Operation Featherweight: Month 54, Week 1 Day 1.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/11/operation-featherweight-month-53-week-4.html

What made CJTFOIR's decision to launch the Battle of Raqqa City in June 2017 even more inexplicable was that by then the Syrians had already launched their push across Syria towards the Euphrates River.

This saw the Syrians start to push from west-to-east across the centre of the country in May 2017. In the north of the country they set out from Aleppo City. In the south of the country they set out from the capital Damascus.

On June 10th 2017 (10/6/17) the Syrians southern axis reached and liberated the town of al-Tanf on the Syria/Iraq border. Just four days after CJTFOIR had forced the SDF into the Battle of Raqqa City.

On July 30th 2017 (30/7/17) the Syrians northern axis reached and liberated the town of Dalhah. This blocked the SDF's advance along the southern banks of the Euphrates.

On August 6th 2017 (6/8/17) the Syrians northern and southern axis' converged on the town of As-Suknah. This sits in central Syria around 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra and around 120km (70 miles) south-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.

Throughout the conflict the Syrians have maintained a presence in Deir-ez-Zour City. Despite numerous attempts by ISIL to take full control of the city besieged Syrian forces managed to hold onto two areas in the south-west and south-east of the city.

The Syrians liberation of as-Suknah was the first stage of an operation to advance on Deir-ez-Zour City breaking the siege.

The liberation of as-Suknah also marked the start of a race between the Syrians and the SDF.

If the Syrians were able to reach Deir-ez-Zour City before the SDF they could cross the Euphrates and cut off the SDF at Shadaddi. Leaving the area between the Madan-Shadaddi Line and the Syria/Iraq border under Syrian rather than SDF control. An area that includes several large oil fields.

Unfortunately on August 6th (6/8/17) the SDF were in no position to start running that race. CJTFOIR had committed them to the Battle of Raqqa City on June 6th 2017 (6/6/17). A battle which dragged on until October 17th 2017 (17/10/17).

With the liberation of as-Suknah CJTFOIR finally realised their massive strategic failure. They then went into something of a blind panic. This saw them attempting to rush the Battle of Raqqa City to an end by massively increasing their use of airstrikes against the city.

Under significantly loosened rules of engagement these increased CJTFOIR airstrikes needlessly killed a large number of civilians. They also almost completely flattened Raqqa City destroying almost all of the civilian infrastructure including hospitals, homes and water and sanitation services.

Since the liberation of Raqqa City no real effort has been made to restore that civilian infrastructure. Little effort has been made to even de-mine the city and bury the dead.

Facing a second winter in Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camps which the UN and other international aid agencies refuse to supply local people are understandably getting restless.

Alongside bombing Raqqa City into oblivion CJTFOIR finally, belatedly launched the Cizre Storm operation on September 9th (9/9/17). However until the Battle of Raqqa city was won more than a month later this was conducted by wholly insufficient troops and was more of a statement of intent rather than a legitimate military operation. 

Aside from opening the route to as-Suknah and then Deir-ez-Zour City the Syrians liberation of al-Tanf on June 10th 2017 (10/6/17) dealt another strategic blow to CJTFOIR. In encircled the base designated "Bobby Sands" they'd been operating close to the town.

CJTFOIR had been using the Bobby Sands base to train groups which were part of the Southern Front coalition. At the time these operated across southern Syria. Particularly in the Yarmouk River Basin area close to the capital Damascus.

By encircling the Bobby Sands base the Syrians ended any possibility of the SDF expanding to include elements of the Southern Front. Giving them control across the south and south-west of the country alongside the north-west.

With the base being surrounded and rendered operationally non-viable Britain withdrew its SOF's.The US though continue to maintain a presence at Bobby Sands.

Having completely misunderstood what the Israelis have been saying to them the US believe the Bobby Sands base is vital to prevent Iran establishing a road route from Iraq. Via the H2 Highway to Damascus. Apparently even if that involves them losing influence over the entire rest of the country including multiple air bases Iran can fly in to.

The encirclement of the Bobby Sands base also left CJTFOIR with the problem of what to do with the groups in the Southern Front coalition they had been training there.

With the exception of the Revolutionary Commando Army/Jaish Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT) who refused CJTFOIR decided to dump these Southern Front groups on the SDF in Shangri-La. In the hope they could make up the numbers at the start of the Cizre Storm operation.

