Operation Featherweight: Month 52, Week 3, Day 3.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Central Syria:

This is really all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.

This though still left several pockets outside of Syrian control;

The first one of these was an area around the town of al-Tanf. This remained under the partial control of ISIL.

This ISIL pocket has been created by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). They operate a base close to al-Tanf designated; "Bobby Sands" which they use to train the Islamist Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT).

Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.

The second, much larger, pocket was centred around East Ghouta. This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.

The East Ghouta area though extends into the East Qalamoun Mountains. Ruhaybah, the main town in the East Qalamoun Mountains, sits around 35km (20 miles) north-east of Douma, the main town in the East Ghouta suburb.

East Ghouta itself and the East Qalamoun Mountains were long under the control of the Army of Conquest. The dominant members of the coalition in the area being Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam.

However their influence reduced the further you got into the East Qalamoun Mountains. An area largely controlled by small fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The third pocket was the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees which sits around 5km (3 miles) south-west of the East Ghouta suburb. The Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees was long under the control of ISIL. 

There was also an area to the west of the Central Syria area outside of Syrian control. The Yarmouk River Basin.

This area is the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda Province. These run along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.

The Army of Conquest had a presence in the area. Again with Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam being the locally dominant factions within the coalition.

The ISIL affiliate the Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid also operated in the Yarmouk River Basin.

The main group in the area though was the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest. Backed by particularly Britain and Jordan they are a difficult group to place ideologically. So fragments are secular like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Others are deeply Islamist and owe more to the Army of Conquest.

In late February 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the East Ghouta suburb itself. This operation ended in success on April 12th (12/4/18). The Army of Islam faction of the Army of Conquest surrendered the town of Douma placing the entire East Ghouta suburb under Syrian control.

While conducting operations within the East Ghouta suburb the Syrians were also attempting to regain control over the East Qalamoun Mountains.

On April 25th (25/4/18) Syrian forces formally entered and raised the Syrian national flag over the towns of Ruhaybah and Jayroud. This marked the complete and total liberation of the East Qalamoun Mountains area.

The Battle of East Ghouta saw all the Islamist groups unite to attack Syrian forces across the country. In an effort to support the Army of Islam in the battle by dividing the Syrian forces.

This Islamist alliance included ISIL who began attacking the Syrians from the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees.

On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrian lines around the Yarmouk Camp collapsed allowing ISIL to take control of the adjoining al-Qadam district to the west and the adjoining Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. Both of which are districts of Damascus itself.

On April 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians began an operation to recover the al-Qadam and Hajar al-Aswad districts and to expel ISIL from the Yarmouk Camp completely.

On April 30th (30/4/18) the Army of Conquest within the Yarmouk Camp formally surrendered to the Syrians.

On May 21st (21/5/18) ISIL also surrendered to the Syrians. This saw them surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.

On May 22nd (22/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies took full control of the Yarmouk Camp.

This marked the complete closure of the East Ghouta area pocket within the Central Syria area.

On June 19th (19/6/18) the Syrians resumed their operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.

The Syrian approach to this operation was the same as it had been in the Battle of East Ghouta and the operation to liberate the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees;

In order to minimise any loss of life prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout. Under the terms of what has become the standard surrender offered by the Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.

That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."

Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.

Initially none of the groups accepted the surrender offer.

So on June 21st (21/6/18)  the Syrians moved to liberate the town of Hirak.

This was considered the main gateway to the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area. Sitting as it does on high ground around 110km (65 miles) south of Damascus. Around 30km (20 miles) west of As-Suweida City and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Daraa City.

On June 28th (28/6/18) the Syrians liberated the town of Hirak. This prompted many of the armed groups to take the Syrians up on their offer of surrender.

On June 30th (30/6/18) the Southern Front coalition in Ibtaa, Um Walad and Eastern Karak, Dael, Western Ghariya, Eastern Ghariya, Talul Khlayf and Tal Sheikh Hussein surrendered and opted to join the Amnesty Battalions.

On July 6th (6/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender the towns of Kahil, al-Sahwa, al-Jiza and al-Misaifra.

On July 15th (15/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender Daraa City.

On July 31st (31/7/18) ISIL's Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid agreed to surrender all their positions and be transferred to the small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) total Syrian victory declared in the Yarmouk River Basin. The UNDOF has since returned to the Golan Heights.

As I've mentioned before much of August and September 2018 were taken up with talk of a looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland area. Or more accurately vocal and hostile opposition to such an operation by the NATO nations and sadly official bodies of the UN.

This was driven in no small part by rumours circulated the Army of Conquest and the Syrians themselves that Syria would be launching an operation on September 10th (10/9/18).

Syria did indeed launch an operation on September 10th (10/9/18). However it was not launched against the Army of Conquest in the Sudetenland. Instead it was launched against the remaining ISIL presence in the Central Syria area.

