilians who would have to return and try and make a life in an utterly destroyed town.

It was also hugely ineffective. Not only were the SDF unable to make gains into Hajin they initially ended up losing further territory to ISIL.

On November 24th 2018 (24/11/18) ISIL launched an attack from Hajin. Not just against Bahrah but also against Gharanji. The town beyond Bahrah, sitting around 5km (3 miles) to the north-west. Again under the cover of bad weather.

The attack on Gharanji failed almost as soon as it was launched. However the attack on Bahrah was highly successful. The SDF were forced out of the town leaving ISIL free to loot and pillage it for two full days.

With the arrival of Shitat Tribal fighters the SDF were able to regain control over Bahrah on November 26th (26/11/18). By which time at least 90 of their fighters had been killed.

The loss of Bahrah, albeit temporarily, seemed to shock CJTFOIR into finally developing a strategy. Or at least letting the SDF implement the strategy it had drawn up.

On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the SDF reclaimed their positions along the Syria/Iraq border. Allowing the PMF units to return to Iraq.

From those positions the SDF immediately opened a Humanitarian Corridor into Sousse. They also advanced towards Mount Baghouz. Arriving on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18) and liberating it on December 11th 2018 (11/12/18).

Having reasserted their control over the area to the north of the Hajin Pocket the SDF launched an attack on Shafah. On December 4th 2018 (4/12/18).

This meant that, what must now count as Phase Four of Operation: Round Up, was once again being conducted on three axis;

A north-western axis focused on Hajin.

A south-eastern axis focused on Baghouz.

A northern axis. This time focused on Shafah.

As with Phase Three of the operation the Baghouz and Shafah axis most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.

However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. To allow advances to be made on the Hajin axis.

With something resembling a strategy in place progress started to pick up apace.

The SDF had already breached the main defensive line around Hajin on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18).

By the following day (4/12/18) the SDF had managed to liberate the Hawamah neighbourhood, the hospital and the main market square. All to the north of the town. The SDF had also been able to liberate the adjacent Sunbul neighbourhood, reaching Khymat Hill.

On December 13th 2018 (13/12/18) the SDF raised their flag over the main Bazaar. Located in the centre of Hajin. This pushed ISIL into full collapse in the town.

On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) the SDF liberated Abu al-Khatir. This is technically a separate village which sits directly adjacent to Hajin's south-eastern tip.

The liberation of Abu al-Khatir marked the complete liberation of Hajin.

However, to the US' disappointment Baghdadi was nowhere to be found. If he had been present in the town he likely fled alongside many other ISIL fighters and their families to Sousse. On or around November 15th 2018 (15/11/18).

On December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) US President Trump announced that US forces would be withdrawing from Syria. This certainly put a spanner in the works of the operation. With the SDF threatening, on December 20th 2018 (20/12/18) to abandon all operations and release some 3,200 foreign ISIL fighters they are currently holding prisoner.

Despite the chaos the SDF did continue their operations. Absorbing and repelling a heavy and sustained ISIL's counter-offensive on both the Sousse and Baghouz axis on December 21st 2018 (21/12/18).

On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18) the SDF entered Abu Hassan. The town which sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

By December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) the SDF had liberated Abu Hassan and moved on to Khasham. Which sits around 3km (2 miles) south-east of Abu Hassan.

These advances were carefully coordinated with the SDF's Shafah axis. On December 26th 2018 (26/12/18) the SDF broke through the main defensive ring around Shafah from the north and entered the town itself.

After just a day of fighting the SDF liberated Khasham on December 29th (29/12/18). They then advanced the roughly 2km (1.2 miles) to the south-east. Joining the battle for Shafah from the north-west. 

This pitched the SDF into some extremely heavy fighting with ISIL. However by January 2nd 2019 (2/1/19) the SDF had reached the centre of Shafah. Having liberated half of the town.

It was during this period of fierce fighting that two British SOF's, of the Special Air Service (SAS), were wounded by ISIL rocket fire on January 5th 2019 (5/1/19). One seriously. I gather though that both are now well on the road to recovery.

On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) the SDF advanced into Abu Bubadran. This sits directly adjacent to Shafah. By advancing into the town the SDF were able to open a third front in the battle for Shafah, for the south-east.

By January 13th 2019 (13/1/19) ISIL forces in Shafah and Abu Bubadran were in full collapse. Allowing the SDF to declare both Shafah and Abu Bubadran liberated on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19).


It's a poor moment for a break. However time dictates I must pick this up tomorrow.

21:15 on 13/2/19 (UK date).

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