Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 3, Day 3.

Within the Syria there are still five main areas of operation. Reading from right-to-left;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.

Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element makes up around 50% of the SDF. It is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

The SDF is currently supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.

The only area of Shangri-La which has so far not fallen under SDF control is an area known as the; "Hajin Pocket."

This is a roughly 35km (20 mile) long, 10km (6 mile) wide area stretching along the north bank of the Euphrates River. From the town of Hajin to Mount Baghouz, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

This Hajin Pocket has remained under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL).

Within this roughly 350kmsq (210 milesq) Hajin Pocket there are 12 main towns/villages. Reading from the north-west to the south-east;

Hajin, Abu Hassan, Al Kashmah, As Sha'fah, Al Bubadran, Al-Ulayat, As-Sousse/Susah, Al Marashidah, Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira, as-Safafinah, Baghouz Fawqani and Baghouz Tahtani.

Amongst these 12 towns there sit a number of small villages and hamlets. In the space between them ISIL have built up layers of defences.

These defences are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.

On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."

This operation began with two concurrent phases.

The first phase focused on the Hajin Pocket itself. The objective was to isolate it from the Syria/Iraq border and to isolate the towns within it from each other.

The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.

By August 7th 2018 (7/4/18) these first two phases of Operation: Round Up had been completed.

Over the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. It's objective was to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket.

On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) bad weather set in across the area. This allowed ISIL to launch a large, coordinated and highly effective counter-offensive. Across all of the Hajin Pocket.

October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) this ISIL counter-offensive forced the SDF to retreat from the Hajin Pocket and temporarily suspend their operations.

On November 14th 2018 (14/11/18) the SDF resumed their operation to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket. By November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) this now Phase Four of Operation Round Up had established three SDF battle axis';

A north-western axis focused on Hajin.

A south-eastern axis focused on Baghouz.

A northern axis. This time focused on Shafah.

The Baghouz and Shafah axis most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.

However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. To allow advances to be made on the Hajin axis.

On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) the SDF liberated Abu al-Khatir. This is technically a separate village which sits directly adjacent to Hajin's south-eastern tip.

The liberation of Abu al-Khatir marked the complete liberation of Hajin.

On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18) the SDF entered Abu Hassan. The town which sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

By December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) the SDF had liberated Abu Hassan and moved on to Khasham. Which sits around 3km (2 miles) south-east of Abu Hassan.

After just a day of fighting the SDF liberated Khasham on December 29th (29/12/18). They then advanced the roughly 2km (1.2 miles) to the south-east. Joining the battle for Shafah from the north-west.

On January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF were able to declare Shafah liberated. Along with the town of Abu Bubadran. Which sits directly adjacent to Shafah's south-eastern tip.

Following the liberation of Abu Bubadran on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF's north-western axis advanced on al-Ulayat. The town which sits between Abu Bubadran and Sousse.

Al-Ulayat presented no problem the SDF. They swiftly liberated it and joined the battle for Sousse the same day

By January 20th 2019 (20/1/19) Sousse had effectively been liberated. The SDF then moved onto Mouzan. A village sitting with Sousse directly to its north-west and Safafinah directly to its west.

On January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) the SDF liberated Mouzan. With fighting moving to Safafinah and Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira. A town which sits with Mouzan to its north-west.

On January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19) both Safafinah and Shalja were liberated. Amid ISIL's defences collapsing and its fighters fleeing to Al Marashidah. Marashidah sits directly on the banks of the Euphrates. With Sousse to its north and Safafinah to its east.

The SDF chased ISIL into Marashidah with fighting there beginning the following day. January 24th 2019 (24/1/19).

On January 28th 2019 (28/1/19) the SDF fully liberated Marashidah.

This left ISIL in just Baghouz Fawqani. Along with the patches of open land between Marashidah to the west and Baghouz Tahtani to the east.

Throughout this Phase Four of Operation: Round Up the SDF have been battling ISIL within Baghouz Fawqani and its surroundings. Specifically on two sub-axis.

One at the very south-east of the town by the Baghouz Cliffs. A second to the north-west of the town. Roughly where it is separated from Sousse by Mouzan.

On both of these sub-axis' the SDF have been able to make significant progress within Baghouz Fawqani. The reason why the SDF have been unable to formally declare Baghouz Fawqani is that they have not taken full control of the town.

However, by the same token, ISIL themselves have not been in full control of Baghouz Fawqani.

This has provided the SDF with a fantastic opportunity to protect the local civilian population.

On January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) the SDF suspended their efforts to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.

Instead they shifted their focus to evacuating civilians from areas which where not under SDF control but where ISIL did not have enough of a presence to stop them. While CJTFOIR air and artillery strikes forced ISIL to hide in their bunkers.

On Saturday, February 9th 2019 (9/2/19) the SDF determined that there were no longer any uncontrolled areas they could rescue civilians from. So they resumed their operation to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.

The start of this final push saw ISIL hold scattered positions across the al-Murasmah, Shuraydah and al-Kanafirah neighbourhoods. It began with CJTFOIR conducting a day of airstrikes to destroy the roads between those neighbourhoods. In order to isolate ISIL's scattered positions from one another.

On Monday, February 11th 2019 (11/2/19) SDF ground units moved into clear the scattered ISIL positions.

