Operation Featherweight: Month 54, Week 4, Day 4.

This is really a continuation of what I didn't finish on Monday; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/11/operation-featherweight-month-54-week-4.html

There I stated that I think the SDF's battlefield priority should be reestablishing the containment of ISIL within the Hajin pocket. Both by reinforcing the network of Control Points to the north and taking back control of the border positions from the Iraqi PMF.

Unfortunately CJTFOIR seem to see things differently. On November 11th (11/11/18) a meeting was held between the SDF and CJTFOIR. At the really the demand of the French and American elements of CJTFOIR this saw the SDF announcing they were relaunching phase three of the Round Up operation.

Since then there has been little indication of a coherent effort to liberate the Hajin pocket. There has been fighting across the area. However this seems to be the SDF reacting to renewed ISIL attacks rather than the result of a proactive strategy on the part of the SDF.

On November 20th (20/11/18) the SDF did attempt to open a humanitarian corridor to allow civilians to escape from Ash Shafah. A town which sits around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Abu Hassan and around 6km (3.5 miles) north-west of Sousse. However this corridor collapsed on November 22nd (22/11/18) amid a sustained ISIL counter attack.

The lack of strategy seems to be the result of CJTFOIR becoming fixated on liberating Hajin and Hajin alone.

Hajin is a relatively small town. Covering around 12kmsq (7 milesq) and containing just five main roads it is roughly one fifth of the size of Raqqa City. Despite this it is believed to be ISIL's de facto global capital. 

It is also believed to be the current location of ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Suspicions which were increased on November 16th (16/11/18) with reports that two of al-Baghdadi's sons had been killed there. Abu Hafas and Baghdadi's favoured second son Motaz al-Badri.

This apparent obsession by CJTFOIR to liberate Hajin and capture of kill al-Baghdadi at all costs has seen the SDF focus most, if not all of its efforts on advancing from Bahrah to Hajin.

Initially they made some good progress. The mere announcement of the resumption of operations seems to have been enough to prompt 15 ISIL fighters to surrender to the SDF at Bahrah on November 13th (13/11/18).

On November 14th (14/11/18) the SDF made their first advance towards Hajin. Liberating 15 ISIL fighting positions. Along with 2 tunnel systems and 7 buildings used either for weapons production or weapons storage.

With the support of CJTFOIR the SDF's elite Counter-Terrorism Force (YAT) also conducted a raid around Raqqa City which captured the suspect believed to have ordered the killing of Sheikh al-Huwadi. The leader of the Afadalah Tribe the murder of Sheikh al-Huwadi on November 2nd (2/11/18) was intended to get all of the local tribes in Shangri-La to turn against the SDF. 

Since November 14th (14/11/18) though progress has slowed. With no significant advances reported.

This Saturday (24/11/18) the weather once again turned against the SDF and CJTFOIR. This loss of visibility allowed ISIL to launch a counter attack from Hajin on Bahrah. It was coordinated with ISIL sleeper cells attempting to overrun Gharanji. The next town after Bahrah sitting around 5km (3 miles) to the north-west.

The attack on Gharanji failed almost as soon as it was launched. The attack on Bahrah though was initially extremely successful. The SDF were forced out of almost all of the town allowing ISIL to ransack and widely loot it. 

Following the arrival of reinforcements, from reportedly the Shaitat Tribe, the SDF were able to reestablish full control of Bahrah by Monday (26/11/18). However not before more than 90 SDF fighters had been killed in clashes.

This obsession with liberating Hajin at all costs seems to be CJTFOIR's and CJTFOIR's alone. It is perhaps appropriate then that they have been doing the bulk of the work. Massively increasing their use of airstrikes on almost exclusively Hajin.

For example in the 24hrs leading up to November 9th (9/11/18) CJTFOIR conducted 50 airstrikes. In the 24hrs leading up to November 14th (14/11/18) CJTFOIR conducted 38 airstrikes. In the 24hrs leading up to November 16th (16/11/18) 34 airstrikes were conducted. A figure which seems to have become something of a daily average.

The Iraqi Air Force (IQAF) has also conducted airstrikes in the Hajin pocket. Such as on October 30th (30/10/18) and November 20th (20/11/18). Those periodic strikes on the Mount Baghuz area though seem separate from CJTFOIR's operations and focused on protecting ISF troops guarding the border. 

These CJTFOIR airstrikes are being successful in killing ISIL fighters.

