Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 3, Day 5.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3_20.html

In that post I looked how there has been a noticeable shift towards guerrilla warfare tactics within the Shangri-La area. Many of these attacks have particularly clustered around the town of Manbij.

This cluster of attacks highlight that ISIL are not the only threat facing Shangri-La. It's arguable that ISIL are no longer even the main threat.

Turkey presents at least as much of a threat to Shangri-La and the people within it.

In August 2016 Turkish forces illegally invaded the Garvaghy Road area of Syria. Garvaghy Road sits directly adjacent to the west of Shangri-La. Technically the town of Jarablus within Garvaghy Road sits directly to the north of Manbij.

The purpose of Turkey's invasion of Garvaghy Road was to prevent the SDF advancing from Manbij to Afrin Canton. This would cut Turkey's supply lines with ISIL positions in the Central Syria area.

Then US President Barack Obama gave Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan permission to do this. In return for Erdogan giving the US Air Force (USAF) permission to use USAF base Incirlik in Turkey. Provided it was not used to attack ISIL.

Obama was apparently unaware that the USAF does not need Turkey's permission to use a USAF base. So in Britain this incident is known as; "The Shoreham Air Disaster."

The last town in Garvaghy Road Turkish forces captured was al-Bab. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij.

When the battle for al-Bab began in November 2016 Erdogan made it quite clear that once the town had been captured Turkish forces would move onto to attack Manbij. Including the SDF and CJTFOIR forces stationed there.

It fell to Russia to protect the SDF and CJTFOIR forces at Manbij from Turkish attack. In late December 2016 Russia moved its military police and some Syrian troops into the town of al-Arimah.

Arimah sits around 20km (12 miles) north-east of al-Bab and around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Manbij. This meant that if Erdogan wished to attack Manbij his forces would have to go through the Russian forces at Arimah. Something that would end extremely badly for Erdogan and Turkey.

In response the US President Obama expelled 35 Russian diplomats from the US. On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16). In an apparent attempt to punish Russia for protecting US troops stationed at Manbij.

It's enough to give you the impression that the deep hatred Obama's Democrat Party harbour towards Russia stems from their deep love affair with ISIL.

In the Spring of 2017 Syrian forces set out from Aleppo City pressing east. To clear ISIL from the Central Syria area. In July 2017 they arrived at the town of Dalhah on the southern banks of the Euphrates. Completing the task.

This meant that Erdogan had his Garvaghy Road supply line to ISIL open. He just didn't have any ISIL fighters in the Central Syria area to supply.

Throughout much of 2017 and early 2018 the Syrians completely cleared this Central Syria area of ISIL and associated armed groups.

This forced Erdogan to abandon his dream of overthrowing the Syrian government. In order to annex all of Syria as a province of his New Ottoman Empire.

In response Erdogan launched into a mad rush to seize and annex as much Syrian territory as he could.

In October 2017 Erdogan dispatched Turkish troops into the Sudetenland area of Syria. In order to establish a network of Control Point military bases. Protecting the Al Qaeda-led armed groups there and prevent the Syrians liberating the area. Like they had liberated the Central Syria area.

In January 2018 Erdogan dispatched Turkish troops to attack the SDF in Afrin Canton. Invading and illegally occupying that area of Syria. An occupation which continues to this day.

This was nothing more than a land grab on Erdogan's part. He was particularly interested in Afrin's famous Olive industry. Which is actually worth about US$80m per year.

In launching the invasion of Afrin Canton Erdogan made it quite clear that he next intended to invade and occupy Shangri-La. Annexing that territory as part of his New Ottoman Empire. Including its Oil & Gas Fields.

Throughout 2018 Erdogan has clung on to and often vocalised this belief that he is entitled to invade and annex Shangri-La. Primarily because no-one's yet explained to him that he needs to get the hell out of the Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton and Sudetenland areas.

Erdogan's desire to invade and occupy Shangri-La has occasionally boiled over into direct military action.

On February 20th 2017 (20/2/17) the Turkish Air Force conducted an airstrike against Russian positions nears Homs City. Killing four Russian troops.

On March 1st 2017 (1/3/17) Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton.

That afternoon Turkish jets also attacked SDF positions at Manbij. Those airstrikes were accompanied by artillery strikes from Turkish military (TSK) positions at al-Bab.

Again it fell to Russia to protect SDF and CJTFOIR forces stationed at Manbij. Russia deployed its aircraft to chase off the Turkish fighters and enforce something of a No Fly Zone around Manbij.

The US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee response was to launch an investigation into claims of Russian interference in the 2016 election. With a view to imposing more sanctions against Russia.

