Operation Featherweight: Month 54, Week 2, Day 1.

Really a direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/11/operation-featherweight-month-54-week-1_6.html

In that post I explained why I would not have planned to launch the SDF's Hajin Pocket operation in September as CJTFOIR insisted.

My main concern is that autumn gives way to winter the weather worsens. Inhibiting CJTFOIR aircraft's ability to defend against one of ISIL's main weapons. The S-VBIED. Therefore I would have left ISIL contained within the Hajin Pocket until the spring of 2019.

The only way I would contemplate launching the operation sooner than that is if the SDF were widely equipped with guided anti-tank weapons. Such as the MILAN or BGM-TOW systems. These can be used by infantry troops on the ground against S-VBIED's. Reducing the reliance on CJTFOIR airstrikes.

Even then I would still wait until the situation in the Sudetenland is resolved. That would likely see Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan placed under extreme pressure as the Turkish troops stationed there were forced to stand back or attack Syrian and Russian forces directly. Under that pressure Erdogan is extremely likely to lash out against the SDF and CJTFOIR.

Providing an update on the Sudetenland is really my next task. It is a complicated situation.

For example of September 17th (17/9/18) a Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft was shot down during an Israeli airstrike on the edges of the Sudetenland. This prompted Russia to supply Syria with the more advanced S-300 air defence system. To deter future Israeli attacks. Since then Israel has rumoured that it has conducted further operations within Syria. However there have been no further airstrikes.

If this is true than Israel's actions represent only a fraction of the murky, hush-hush things going on the in Sudetenland. Given the international community's concern over a militarily impossible all out assault on the Sudetenland I feel I'm the only westerner engaging with this on a strategic level.

As it turns out the international community has moved to protect Erdogan from any pressure within the Sudetenland.

This effort has been led by France. They deployed their missile Frigate Auvergne to the Mediterranean. The threat being that this would be used to support Turkey in any direct conflict with Syrian and Russian forces.

In response to this pressure Russia and Syria were forced to agree a De-Militarised Zone (DMZ) plan for the Sudetenland. This was agreed on September 17th (17/9/18) and came into effect on October 10th (10/10/18). Since then it has proved to be an absolute joke.

The first conceit of the DMZ plan is it requires you to pretend that the Sudetenland isn't under the occupation of the Al Qaeda led, ISIL protecting Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). Instead you are forced to pretend there are two rival forces.

The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Front for the Liberation of the Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Surriya (JTS). You are also required to pretend that HTS have absolutely nothing to do with Al Qaeda and JTS are just an oppressed group of moderates simply yearning for democratic change.

The DMZ plan requires HTS to withdraw entirely from the designated zone. Something which has simply not happened.

JTS are allowed to remain within the designated zone but are required to withdraw their heavy weapons. This has largely happened. However it has not stopped JTS using those heavy weapons from outside of the designated zone. Particularly against the civilian population in Aleppo City.

In short the DMZ plan has done nothing other than protect Turkish and Al Qaeda forces as they continue to occupy Syrian territory and launch attacks against Syrian civilians.

Alongside the DMZ plan Erdogan has been pushing his wild conspiracy theory that Saudi Arabia murdered Muslim Brotherhood extremist Jamal Khashoggi. With that Erdogan has been hoping to achieve a number of things.

At the very least he hopes to secure a large financial payment from Saudi Arabia. To prop up Turkey's failing economy.

Ideally Erdogan would like to whip up international pressure to see Saudi Arabia lift the blockade it has placed on Qatar and by extension Turkey. A blockade imposed not least due to Qatar and Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood. When we talk about the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam in Syria it is simply a polite way of saying; "Qatar."

By attempting to link Saudi Arabia with US President Trump Erdogan also had dreams of sweeping the Democrats back into power at the November 6th (6/11/18) US midterm elections. So Erdogan could once again enjoy the protection afforded to him under the Democrat Party of former US President Barack Obama.

Despite Erdogan's longstanding reputation for just completely making things up many in the west simply eaten up his Khashoggi story with a spoon. In order to relieve the pressure ahead of the midterms the US forced Saudi Arabia to falsely admit to the killing on October 20th (20/10/18).

Since then Saudi Arabia has moved to punish the US. By withdrawing from an agreement which saw US conduct mid-flight refuelling of Saudi aircraft as they flew missions against Yemen. This was done to reduce US influence over the Yemen conflict and give Saudi Arabia much more operational autonomy.