By Tuesday, February 12th 2019 (12/2/19) the SDF had cleared ISIL from the southern portion of the Kanafirah neighbourhood. Including the are around the entrance to the destroyed Bukamal bridge. Linking Baghouz Fawqani with the Syrian controlled town of Abu Kamal.

By Thursday, February 14th 2019 (14/2/19) the SDF had cleared ISIL from the Murasmah neighbourhood and the northern section of the Shuraydah neighbourhood. This involved a particularly horrific incident.

In the Shuraydah neighbourhood the SDF had to assault and capture an ISIL weapons store. Many of the ISIL fighters the SDF were forced to kill in capturing this weapons store were aged around 9 or 10 years old.

Significantly younger than the 15 years of age, the minimum age at which people can fight under the laws of war. The same age at which Shamima Begum claims she was too young to know what she was doing when she chose to join ISIL. So we should all feel sympathetic towards her and forgive her.

On Friday, February 15th 2019 (15/2/19) ISIL were finally pushed out of their remaining positions in both the Shuraydah and Kanafirah neighbours. Leaving them in a tiny area of scrubland all of 1km (0.6 miles) north-west of the Bukamal bridge head.

On Saturday, February 16th 2019 (16/2/19) the US Vice President Mike Pence addressed the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany. He described this remaining area under ISIL control as being a square mile.

That seems to be an overestimate. The SDF put the total area as being just 0.5kmsq. Or 250 yards by 250 yards.

To look at this ISIL controlled area is just a squatters camp. A few vehicles and ramshackle tents standing on a small patch of waste ground.

As such I have decided to designate it; "Camp Futility."

The concern though is that ISIL's Camp Futility is located above the entrance to an underground network of tunnels and bunkers.

Even so I must say that is reminds me of the eviction of the Dale Farm Traveller/Gypsy camp. In the British county of Essex in 2011. Although I seem to remember Dale Farm being larger and better defended.

ISIL's Camp Futility though is probably better armed than Dale Farm. But not by much.

ISIL have lost all of their heavy weapons. Leaving them with just small arms such as rifles, pistols, grenades, explosives and possibly the occasional TOW/MILAN type shoulder launched rocket.

So while Baghouz Fawqani has not technically been fully liberated I would say that at this point the battle is most certainly over.

If this were still a battle then Camp Futility is a military position of the size and type that you would simply wipe out with an airstrike. Or an artillery strike.

However before being forced from Baghouz Fawqani ISIL kidnapped between 600 and 1000 civilians. They are now holding these people in the camp as human shields. So while air and artillery strikes are still on the table they are certainly not desirable options at this point.

Figuring out how to dislodge ISIL from this tiny scrap of wasteland actually presents a pretty unique challenge for even the most experienced military planner. Normally when a military force find themselves cornered in a position this hopeless they just give up and surrender.

So I think the SDF are just going to surround the area and wait. Eventually the adrenaline of battle will wear off and ISIL will realise that they are totally trapped. With dwindling supplies of ammunition, food, water and fuel.

In the event of a prolonged siege everything we know about ISIL tells us that they will first deny dwindling resources to their civilian hostages. So they die before ISIL's fighters. It is also highly likely that ISIL will start killing the hostages.

Therefore it may become necessary for the SDF to raid Camp Futility.

The best model of how to go about this seems to come from Egypt. The August 2013 clearance of the Rabaa Mosque and Al-Nahda Square camps.

In July 2013 the people of Egypt held a second revolution. Overthrowing the corrupt President Mohammad Morsi. Of ISIL's parent organisation the Muslim Brotherhood.

In response the Muslim Brotherhood established two squatter camps in Cairo. At the Rabaa Mosque and al-Nahda Square.   

The occupants of these camps were armed. With weapons such as rifles, pistols, grenades, explosives.

The camps were being used as a base to stage attacks against the Egyptian security forces. They were also used as a place to kidnap, torture and kill civilian opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Following a month of negotiations with the Muslim Brotherhood to vacate the camp the Egyptian security forces were left with no choice other than to raid it. Swamping it with tear gas while sending bulldozers and armoured vehicles to physically take control of the area. All under the careful watch of snipers.

Strangely, under the laws of war the SDF would not be able to use tear gas. Even if they did have access to it.

Of course in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood responsed to the raid by opening fire on the Egyptian security services. Forcing them to return fire. The Muslim Brotherhood then started shooting all the women and children in the camp. Before finally setting fire to the camp. Burning it to the ground.

This saw around 600 people killed. Including 43 members of the Egyptian security service. The Muslim Brotherhood of course claimed that 2,600 civilians had been killed. With a further 3,994 wounded.

Sadly much of the western media were taken in by the Muslim Brotherhood's Atrocity Propaganda.

To the point that many of them seem to have been recruited by the Muslim Brotherhood. Becoming happy warriors in the Muslim Brotherhood's campaign to delegitimise the Egyptian government. By labelling the 2013 as a coup and declaring the clearance of, particularly the Rabaa camp to be a massacre.

All in support of ISIL's Sinai Province terror campaign against Egypt.

Sadly looking at the Khashoggi and Begum cases the western media have still not learnt their lesson about providing material or moral support to genocidal organisations.

18:30 on 19/2/19 (UK date).