Operation Featherweight: Month 52, Week 1, Day 4.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La:

This is  under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

Shangri-La is located in the north-east of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

The exception is a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. Known as the; "Hajin Pocket" this area remains under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."

This operation began with two concurrent phases.

The first phase focused on the roughly 35km (20 mile) area on the north bank of the Euphrates still under ISIL control. This stretches from the town of Hajin in the north down to Baghuz Tahtani in the south, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.

This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th (4/5/18). Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.

The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.

Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.

On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up. As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.

Over the night of September 10th (10/9/18) into September 11th (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. This is focused on liberating those 10 remaining towns on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.

These towns are all relatively small and sparsely populated.

The largest, Hajin, is only 12kmsq (7 milesq) in area containing just five main roads. It is roughly twice the size of the just the Old City district of ISIL's former de facto capital Raqqa City.

Therefore the challenge is not really the urban areas themselves but the layers of defences ISIL have built up around them.

These are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.

This third phase of Operation Round Up is being conducted on three axis;

The north-western axis is focused on Hajin.

The south-western axis is focused on Baghuz Fawqani.

The third axis is a northern one focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.
 
Hajin is believed to be ISIL's current de facto capital. As a result the fighting on the north-western Hajin axis has been the heaviest and slowest moving.

For example on October 4th (4/10/18) the SDF advanced just 300 metres/yards on the Hajin axis. However in the course of those 300 metres/yards they liberated 6 ISIL fighting positions.

On October 5th (5/10/18) the SDF didn't advance any notable distance at all. They did though liberate a further 6 ISIL fighting positions.

Over the course of the 29 days of operations on the north-western the SDF have advanced a little over 12km (7 miles) towards Hajin.

Within that distance the SDF have liberated nearly 70 ISIL fighting positions including two complex trench networks. One around 3km (1.8 miles) in length.

Amid fierce fighting the SDF now seem to be pushing up against ISIL's main layer of defences around Hajin.

The northern Sousse axis has seen similarly slow progress. For the first five days of operations - September 11th (11/9/18) to September 15th (15/9/18) it seemed to be serving as a diversion for the other two axis.

However on September 16th (16/9/18) the SDF managed to advance 2km (1.2 miles) on the Sousse axis. Liberating 11 ISIL fighting positions. On September 23rd (23/9/18) the SDF advanced 1km (0.6 milesq) on the axis. Liberating 4 ISIL fighting positions in the process.

The SDF's main progress has been made on the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis.

On September 14th (14/9/18) the SDF reached ISIL's main defensive ring around Baghuz Fawqani. By September 16th (16/9/18) the SDF had broken through that main defensive layer.

On September 20th (20/9/18) the SDF completely liberated Baghuz Fawqani.

Directly to the north of Baghuz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.

So on September 24th (24/9/18) both the SDF's south-western Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis both turned their attention to al-Shalja. The Sousse axis advanced to the west of the town while the Baghuz Fawqani axis advanced to the east of al-Shalja.

Almost without a fight al-Shalja was liberated from ISIL on September 25th (25/9/18).

This saw the SDF's south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis merge and effectively become one single axis.

Having liberated al-Shalja the SDF spent the next few days consolidating their control over the town. Establishing their own fighting positions and clearing leftover IED's and landmines.

Directly to the west of al-Shalja you have the town of as-Safafinah. To the west of as-Safafinah you have the town of al-Marashidah.

On September 28th (28/9/18) the SDF's now combined south-western axis began to advance out of al-Shalja. In the direction of Safafinah and Marashidah. On that day they advanced around 1km (0.6 miles) liberating 6 ISIL fighting positions.

On September 29th (29/9/18) the SDF advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating 10 ISIL fighting positions. On October 2nd (2/10/18) the SDF entered Safafinah itself. By advancing around 1km (0.6 miles) and liberating 8 ISIL fighting positions.

Having entered Safafinah the SDF have been forced to absorb heavy ISIL counter attacks rather than make progress of their own. On Sunday (7/10/18) though the SDF were able to advance around 1.5km (0.9 miles) within the town. Liberating 15 ISIL fighting positions and defusing 5 landmines in the process.

Also on Sunday (7/10/18) the SDF entered Marashidah.

