It's Time to Say Goodbye. She'll be Gone in a Minute.

September 25th (25/9/18) saw the start of the week-long High Level Segment of the annual opening on the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

This affords High Level representatives - Heads of Government/State (HOGS) etc - of all members of the UN to address an audience made up of their peers from other member states and permanent representatives to the UN of those member states.

It is something of a tradition that at least one of these addresses will be utterly bizarre and unbelievable. So bizarre and unbelievable that the people watching can't help but laugh.

Previous standouts from this so-called; "Comedy Slot" include;

Fidel Castro of Cuba in 1960. His speech went on for four hours and twenty nine minutes. Significantly longer that the 10 minutes that had been allotted.

Hugo Chavez of Venezuela in 2006. Taking to the podium shortly after US President George W. Bush he complained that you could still smell the Sulphur in the room. Using Christian imagery to declare that George W. Bush was Satan and he had just emerged from Hell.

Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel in 2012. His speech focused on Iran's nuclear program. To highlight Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons brought with him a diagram of a bomb. This diagram of a bomb was exactly the sort of; "Acme Corp" bomb used in children's cartoons such as Bugs Bunny.

Since then Netanyahu seems to have decided to steer into the skid by trying to make the UNGA comedy slot his own.

In war and less violent forms of political activism there is something known as; "Agitation Propaganda" or; "Agit-Prop." This is type of propaganda used mobilise supporters against an adversary.

Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have taken this term literally. Frequently bringing actual stage-props to speeches where he tries to agitate against an enemy - normally Iran.

Immediately following the Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics a drone was shot down over Israel having crossed in from Syria.

Shortly after at the 2018 Munich Security Conference Netanyahu gave a speech condemning the Iranian aggression. He'd brought with him a part of the drone and proceeded to wave that dirty great lump of metal over his head as he spoke.

At the UNGA this year Britain was represented by its Head of Government - Prime Minister Theresa May.

The majority of Prime Minister May's speech was an attempt to agitate against Russia. Repeatedly accusing them of using Chemical Weapons to poison the Skripals et al back in March 2018.

Britain however spent the week working to undermine Prime Minister May's speech by exposing how bizarre and unbelievable it was. Presumably so she took home the Comedy Slot award.

On September 26th (26/9/18) the British Daily Telegraph newspaper promoted claims that the identity of one of the Russians - Ruslan Boshirov - is an alias. It was further alleged that Boshirov was in fact Anatoliy Chepiga - a former member of Russian special forces and a serving Colonel in the GRU, Russia's foreign intelligence agency.

The Daily Telegraph is widely recognised as the brain of the British Establishment. If you've ever read the newspaper you would know what a strange and frightening place that can be. The claims it was promoting were made by the website Bellingcat.

Bellingcat is simply the blog of a 39 year old British man by the name of Eliot Higgins. 

Proclaiming his blog to be; "The Home of Online Investigations" Higgins is one of those "Walter Mitty/Billy Liar" types you often find on the fringes of the intelligence community. And sadly sometimes within the British intelligence services.

In 2012 Higgins was fired from a low level position in the local civil service. 

He started blogging under the name; "Brown Moses" on the conflict in Syria. With a specific, personal mission to uncover evidence of Russian crimes. In 2014 under the name Bellingcat he switched his focus to blogging on the burgeoning conflict in Ukraine. Again with the specific, personal mission of uncovering evidence of Russian crimes.

I suppose you could liken me and this blog to Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat. I though think there are some key differences;

It really shouldn't surprise you that in order to keep track of the conflict in Syria and Iraq I take extensive notes. My budget is now so distressed that I genuinely worry about being able to afford the GB£3 to buy a new notebook or the GB£5 needed to by an ink refill. If those two expenses were to occur in the same month I would probably have to work it out with a pencil.

With the help of mystery benefactors Eliot Higgins has registered Bellingcat as a Private Limited Company in the UK and is paying himself a handsome salary. The type of thing that makes him a prime target for the Unexplained Wealth Orders (UWO's) Prime Minister May's government have been pushing aggressively in the wake of the Skripal poisoning.

Judging by the amount of spam I receive from the British government suggesting I should start my own business I suspect they would like me to follow Bellingcat's example. However due to things like UWO's that would require a significant change in the longstanding hostility Britain has shown to me.

Recently I've been talking about the Kavanaugh hearings in the US as issues I can cover with very little effort. 

That's because in the past I have trained as a mental health professional and done voluntarily work in projects rehabilitating people with serious mental health problems. However just before I could receive my formal qualification the certification body suddenly and mysteriously collapsed.

With that route closed I trained in book keeping and accountancy. However again just before I could receive my formal qualification the certification body suddenly and mysteriously collapsed. The fact my younger brother is considered the golden boy of the family because he's started working for Price Waterhouse Coopers does wear thin at times.

That is I think the second significant difference between Higgins and myself. I've earned by credibility over a period of some 17 years. 