For example the 50 airstrikes of November 9th (9/11/18) included one which killed the senior ISIL commander Abu Omar al-Darya and the six bodyguards he was travelling with. Airstrikes on November 11th (11/11/18) killed 55 ISIL fighters. The airstrikes of November 16th (16/11/18) killed 17 ISIL fighters, including al-Baghdadi's two sons.

However these CJTFOIR airstrikes are also killing an increasing number of civilians.

It's reported that 40 civilians were killed in the November 9th (9/11/18) strikes. The November 16th (16/11/18) airstrikes are reported to have killed 23 civilians. While airstrikes on November 17th (17/11/18) are reported to have killed 43 civilians including 17 children.

Those reports can be somewhat misleading though. The November 17th (17/11/18) airstrike actually killed 7 civilians. The other 36 deaths including the 17 children were of ISIL family members. 

As an organisation dedicated to destruction and violence all members of ISIL families are trained to and expected to fight. Women in the al-Khansaa religious enforcement brigades and even children in the Cubs of the Caliphate.

Therefore I would not class those 36 ISIL family members killed as civilians. However many of the ISIL members in the Hajin pocket are local to the area and members of local tribes. I think CJTFOIR and the SDF will have a tough time explaining the deaths of those women and children to the other members of their tribes.

My main concern though is that when these airstrikes are killing ISIL fighters they are also destroying buildings. Along with roads and the water and sewage pipes and electrical supply cables that run along them.

This current airstrike filled tantrum by CJTFOIR is something we've seen before. In the 2017 Battle of Raqqa City.

As I've said before I think that CJTFOIR pushed the SDF into the Battle of Raqqa City at completely the wrong time. They should have first properly secured the boundaries of Shangri-La as they are doing now. Then move to liberate what would have then been ISIL's extremely isolated capital.

Even as CJTFOIR were pushing the SDF into the Battle of Raqqa City the Syrians were conducting their own operations to liberate all of the central part of Syria from ISIL. Just four days after the start of the Battle of Raqqa City the Syrians reached the Syria/Iraq border at al-Tanf on June 10th 2017 (10/6/17). 

It was at this point CJTFOIR finally seemed to realise that the SDF was in a race against the Syrians to see who would liberate the areas such as Hajin on the north bank of the Euphrates. A race they were in no position to run because they were tied up in the Battle of Raqqa City.

As the Battle of Raqqa City dragged first from July into August and from August into September there was a massive spike in CJTFOIR airstrikes. In an effort to rush the battle to victory.

By the end of the battle 1,300 civilians had been confirmed killed by these CJTFOIR airstrikes. With a further 1,900 civilians suspected of being killed by CJTFOIR airstrikes. The United Nations (UN) declared that a full 80% of Raqqa City had been left uninhabitable by the battle's end.

Some 13 months on not much has changed in Raqqa City. Buildings have not been rebuilt. Roads are still blocked by craters and rubble. Crucially the two main bridges across the Euphrates which link the north and south of the city are still as unusable as when CJTFOIR airstrikes blew them up. Forcing people to cross the river using time consuming barges and boats.

The rubble which still litters the streets of Raqqa City remains packed with rotting corpses and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's). Just last Wednesday (21/11/18) two members of the SDF's Explosive Ordinance Disposal (EOD) teams were killed while attempting to defuse a leftover IED in the Firdous district of Raqqa City.

Those civilians who do remain in Raqqa City are starting to look back favourably at the time ISIL were in charge. Unlike the SDF it seems ISIL were able to fix the holes in the roads, keep the water running and the electricity on.

The situation in Raqqa City remains so bad that most of its residents have still not returned home. Instead being left in makeshift and poorly supplied Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camps across Shangri-La.

Particularly as the second winter draws in 13 months is a long time to be struck in an IDP camp unable to return home.         

People are being reminded of how unpleasant it is to be stuck in an IDP camp by the fact it is shaping up to be a harsh winter. Across the Syria and Iraq region there has been a lot of extreme weather recently.

In the Sudetenland, in the north-west of Syria the Deir Ballut IDP was partially destroyed by heavy rain and flooding on October 27th (27/10/18). In northern Iraq the Duhok IDP camp, for mainly Yezidis, was similarly damaged by heavy rain and flooding on November 23rd (23/11/18). If you've ever been in a tent during a rainstorm you'd know it's pretty unpleasant even if you're not flooded out.  

The slow pace of reconstruction and particularly the conditions in the IDP camps have led to some anti-SDF protests across Shangri-La. 