The majority of the Central Syria area is made up of the Syrian Desert or Badiya al-Sham. This is the World's ninth largest desert and strictly speaking covers an area of 500,000kmsq (200,000 milesq) encompassing almost all of Syria along with parts of Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

The area in the South-East of Syria along the borders with Jordan and Iraq is really where the desert is at its most extreme. Within the roughly 60,000kmsq (36,000 milesq) area between Damascus, Palmyra, Al-Boukamal/Abu Kamal and Syria's south-eastern border there is almost nothing except for sand dunes and gravel.

Within this area ISIL don't control any population centres, roads or any other strategic locations. They don't even really operate bases. What they do though is operate a number of small, mobile camps.

This actually makes them extremely difficult to locate. When they are located those ISIL camps are identified only by their GPS coordinates. For the small window of time before they are either destroyed or move.

The exception is the Ruqban Camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's). Control of this is shared between ISIL and Maghawir al-Thawra. The Islamist group trained and supported by the US.

The Ruqban Camp sits firmly within the deconfliction zone around America's Bobby Sands base. So if the Syrians were to move to expel ISIL from the camp it would put them in direct conflict with the US.

In fact on September 7th (7/9/18) the US deployed a company sized Quick Reaction Force (QRF) to conduct a live fire exercise at the Bobby Sands base. Specifically to deter Syria from liberating the Ruqban IDP camp from ISIL. A highly unusual use for a QRF of that size.

Due to the nature of the landscape and the enemy this stretch of the Syrian Desert is an area that needs almost constant sweeping. As a result there have been sporadic hit & run type clashes between the Syrians and ISIL ever since the summer of 2017.

On September 10th (10/9/18) though the Syrians launched a big sweeping operation. This was conducted on two axis. One sweeping west across Deir-ez-Zour Province and one sweeping east across Homs Province.

By September 11th (11/9/18) the Syrians had swept through around 30km (18 miles) clearing the villages of Nariyah and Rashwani. These sit close to Tar as Sarayim hill. Around 70km (40 miles) south-west of as-Suknah.

By September 13th (13/9/18) the Syrians had swept through another roughly 40km (25 miles) to clear the village of Bir al-Hajjah. In the process the Syrians cleared the surrounding Salhub valley. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of as-Suknah.

On September 19th (19/9/18) the two Syrian axis united at Bir al-Hijjah. They also eliminated an ISIL cell which held be holed up on Abtar Mountain just to the south of Palmyra.

Since then I've not seen any further reports of either Syrian or ISIL operations in the area. However I have fallen somewhat behind with my research.

The nature of the terrain and the operation means that this area will need near constant re-sweeping. To identify and eliminate any ISIL camps which may have been established since the last sweep. It is the type of operation where surveillance drones and satellites are extremely useful.

Alongside military operations the Syrians have also been engaging in negotiations over the fate of civilians and armed groups holed up in the Ruqban Camp. This included meeting with local tribal leaders on September 29th (29/9/18) to negotiate the acceptance of the standard Amnesty agreement which would allow occupants of the camp to return home.

These negotiations have been accompanied by various rumours of groups offering their surrender and leaving the area including the Bobby Sands base and Ruqban camp.

On September 17th (17/9/18) it was reported that the Brigade Martyrs of Qaryatayn/Liwa Shuhada al-Qaryatayn would leave for the Garvaghy Road area. Where presumably they will be absorbed into the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

Alongside Maghawir al-Thawra Liwa Shuhada al-Qaryatayn are one of the Islamist groups trained by the US at the Bobby Sands base. It has since been confirmed that they have indeed transferred to Garvaghy Road. Including family members they total around 3,000.

On September 21st (21/9/18) it was rumoured that 700 fighters from Maghawir al-Thawra along with 2,500 family members would also quit the Bobby Sands base for Garvaghy Road. Maghawir al-Thawra have strenuously denied this rumour.

Maghawir al-Thawra did though not intervene to stop Liwa Shuhada al-Qaryatayn from leaving. They have also indicated that they would not stop other groups leaving under the terms of an Amnesty agreement.

On September 24th (24/9/18) an agreement was reached 400 ISIL fighters plus an unspecified number of family members to leave the Ruqban camp for the Sudetenland. Where they have joined their fellow fighters under the protection of the Army of Conquest.

Within the Sudetenland the Army of Conquest and the Turkish Intelligence Agency (MIT) have been mounting weekly, supposedly "popular" protests.

These protests have increasingly demanded that the UN massively increases its aid supplies to the armed groups within the Ruqban camp. Specifically to prevent those armed groups surrendering to the Syrians.

The fact that the Army of Conquest and the MIT have felt able to make such demands of the UN is likely a factor in why UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura stepped down on October 17th (17/10/18).

It is also likely a factor in why the UN Chief of Humanitarian Access to Syria, Jan Egeland stepped down the following day. October 18th (18/10/18).

17:20 on 22/10/18 (UK date).