Operation Featherweight: Month 53, Week 4, Day 7.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La: This is located in north-east Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River. If you look at a map of Syria the Euphrates River is the big blue line.

Shangri-La has long been the main battleground between the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

The SDF is supposedly supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.

The boundaries of Shangri-La were properly established by an SDF operation codenamed; "Operation: Cizre Storm." This was launched in September 2017.

Cizre Storm saw the SDF advance from positions already under their control. Essentially an imaginary line in the desert between the town of Madan on the banks of the Euphrates and the town of Shadaddi.

From this Madan-Shadaddi Line the SDF advanced first to the Khobar River and then to the Syria/Iraq border. Fighting and liberating territory from ISIL as they went.

This was done on two main axis;

One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.

A second that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.

On November 25th 2018 (25/11/18) the SDF reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan.

On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the SDF liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

This left ISIL in control of a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. Centred around the town of Hajin this is known as the; "Hajin Pocket."

On March 6th 2018 (6/5/18) SDF operations against ISIL in Shangri-La had to be suspended. Due to Turkey's invasion of Afrin Canton. An area under SDF control in the north-west of Syria.

On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up." This was intended to target and liberate the Hajin Pocket

This Cizre Storm operation, let alone the Round Up operation should have been launched far earlier. It was the natural next step after the completion of the SDF's "Operation: Wrath of Euphrates."

Launched in November 2016 the Wrath of Euphrates operation was conducted in the three phases;

The first phase of the operation was to advance south from the town of Ayn Issa. Already under SDF control Ayn Issa sits around 80km (50 miles) south-east of Kobane. The city the YPG famously defended against ISIL in six month battle between the autumn of 2014 and the spring of 2015.

This first phase of the operation was completed on November 25th 2016 (25/11/16). It saw the SDF liberate roughly 600kmsq (360 milesq) of territory and take up positions roughly 55km (30 miles) south-east of Ayn Issa.

The second phase of the operation launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) and saw the SDF sweep down the banks of the Euphrates. From where it enters Syria from Turkey to Lake Assad which is formed from the Euphrates at the town of Tabqa. This is around 85km (50 miles) south-west of Ayn Issa.

This second phase was completed on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17). It saw the SDF take up positions at Jabour Castle at Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam and liberate roughly 3,200kmsq (1,900 milesq) of territory between Lake Assad and the Ayn Issa line.

The third phase was launched on February 4th 2017 (4/2/17). It objective was to secure the territory north-west of Raqqa City. ISIL's de facto capital at the time. This would cut Raqqa City off from Deir-ez-Zour City. The other major ISIL held city on the Euphrates.

Raqqa City sits around 75km (45 miles) south-east of Ayn Issa. While Deir-ez-Zour City sits around  220km (130 miles) south-east of Ayn Issa

On March 6th 2017 (6/3/17) the SDF secured control of the main Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road around 6km (3.5 miles) south-east of the town of Madan. Madan sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour.

This third phase was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions around al-Karamah. Which is roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

In the process the SDF fought and drove ISIL from another roughly 1000kmsq (600 milesq) of territory. This brought the total territory liberated in the operation to in excess of 4,200kmsq (2,500 milesq).

It was considered far too dangerous to leave ISIL in control of the Tabqa Dam. They could simply blow it up and send all of Lake Assad flooding everything down river in a massive, destructive blue wave.

So on March 22nd 2017 (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate both the town of Tabqa and the Tabqa Dam. This was completed on May 11th (11/5/17).

Having liberated Tabqa and secured Taqba Dam the logical next step would have been for the SDF to launch the Cizre Storm operation. Pushing down from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Syria/Iraq border.

I personally hate counter-factuals.

However still being in control of their de facto capital Raqqa City and the major city of Deir-ez-Zour the towns in the Hajin Pocket were likely to be of limited value to ISIL. Meaning that they would not fight for them as hard as they are fighting for them now.

Establishing the boundaries of Shangri-La in the spring of 2017 would have ended any question of the Syrians themselves liberating the area along the banks of the Euphrates. Along with the area to the north-west of the river. It then would have clearly become the SDF and CJTFOIR's responsibility.

With its boundaries properly established Shangri-La could then have become a safe haven. In fact if not name. A zone in which Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP's) from other areas of Syria could be cared for by the United Nations and other international aid bodies long before they became refugees.

Securing Baqhuz Fawqani and it's river crossing to Al Bukamal/Abu Kamal would also have allowed the SDF coalition to expand to include members of the Southern Front coalition. Including those being trained by CJTFOIR at the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf. Even if not all elements of the Southern Front would be compatible with the SDF.

If the SDF coalition were able to expand to include fragments of the Southern Front coalition that would have extended their control all the way across southern Syria. Really up to the southern boundary of the Sudetenland. Including around the capital Damascus.

Unfortunately CJTFOIR had become obsessed with liberating Raqqa City.

So on June 6th 2017 (6/6/17) the SDF were forced into a battle to liberate what was then ISIL's de facto capital. This battle dragged on until October 20th 2017 (20/10/17).

CJTFOIR's obsession with liberating Raqqa City really stemmed from the battle to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul. This disastrous operation was launched under then US President Barack Obama on October 16th 2016 (16/10/16).

Democrat President Obama's thinking was that a big, high profile battle would convince US voters that US Democrats were not allied with ISIL. A quick victory would then propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in the US Presidential Election on November 8th 2016 (8/11/16).

In order to secure this quick victory Obama's strategy centred around leaving the entire west of Mosul undefended. So ISIL would be able to flee back across the border to Raqqa City in Syria.

Obama's desire to preserve ISIL at all cost caused a huge amount of consternation. Not only amongst NATO and the CJTFOIR coalition but across the globe. Eventually Iranian backed Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias moved in to close this; "Falls Road" to the west of Mosul.

Stinging from this global criticism that it was still allied with ISIL CJTFOIR became desperate to liberate Raqqa City in order to prove their detractors wrong.

The Battle of Raqqa City was launched on June 6th 2017 (6/6/17). The astonishingly poorly planned Battle of Mosul continued to drag on until July 20th 2017 (20/7/17).

What made CJTFOIR's decision to launch the Battle of Raqqa City in June 2017 even more inexplicable was that by then the Syrians had already launched their push across Syria to the Euphrates River.

Sadly I will have to pick this up on Monday.

17:40 on 2/11/18 (UK date)