The SDF's focus on Shalja, Safafinah and Marashidah does seem to have temporarily relieved some of the pressure on ISIL around Sousse. On September 29th (29/9/18) ISIL were able to recapture Mozan. This is a small area of canals directly to the south-east of Sousse.

As ISIL were recapturing Mozan the SDF were putting them under sustained pressure in three other towns. Pressure that in Shalja ISIL were certainly not able to withstand. Therefore the SDF's decision to let ISIL recapture Mozan seems to have been a tactical one. The SDF were quickly able to re-liberate Mozan on October 5th (5/10/18).

The SDF and CJTFOIR are not the only ones who have been conducting military action against ISIL in this Hajin pocket.

On September 30th (30/9/18) Iran launched six Qaim ballistic missiles from its Kermanshah Province. Two failed to launch but four struck Hajin after flying over Iraq.

This Iranian strike was retaliation against ISIL for a terror attack against an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) parade on September 22nd (22/9/18) which killed 20. That attack has since been credibly claimed by ISIL. Although that hardly contradicts Iran's initial claim that it had been carried out by ISIL's traditional sponsors.

CJTFOIR in particular were vocally opposed to this strike claiming that it endangered their forces in the area. In reality though most of the anger stemmed from the fact the strike contradicts, particularly the US' oft-repeated claim that Syria, Iran and Russia are not fighting ISIL.

It must also be said that if you're looking for a target to carry out a symbolic strike against ISIL you're fast running out of places to choose from.

Away from the battle lines of the Hajin pocket the SDF still face some reduced ISIL attacks behind the lines across Shangri-La. For example on ISIL blew up an oil well head near Shadaddi on September 25th (25/9/18). That though was quickly dealt with by SDF arrests in Tayib al-Fal and Suwayyan.

Probably the greater threat to security across Shangri-La is posed by The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ). A former fragment of the FSA who were transferred to Shangri-La they now operate as a front for the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT).

On September 21st (21/9/10) HAQ used a roadside bomb to ambush an SDF vehicle patrol in Raqqa City. Killing two SDF fighters. HAQ are also believed to be responsible for killing an SDF fighter who was found dead in Raqqa City on the same day.

On September 22nd (22/9/18) HAQ again used a roadside bomb to ambush an SDF vehicle patrol. This time in the Madan district of Gharanji. On September 25th (25/9/19) a HAQ IED killed two SDF fighters in Shadaddi.

HAQ conducted two bombings on September 29th (29/9/18). One in Markadah and one in Mafra district. These bombings were conducted while the political arm of the SDF - the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) - was meeting with the Jabbour Tribe to discuss service provision and security. The bombings killed two civilians.

On October 4th (4/10/18) a HAQ IED in Manbij killed two members of the SDF and wounded two others. Manbij is the hotly contested town that sits on the boundary between Shangri-La on the east and Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road to the west.

HAQ are also believed to be behind protests against the SDF and SDC. Such as those seen in Beit Uqaydat, Beit Bayrah, Jinyah, Hissam and Suwayyan on September 27th (27/9/18) against poor service provision and heavy handed policing by the SDF.

The SDF's response to the security challenges of both HAQ and ISIL in Shangri-La has been twofold.

They have conducted security operations. Such as on September 30th (30/9/18) when the SDF's Anti-Terrorism Unit (YAT) disrupted an ISIL cell in the Basil neighbourhood of Raqqa City. Killing two ISIL members and capturing five others alongside seizing guns, grenades and explosive.

Perhaps more importantly the SDF/SDC have been reaching out to local residents and tribal leaders. Such as the September 29th (29/9/18) meeting with the Jabbour Tribe.

In these meetings the SDF/SDC are trying to listen to their concerns and offer solutions. Such as repairing Taqba's water and irrigation system or reopening the Kobash cotton market to local farmers.

The US' response to HAQ's attacks has been more peculiar though. It has been to reward them.

On October 2nd (2/10/18) US troops started joint training with Turkish troops. This is the latest phase of a roadmap which has seen US and Turkish troops conduct joint but separate patrols around Manbij and will eventually seem joint patrols.

Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes that those joint patrols will see Turkey occupy Manbij and eventually all of Shangri-La.

18:20 on 9/10/18 (UK date).