It seems though there is no fact western journalists will not ignore or simply change in an effort to publish stories they hope will damage US President Trump.

One thing that Erdogan has certainly achieved through his Khashoggi claims is to make himself the centre of attention. On October 27th (27/10/18) he was able to force France, Germany and Russia to attend a summit on Syria in Istanbul, Turkey. He felt powerful enough to exclude the US, the UK and other members of CJTFOIR from this summit.

The summit turned out to be an exercise in the nations attending reaffirming their commitment to protect Erdogan's annexation of Syria.

It went on to discuss the mechanics of using that annexation to force Syria to amend its constitution to ensure the complete equality for those occupying the Sudetenland. Exactly as Czechoslovakia was forced to amend its constitution to include the Nazi mandated Karlsbader Programm in 1938.

This summit was the result of the bizarre situation European politics finds itself in. Russia can't stand up to Erdogan because France keeps threatening to attack Russia. Meanwhile France can't stand up to Erdogan because French banks are so heavily exposed to Turkey's failing economy.

Rather than being a summit of powerful leaders it seems to be more of a coalition of failure. The following day Germany's Head of Government Angela Merkel handed in her notice to announce her retirement from politics.

Making Erdogan feel as though he is the centre of the universe has certainly stopped him lashing out against the SDF and CJTFOIR because he feels under pressure. Erdogan is now lashing out against the SDF and CJTFOIR because he has been allowed to feel too comfortable in his position.

The main way in which Erdogan has been lashing out in Shangri-La is through the Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) terror group.

Harakat al-Qiyam began life as the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar. A faction of the Southern Front coalition trained by CJTFOIR at the Bobby Sands base. Following the encirclement of the Bobby Sands base in June 2017 they were transferred by CJTFOIR to Shangri-La. On the understanding they would join the SDF.

Upon arrival the Army of Revolutionaries changed their name to the Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam and stated carrying out attacks against the SDF. On behalf of the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) which funds, arms and directs their activities.

Although they have improved slightly HAQ have this habit of putting out statements claiming their attacks in Arabic. However if you try to translate these statements into English by putting them straight into translation software such as Google Translate you end up with nonsense.

Instead what you first have to do is use software to translate the Arabic statements into Turkish. You then translate the Turkish statement into English. The people writing HAQ's statements don't speak Arabic. They speak Turkish and use computer software to translate the statements into Arabic.

In the period between the DMZ agreement on September 17th (17/9/18) and the withdrawal of the SDF from the Hajin Pocket on October 27th (27/10/18) Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) carried 22 attacks against in Shangri-La. Resulting in at least 34 casualties. Both amongst the SDF and civilians.

I won't bore you with a comprehensive list of dates and locations you've never heard of.

However these attacks by HAQ have increased since the first round of sandstorms set back SDF operations in the Hajin Pocket on October 10th (10/10/18). They also appear to be coordinated with and almost indistinguishable from ISIL attacks.

For example on October 18th (18/10/18) sandstorms again blew up across Shangri-La.

Alongside using this to launch conventional S-VBIED attacks against the SDF in the Hajin Pocket ISIL also conduct a behind-the-lines attack against the Saheel and Omar Oil and Gas Fields. As HAQ conducted IED attacks against the SDF in Raqqa City and the village of Basira. Killing eight members of the SDF.

The following day, on October 19th (19/10/18) ISIL conducted sniper attacks against the SDF in the villages of Jadid Akidat and Jadid Baqqara. Killing a member of the SDF in each location.

Meanwhile HAQ gunmen attacked an SDF checkpoint without casualties in Abu Hardub. They also conducted an IED attack which killed one member of the SDF in Raqqa City. HAQ also conducted an IED attack against the offices of the Kurdish Red Crescent aid group in Hasakah City.

The SDF's withdrawal from the Hajin Pocket on October 27th (27/10/18) was brought about by a sustained ISIL attack on the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC) element of the coalition. This resulted in many deaths and casualties. Effectively wiping the DEZ-MC as a fighting force.

As a result Arab tribes which make up much of the DEZ-MC were desperate to launch a fresh attack on ISIL to seek vengeance. While the wider SDF wanted to re-group and draw up a more effective plan. This divergence of opinion caused a lot of tension within the SDF coalition.