The YPG and latterly the SDF's real skill has been in coalition building.

We talk about the Battle of Kobane being fought by exclusively by the YPG. In reality though it was in that battle the SDF was formed. Even if it took a while to come up with the name.

Fragments of the FSA known as Euphrates Volcano/Burqan Furqat joined with the YPG to fight ISIL at Kobane. The establishment of Shangri-La was the result of combat but also the SDF expanding by forming alliances with other FSA fragments and local tribal forces.

The People's Protection Units (YPG) primary mission has been to protect local people. From the Syrian government and Islamist terrorist groups such as ISIL and Al Qaeda. The SDF was created by other forces accepting that primary mission and making it their own.

The Southern Front however was created and trained by CJTFOIR for one purpose and one purpose only. To ally itself with other Sunni Islamist groups such as ISIL and Al Qaeda to fight the Secular Shia Syrian government.

The Southern Front groups from Bobby Sands were simply imposed on the SDF by CJTFOIR. Without them going through the usual coalition building process and accepting the mission of the SDF. This immediately caused problems.

The biggest problem has been caused by the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar.

Immediately upon being transported to Shangri-La by CJTFOIR they refused to join the SDF and changed their name to the Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HaQ). Taking their orders from Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) they are now actively fighting alongside ISIL against the SDF within Shangri-La.

The other Southern Front groups transported to Shangri-La by CJTFOIR did at least agree to join the SDF. Forming the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC).

They though have failed to properly integrate with the SDF's command structure refusing to fully accept the SDF's mission. Instead they still try to fight alongside ISIL against the Syrian government.

The clearest example of this came during the early days of the Cizre Storm operation which launched on September 9th 2017 (9/9/17).

On September 13th 2017 (13/9/17) the SDF reached the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City.

Rather than continuing with the mission by advancing towards the Khobar River the DEZ-MC simply stood still for five days. Demanding permission to fight for ISIL against the Syrians in Deir-ez-Zour City. Apparently not realising they were in a massive race with the Syrians to reach the Syria/Iraq border.

Despite the immense hostility towards them by CJTFOIR and the US in particular the Syrians and Russia have actually been behaving very reasonably throughout all this.

Having arrived at as-Suknah on August 6th 2017 (6/8/17) the Syrians went onto liberate Deir-ez-Zour City on November 3rd 2017 (3/11/17). They then went on to liberate all the towns and villages on the south bank of the Euphrates.

On November 19th 2017 (19/11/17) the Syrians liberated the town of Al-Bukamal/Abu Kamal which sits right on the Syria/Iraq border. From there it would have been extremely easy for them to cross the Euphrates and move to cut off the SDF. Who at the time were still fighting ISIL at the juncture where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.

Instead though the Syrians and the Russians have entered into an unspoken agreement to allow the SDF to fully establish Shangri-La along the north-east banks of the Euphrates. No matter how long it takes them.

As I've mentioned the Cizre Storm operation had to be terminated on March 6th 2018 (6/3/18). Due to Turkey's invasion of Afrin Canton. An SDF controlled territory in the north-west of Syria.

The end of the Cizre Storm operation saw the SDF in control of the Buwarah Salt Pan area on the Syria/Iraq border. They were also in control of the town of al-Bahrah. This sits on the north bank of the Euphrates around 40km (25 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border.

This left ISIL in control of a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. Centred around the town of Hajin this is known as the; "Hajin Pocket."

On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."

This operation began with two concurrent phases.

The first phase focused directly on the Hajin pocket. Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.

This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th (4/5/18). Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th 2018 (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.

The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.

Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.

On August 7th 2018 (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up.

As a result the opening two phases of the Round Up operation were declared at an end. There was then a short operational pause to prepare for the start of the third phase of the operation.

That third phase of the Round Up operation was launched on the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18). It's objective was to completely liberate the Hajin Pocket from ISIL.

At around 18:05 on 5/11/18 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:40 on 5/11/18 (UK date) to add;

It is said that in war you seize the initiative by launching operations at the time on your choosing.

This was completely the wrong time to launch the third phase of the Round Up operation. It seems to have been chosen for no other reason than to announce an operation on the 9/11 anniversary.