On April 25th 2017 (25/4/17) the Turkish military went on a particularly violent rampage.

The Turkish Air Force conducted airstrikes close to the town of Sinjar/Shingal in northern Iraq. These strikes killed five members of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and five members of the Yezidi Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who, at the time, were one of the militia's that make up the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).

Erdogan's strikes against Iraq were coordinated with no fewer than 20 airstrikes against the General Command centre of the SDF in al-Malikiyah/Derik in north-east Syria. Apart from damaging the SDF's communications system these strikes killed 28 members of the SDF.

The Turkish airstrikes continued at a lower intensity on April 26th 2017 (26/4/17) and April 27th 2017 (27/4/17). Both in Iraq and Syria.

On April 28th 2017 (28/4/17) the regular Turkish Military (TSK) launched a limited ground assault against Shangri-La. Against the border town of Darbasiya. This sits around 270km (160 miles) east of the famous town of Kobane and around 190km (115 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq.

The attack came despite US Marines being stationed within Shangri-La. Conducting highly visible show of force patrols along the Syria/Turkey border within the Darbasiya area specifically to deter Erdogan's aggression.

Those US Marines were not involved in repelling the attack. During which the SDF destroyed five Turkish tanks, a radar vehicle and two fighting positions.

Since then the Turkish military have sporadically shelled Shangri-La. Both from within Turkey itself and from within the Garvaghy Road area.

Most notably the TSK shelled wide areas of Shangri-La over the weekend of October 27th 2018 (27/10/18). Attacks which accompanied ISIL launching its counter-offensive which expelled the SDF from the Hajin Pocket.

These were followed by ground clashes between the SDF and Turkey's irregular ground force the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

At Manbij of November 17th 2018 (17/11/18). On December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) at Turkhar, a village just outside Manbij.

On February 4th 2019 (4/2/19) Erdogan was forced to admit that the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) has maintained contact with the Syrian Military Intelligence Directorate (Mukhabarat). Despite Turkey have officially broken off all diplomatic ties with Syria back in September 2011.

In making this admission Erdogan also let slip that the MIT operate cells in both Qamishli/Qamishlo and Hasakah City. Two cities where ISIL seems to have suddenly developed the ability to conduct guerrilla attacks.

It's long been known that the Turkish MIT have been conducting guerrilla warfare against the SDF in Shangri-La. Using the front organisation The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HaQ).

After emerging in August 2017 Harakat al-Qiyam quickly became mocked for the claims of responsibility they published following attacks. It was obvious to all that whomever was writing those Arabic statements clearly didn't speak Arabic.

That is something which is quite embarrassing for a group claiming to be made up of Syrian Arabs. It's even a bit embarrassing for a Turk who claims to be a Muslim.

Eventually the sound of laughter become too much to bear. So Harakat al-Qiyam simply stopped issuing claims of responsibility for their attacks.

On November 4th 2018 (4/11/18) HaQ did break their long silence. To announce that they now wish to be known as the Counter-Terrorism & Resistance Organisation.

On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) a new MIT front group announced themselves to the World under the name "Tajammu Shuhada" which roughly translates as; "Dignity of the Martyrs." Like Harakat al-Qiyam they claim to be Syrian Arabs and veterans of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).

Tajammu Shuhada credibly claimed to have carried out an attack against the SDF at Tayyib al-Fal. A village that sits on the Khobar River. Around 20km (12 miles) from where the Khobar meets the Euphrates. The group claim they were forced into carrying out the attack by Turkey apparently abandoning its plans to invade Shangri-La.

This attack which killed for members of the SDF was also claimed by ISIL. Although with far less credibility.

Turkey's MIT have also been conducting extensive propaganda operations within Shangri-La.

As the SDF have expanded Shangri-La along the Euphrates River to the Syria/Iraq border it has created some tension with the Arab Tribes indigenous to the area. Primarily, like everyone, the tribes don't like a bunch of strangers coming in and telling them what to do.

On November 2nd 2018 (2/11/18) the leader of the Afadlah Tribe, Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi was assassinated in Raqqa City. Likely by members of the Afadlah Tribe who had broken away from their leader to join ISIL.

On November 3rd 2018 (3/11/18) Turkey's MIT released a joint statement online purportedly signed by the leaders of Waldat, Sabkhat, Hulaysay, Fidan and Emirat Tribes. This statement accused the SDF of assassinating Sheikh al-Huwaidi and called on all Arabs to break away from the SDF. So Shangri-La ca; "Be returned to its true people."