This tension led to concerns that the Arab tribes would break away from the SDF. There was particular concern about the Shaitat Tribe. They have always been traditionally loyal to the Syrian government and it wouldn't take much for them to once again side with the Syrian government. Taking with them a huge chunk of the territory of Shangri-La.

So on November 2nd (2/11/18) HAQ assassinated Sheikh Bashir Faysal al-Huwaidi. The leader of the al-Afadilah Tribe which is closely allied with the SDF. As both a warning to the other Arab tribes and in an effort to increase tensions between the SDF and the Arab tribes.

Aside from the covert action of HAQ/MIT Erdogan has grown in confidence to the point where he feels he can both threaten and even conduct overt military action against the SDF and CJTFOIR.

On October 12th (12/10/18) Erdogan gave a speech in which he declared the regular Turkish military (TSK) would soon sweep across the Euphrates from Garvaghy Road to attack Shangri-La. Rooting out what he called the SDF's "terror nests." Drawing his confidence from the people who believe his Khashoggi claims Erdogan declared that the TSK would be joined in this operation by the Army of Islam.

On October 28th (28/10/18) Erdogan celebrated the previous day's (27/10/18) Istanbul summit.

The TSK shelled the Shangri-La village of Zur Maghar from Jarablus in Garvaghy Road. Zur Maghar sits close to the city of Kobane where the SDF mounted their epic resistance against ISIL in 2014/15. Around 30km (20 miles) east of the boundary between Garvaghy Road and Shangri-La.

On October 30th (30/10/18) the TSK shelled the Shangri-La villages around Tel Abyad/Gire Spi from within Turkey. Tel Abyad/Gire Spi sits along Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey around 220km (130 miles) east of the boundary with Garvaghy Road. Erdogan has long threatened to invade via Tel Abyad/Gire Spi in order to effectively split Shangri-La in half.

On November 1st (1/11/18) TSK snipers opened fire on civilians in Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. Shooting one 10 year old girl in the head, killing her.

These Turkish attacks forced the SDF to abandon any plans to launch a fresh operation against ISIL in the Hajin Pocket. Instead they have had to redeploy their forces to defend Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and its western boundary with Garvaghy Road. While increasing security measures across the area to counter the HAQ/MIT threat.

The US has responded to this Turkish aggression by appeasing Erdogan. On October 20th (20/10/18) it pledged that joint US/TSK patrols would begin on the boundary between Shangri-La in the; "coming days."

These joint patrols is something Turkey has demanded every since then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Turkey on February 15th 2018 (15/2/18). The meeting intended to bring an end to Erdogan's Operation: Olive Branch in Afrin Canton was famously overshadowed by the February 14th (14/2/18) mass shooting at a school in Parkland, Florida.

The US/TSK joint patrols actually began on November 8th (8/11/18). Just as America was reeling from the mass shooting at the Borderline Bar in Thousand Oaks, California. Which occurred at around lunchtime in the Middle-East.

The US has also made some attempt to deter Erdogan's aggression. US Special Operation Forces (SOF) and conventional forces like Marines have been conducting joint patrols mixed in the SDF. Both along Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and its western boundary with Garvaghy Road.

The calculation being that Erdogan would not risk killing American troops by continuing the TSK attacks on the SDF.

That calculation is skewed by the fact that HAQ/MIT have not only attacked but killed both US and British troops. Specifically in Manbij on March 30th (30/3/18). There was no consequence for either Turkey nor Erdogan.

As it always seems to do the problem has arrived in the form of French President Emmanuel Macron.

I will explain further after dinner.

18:10 on 12/11/18 (UK date).

Edited at around 20:00 on 12/11/18 (UK date) to add;

Sunday November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) saw the 100th anniversary of the end of the First World War.

This was marked by events across Europe and World. The main event though saw the leaders of 70 nations gather in France.

French President Emmanuel Macron decided not to make this about all those who had been killed in the war. Nor did Macron choose to make it about the immense global, social change triggered by that horrific slaughter.

Instead French President Emmanuel Macron decided to make it all about Emmanuel Macron.

On the Saturday (10/11/18) French police charged three far-right activists for allegedly plotting to assassinate Macron.

As if the threat of one man  travelling to meet two other men whilst in possession of a single pocket knife somehow made Macron some sort of heroic war veteran risking his life on a daily basis. Rather than a soft-handed, sweaty palmed civilian in an empty suit.

On the day of the ceremony a member of the FEMEN group managed to evade French security and run towards the motorcade of US President Trump.