Much of August and September 2018 were taken up over speculation of a Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland. An area in north-west Syria directly to the south of Afrin Canton. The rumour was that such an operation would be launched on September 10th (10/9/18).

The Sudetenland is Syria's trashcan. There is nothing and no-one there which has any place in Syria's future or the future of the wider World. It is totally dominated by Al Qaeda.

NATO has been fighting Al Qaeda in Afghanistan for 17 years now. You'd think then if Syria and Russia wanted to go and kill a lot of Al Qaeda fighters in north-west Syria NATO would just happily accept the favour.

The belief that the Sudetenland should be in any way protected from a Syrian operation shows a complete misunderstanding of the conflict. What belies and even worse misunderstanding of the conflict is the belief that any Syrian operation in the Sudetenland would be a single, large offensive.

The Sudetenland is much larger than a single city or even a province. All told it covers around 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq). Spread across four Syrian provinces. In that area you have in excess of 30 cities, towns or other significant population centres.

Therefore rather than being a single, large offensive any Syrian operation in the Sudetenland would be much more like the Abu Duhur Air Base offensive. Between October 2017 and January 2018 the Syrians advanced on the Abu Duhur Air Base liberating the Hoss Plateau on the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland in the process.

That Abu Duhur operation put great pressure on Turkey which operates 13 small military bases across the Sudetenland. A similar offensive now would again put immense pressure on Turkey to either fight Syria directly or allow the offensive to continue.

At the best of times Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan likes to lash out. When he's under pressure he is particularly likely to lash out against his allies in order to bully them into supporting him.

Put under pressure in the Sudetenland Erdogan would be extremely likely to lash out against CJTFOIR and the SDF in Shangri-La.

The main mechanism Erdogan has to lash out in Shangri-La is HaQ. Having been transported into Shangri-La by them in the summer of 2017 CJTFOIR has done precious little to eliminate the HaQ threat. 

HaQ operate as a clandestine terrorist group. That means rather than launching conventional military offensives they rely on Improvised Explosive Device (IED) and sniper attacks against both the SDF and the civilian population. Across the entire Shangri-La area.

The surest way to eliminate the HaQ threat is for Turkey to simply stop funding, arming and directing the group. You would certainly think that is something CJTFOIR would be able to demand of its ally.

Failing that HaQ need to be dealt with by a counter-insurgency operation. This is labour intensive and time consuming process that involves gathering intelligence on the group and its members. When HaQ's members and hide outs are identified they need to be raided and eliminated by specialist forces. Similar to the SDF's Counter-Terrorism Force (YAT).

While waiting for the counter-insurgency operation to take effect the SDF need to increase their patrols around key areas and increase their use of roadblocks to inhibit HaQ's movement. That requires manpower.

Erdogan also has the ability to invade Shangri-La directly. As he invaded Afrin Canton in January 2018 and as he invaded the adjoining Garvaghy Road area in August 2016. The Garvaghy Road area directly borders Shangri-La to the west.

In order to deter Erdogan from lashing out in this way the SDF need to deploy large numbers of troops. Both to the boundary between Shangri-La and Garvaghy Road and to the border between Shangri-La and Turkey to the north. Again that requires manpower.

Amid these twin Turkish threats the SDF simply wouldn't have the resources to also conduct an operation against ISIL in the Hajin Pocket. Therefore their only option was to contain ISIL within the Hajin Pocket until the Sudetenland had been liberated and the Turkish threat had dissipated.

CJTFOIR decided to push the SDF into phase three of the Round Up operation regardless.

I will cover the progress of that operation in more detail tomorrow. However it has ended in complete failure.

Over the weekend of October 26th (26/10/18) to October 29th (29/10/18) ISIL launched a large offensive against the DEZ-MC echelon of the SDF's lines. The DEZ-MC echelon panicked and scattered resulting in roughly 100 of their fighters being picked off by ISIL.

With the SDF's lines broken they had to withdraw completely from the Hajin pocket. Including from Baghuz Tahtani which they'd liberated back on May 14th (14/5/18). 

Fortunately the Iranian-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have stepped in to tidy up CJTFOIR's mistakes. They've sealed the Syria/Iraq border on the Iraqi side. Meaning that ISIL continue to be contained with the Hajin Pocket.

20:45 on 5/11/18 (UK date).