That joint statement was a complete forgery. On November 6th 2018 (6/11/18) the leaders of the tribes mentioned put out genuine statements declaring it to be a forgery. The leaders of the Fidan and Emirat Tribes certainly didn't hold back in expressing their dislike of Erdogan.

On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) Harakat al-Qiyam conducted an IED attack in Shadaddi which killed four members of the SDF's civilian police (Asayish). They claimed this attack as retaliation for the SDF's murder of Sheikh al-Huwaidi and called on the Arab tribes to join them in their battle against the SDF.

One specific area of tension between the SDF and the local tribes recently has been over the issue of conscription. Particularly the US' mad rush to liberate the Hajin Pocket at any cost has taken a heavy toll on the Arab elements of the SDF. With many being killed.

This has forced the SDF to increase conscription amongst the Arab tribes. Due to the mad rush these conscripts have been next to no training before being sent into battle. As a result they have been killed in large numbers.

So to the Arab tribes the SDF saying they're coming to conscript their men is the same as the SDF saying they're coming to kill their men.

I have to point out though that following the October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) defeat the SDF and particularly the YPG element wanted to suspend the operation. It was the Shaitat Tribe who threatened to break away and form their own local defence force to continue the battle.

On this issue of conscription tensions boiled over on January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19). Between the SDF and the Albu Khamis Tribe in the town of Mansoura. Which sits on the south bank of the Euphrates around 15km (10 miles) east of the Tabqa Dam.

Amid several days of rioting and the imposition of a curfew there were obviously a few arrests. On February 1st 2019 (1/2/19) Turkey's MIT put around the story that a member of the Albu Khamis Tribe, Habes al-Balikh, had been tortured to death whilst in SDF custody.

This came as quite a surprise to Mr al-Balikh who had just arrived home. Having been released, untortured by the SDF the previous day.

As a result of this high level of Turkish activity within Shangri-La it is likely that many of the attacks attributed to ISIL were actually carried out by Turkey. By my estimates 35 of the 76 attacks I've examined were carried out by Turkey.

The most high profile attack to strike Manbij occurred on January 16th 2019 (16/1/19).

Here an Inghimasi-style suicide bomber struck the Qasr al-Umara cafe in Manbij. Killing 4 Americans and wounding three others. Along with two members of the SDF and five civilians. With a further 19 civilians wounded.

This attack was carried out by ISIL. It was one of the few occasions where their claim of responsibility was genuine.

However it was an incredibly sophisticated attack. Far more sophisticated than anything we've seen so far.

On January 5th 2019 (5/1/19) two British SOF's were wounded at Shafah, in the Hajin Pocket. What happened is that there was a battle going on. As part of that battle ISIL fired a rocket at an SDF vehicle, hitting it. Completely unbeknownst to ISIL that vehicle just happened to contain two British SOF's.

On January 7th 2019 (7/1/19) ISIL conducted an Inghimasi attack against the Personal Affairs Office in Raqqa City. Far from being a secret location the Personal Affairs Office is a public building. So not only are the public aware of it they're actively told to go there. Meaning that it is always crowded.

In Manbij on January 16th 2019 (16/1/19) ISIL didn't detonate an IED next to an SDF convoy. Which happened to contain US troops. Nor did they target a cafe known to be popular with off-duty US troops.

Instead the cafe was targeted during what the US is describing as a; "Local Engagement Operation." One of the Americans killed was a US Navy cryptologist. Another of the Americans killed has been described as a; "civilian contractor." Which is often a euphemistic way of saying; "CIA." A way which ensures they're not bound by the laws which bind the CIA.

So at the time of the attack the US was conducting some sort of secretive intelligence operation. I would not like to speculate on the exact type of the intelligence operation. However its most likely to involve meeting with an informant.

This poses the question of how ISIL were able to find out about what is normally a need-to-know meeting far enough in advance to plot an attack?

One possibility is that ISIL tricked the Americans and the bomber was the person they were meeting with. Another distinct possibility is that ISIL were informed about the meeting by a third party. One with more sophisticated intelligence gathering capabilities and better access to CJTFOIR. 

It is the threat Turkey poses to Shangri-La which has recently sent Britain into a mad panic of the ISIL prisoners the SDF currently hold. Such as Shamima Begum.

Across Europe no-one seems to be questioning Erdogan's imagined right to invade Shangri-La. Annexing it as part of his New Ottoman Empire. The US appears to have appointed a Special Counsel to ensure that it happens.

As a result Britain is now rushing to get all these prisoners processed. Before Turkish troops invade and set them free.


21:00 on 21/2/19 (UK date).