Far from being a feminist group FEMEN is run by men. Ukrainian men who are closely linked to the Nazis who currently run Ukraine. Who are in turn linked to Erdogan through Crimea and Ukraine's ethnically Turkish population.

Macron then gave a speech in which the main theme was that Nationalism is the opposite of Patriotism. A betrayal of Patriotism. A speech clearly intended as an attack on US President Trump who recently described himself as an economic nationalist.

French President Macron hoped that these 69 other world leaders would stay in France to attend a Paris Peace Forum he'd arranged for today (12/11/18). The stated goal of the forum was to prevent future conflict through multilateralism.

US President Trump simply refused the invitation to the Paris Peace Forum. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted the invite but suddenly found a reason to leave. With the exception of Costa Rica's President Carlos Alvarado Quesada I can't think of single World leader who actually attended.

The arrogance French President Macron displayed throughout the weekend was astounding. As was his apparent complete lack of knowledge of Europe's recent history.

Following the mass slaughter of the First World War there was a global movement to embrace multilateralism to avoid future conflict. One of the first acts of this new multilateral world was a Paris Peace Forum.

At that Paris Peace Forum the US President Woodrow Wilson called on European nations not to economically punish the former German Empire and the former Ottoman Empire too harshly for the war. That call was largely rejected. However it did influence the plan for the break up of the Ottoman Empire.

The original plan would have seen the Ottoman Empire broken up into the modern day nations of Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Along with the nation of Kurdistan.

However as not to totally humiliate the founder of modern Turkey the European powers gave Mustafa Kemal Ataturk a veto over the creation of the nation of Kurdistan. The fact Britain had just discovered that oil was very useful and there was a lot of it in the region probably didn't help much either.

From that first Paris Peace Forum was born the League of Nations. A multilateral body which served as a sort of forerunner of the current United Nations.

In 1938 Nazi Germany unilaterally annexed Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland. A gross violation of both international law and the principle of multilateralism.

Unfortunately at the time the World was still emerging from the Great Depression. So European leaders were all too concerned with protecting their own economies and financial institutions to stand up to Hitler's aggression. Eventually Nazi Germany went on to annex almost all of Europe and much of North Africa.

This led to the collapse of the League of Nations and Second World War. The slaughter of 10 million combatants during the First World War was soon dwarfed by the slaughter of 11 million civilians during the Holocaust.

French President Macron's performance this weekend calls to my mind that famous quote of Britain's leader during World War Two, Winston Churchill;

"Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it." 

A quote that was given much prominence during British events to mark the end of the First World War.

While World leaders including Erdogan were gathered in France a much smaller summit was taking place in Shangri-La. Between the SDF, France and the US. The outcome of that summit was twofold.

Firstly, at France's insistence, the joint US/SDF patrols along Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and its western boundary with Garvaghy Road would end. Removing whatever deterrent they provided against further Turkish attacks.

At the same time the SDF are being forced to resume their operation against ISIL in the Hajin Pocket. 

I know for certain that the weather is not going to improve as November gives way to December and December gives way to January. I have certainly not seen any indication of CJTFOIR equipping and training the SDF with the large number of anti-tank missiles they will need to fight S-VBIED's while the weather is bad.

I tempted to think that French President Macron is forcing the SDF into this in the hope that once victory against ISIL is declared public interest in the conflict will wane. Macron will then enjoy more freedom to protect Erdogan as Erdogan protects ISIL and Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland.

Given the startling lack of knowledge of Europe and global political history he's displayed I not sure its even that complicated.

French President Macron seems to be gripped with that terrible affliction which gets a hold of many new heads of government. Particularly the sweaty little boys of the political right. Such as investment banker Macron. 

Upon taking up office immature leaders are so in awe of having an army they immediately look for an excuse to play with that new toy. By sending an army into battle. As if the heroism of those fighting would somehow rub off on the politician.

It is why Britain has the Cenotaph and Remembrance Sunday.

As I've mentioned the SDF have an International Brigade. One of the divisions of that International Brigade is the Bob Crow division. Named after notorious British trade union leader Bob Crow.

In response to Macron's demands I can only recommend the entire SDF does what Bob Crow is famous for.

If CJTFOIR is not prepared to support the SDF then the SDF should not be laying down their lives to defeat ISIL on CJTFOIR's behalf.

21:10 on 12/11/18 (UK date).