Such as by residents of the Mabrouka IDP camp near Tel Abyad/Serekanyie on October 20th (20/10/18). By residents of the Arisha IDP camp near Hasakah City on October 22nd (22/10/18). More recently at Shadaddi on November 20th (20/11/18).

Even in areas which have not seen formal protests there is still much talk of discontent over living conditions.

Although it is their responsibility the slow progress of reconstruction is not really the SDF's fault. They are doing their best with extremely limited resources.

Shangri-La is not a nation state. The political arm of the SDF, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) is not a national government. So while it is has resources like farmland and oil and gas fields under its control it cannot export those commodities. Nor can it seek loans from other nations or private lenders such as banks.

Instead the SDF/SDC have to rely on international aid bodies such as the UN and the Red Cross along with donations from national governments. 

These international aid agencies and national governments seem to be falling over themselves to provide aid to Al Qaeda controlled camps in the Sudetenland. Or the ISIL controlled Ruqban IDP camp near al-Tanf. 

Yet they seem to have little interest in helping civilians in Shangri-La. For example the UN provides 98% funding for the Sudetenland but only 80% funding for Hasakah Province. 

Given the challenges the SDF are facing with reconstruction it seem crazy that CJTFOIR would give them even more reconstruction work to do by wildly lashing out with airstrikes in Hajin.

Alongside ISIL the SDF are also having to contend with attacks by the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT). Through the front organisation the Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ).

On November 4th (4/11/18) HAQ who used to be known as Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar announced they were once again changing their name. They now wish to be known as; "The Counter-Terrorism & Resistance Organisation." Clearly reflecting MIT's view that the SDF are terrorists and ISIL are merely freedom fighters.

Since then HAQ/MIT have carried out 12 attacks on the SDF across Shangri-La. Resulting in the deaths of 19 members of the SDF. Including 4 members of the Ayaish, the SDF's civilian police force. HAQ/MIT also killed a civilian in a gun attack on a Mosque in Hurayji on November 9th (9/11/18).

Of those HAQ/MIT attacks a number were particularly noteworthy.

On November 20th (20/11/18) HAQ/MIT snipers killed one member of the SDF in Tel Abyad/Serekanyie. Sitting right on the border between Shangri-La and Turkey this is the furthest north HAQ/MIT have been known to operate. The town has long been threatened with invasion by the regular Turkish military (TSK). Most recently on October 28th (28/10/18) when the TSK started shelling it from within Turkey.

On November 21st (21/11/18) a HAQ/MIT detonated an IED in Shadaddi. It was this attack which killed four members of the Ayaish. HAQ/MIT released a statement dedicating the attack to Sheikh al-Huwadi. In an attempt to blame the SDF for the killing and present themselves as the defenders of the local Arab tribes.

Prior to announcing their name change HAQ/MIT released fake statements claiming to be from the Waldat, Sabkhat, Hulaysay, Fidan and Emirat Tribes on November 3rd (3/11/18). These fake declarations blamed the SDF for the killing of Sheikh al-Huwadi. They went on to call for all of Shangri-La's tribes to break away from the SDF so Raqqa can be returned to its people. By which they mean HAQ/MIT.

On November 3rd (3/11/18) the Waldat and Sabkhat Tribes issued statements confirming the HAQ/MIT statements in their name were fakes. On November 15th (15/11/18) the al-Faris Tribe went one step further issuing a statement praising the SDF and condemning Turkey for trying to cause instablity.

HAQ/MIT's attempts to sow discord went so far as to claim an attack which never happened. They entirely falsely claimed to have killed three members of the SDF in Manbij on November 20th (20/11/18).  

HAQ/MIT went on to claim that this gun attack targeted a secret meeting between the SDF and Syrian government officials. Something they'd completely invented in an attempt to portray the SDF as allied with the Syrian government. 

Buoyed by their first military victory since February 2017 ISIL are not just lashing out from the Hajin pocket against the SDF in Shangri-La. They are also lashing out against the Syrians on the south bank of the Euphrates.

On November 2nd (2/11/18) ISIL attack the Syrians at al-Jalaa. A town sitting directly across the Euphrates from Abu Hassan. ISIL attacked it for a second time on November 8th (8/11/18).

The following day on November 9th (9/11/18) ISIL were able to use a roadside IED to attack a Syrian convoy in al-Salihiyah. A town sitting just across the Euphrates from Bahrah.

These attacks have been accompanied by periodic ISIL artillery fire on Syrian positions along the south bank of the Euphrates. Particularly around Abu Kamal. 

The Syrians have periodically responded in kind.   

20:30 on 29/11/18 (UK date).