The rather strange claims I sometimes make about my grandfather being a bodyguard at the signing of the Japanese surrender in World War Two or my father just happening to be in Beijing, China on the day the Vietnam War ended have been checked. Even the people who don't like me have been forced to accept that they are true.

The third significant difference is that I have always focused on the Middle-East and Africa regions. I've been involved in the Syria conflict since the start in 2011 and have remained with the conflict in Syria and Iraq every day since 2014.

Higgins started in Syria in 2012 and then switched his focus to Ukraine in 2014. That suggests to me that he is not interested in the truth of what is happening in those conflicts. Instead he is motivated by a dislike or even hatred of Russia. An idea that is reinforced by the fact he is now focused on the Skripal case.

Bellingcat's work on Ukraine has been a longrunning source of controversy which was recently reignited.

In November 2014 Bellingcat claimed to have uncovered "evidence" that Russian backed rebels were responsible for the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

This claim was based almost exclusively on photo-analysis. Having not switched my focus I can't remember all of the specific flaws with Bellingcat's claims but they were significantly lacking in credibility.

For example Bellingcat claimed that Russia had doctored satellite data to remove images of the BUK missile being fired. As evidence he cited the fact the images used in Russia's presentation were in the Photoshop format.

Actual experts in forensic analysis quickly pointed out that in order to use images in a presentation you would have to convert them into the Photoshop format. The general consensus was that Bellingcat's claim was meaningless.

Bellingcat also claimed to show the BUK launcher travelling in convoy with three other vehicles.

Anyone looking at the pictures Bellingcat presented could clearly see that the BUK launcher is travelling in one direction on one side of the road. Far from travelling in convoy with it the three other vehicles are travelling in the opposite direction on the other side of the road.

In October 2015 the Dutch Safety Board released its investigation into the MH17 case. Despite ruling out an elaborate UFO conspiracy it did not include Bellingcat's claims considering them to be too incredible to comment on. As such it did not apportion blame to either Russia or Russian backed Ukrainian rebels.

The Dutch position changed dramatically in May 2018. They allowed the Joint Investigation Mechanism (JIM) to apportion blame to Russian backed Ukrainian rebels and by extension Russia. Something the US has long pressed the Netherlands to do.

To draw this conclusion the JIM relied almost exclusively on Bellingcat's claims. Which had been previously dismissed as non-credible.

At around 19:55 on 4/10/18 (UK date) I will have to tidy this up.

21:20 on 4/10/18 (UK date) and look at the reasons behind the Netherlands' sudden change or heart tomorrow.

Edited at around 13:35 on 5/10/18 (UK date) to add;

The Netherlands change on heart was particularly surprising.

In the months leading up to May they'd not been supportive of Russia as such. They had though become more vocally opposed to the bizarre anti-Russian conspiracy theories which seem to have become a normal part of political discourse.

Just before the 2018 Winter Olympics the Dutch Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra was forced to resign. He'd claimed that he'd attended a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which Putin had announced plans to create a new Russian Empire in eastern Europe.

Zijlstra's resignation came after it emerged that he'd never attended the meeting. In fact the meeting had never taken place and Putin had certainly never made those claims.

At the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest the Netherlands were represented by Waylon with the song; "Outlaw In 'Em." This invoked the orange and blue St Andrews Cross flag adopted used by ethnically Russian rebels in Ukraine. 

It showed support for them by reminding everyone that rather than being a Russian conspiracy the conflict in Ukraine is the result of NATO nations - particularly the US under Obama - illegally backing a group of slightly ethnically different Ukrainians who want to exterminate all the ethnically Russian Ukrainians. 

On May 18th (18/5/18) the new Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok made their first visit to the US. This was marked by a shooting at a school in Santa Fe, Texas. That invoked memories of the Parkland shooting which occurred during the 2018 Winter Olympics.

The Parkland shooting invoked memories of the 1999 Columbine shooting. Like the Santa Fe shooting that was carried out using shotguns. At the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest Hungary's entry compared the moral panic America experienced in the wake of the Columbine shooting with the moral panic Russia experiences of homosexuality.

With all that ringing in their ears the Netherlands decided on May 24th (24/5/18) that suddenly it would allow the MH17 JIM to treat Bellingcat's three year old claims as credible.

In terms of Bellingcat's claims over the Skripal poisoning which the Daily Telegraph promoted they seem to have done an excellent job in tracking the life and career of Anatoliy Chepiga. 

However it is very clear to anyone looking at the photographs Bellingcat provided that Anatoliy Chepiga is not Ruslan Boshirov. One of the men Britain accuses of carrying out the Skripal poisoning.

Back in 2015 the type of photo-analysis used by Bellingcat produced what, I think, is a far more believable conspiracy theory. That Russian President Vladimir Putin is either a time traveller or at least 120 years old.

Going over historical photographs researchers discovered one of a Russian soldier from 1920. He probably more closely resembles Putin than Chepiga resembles Boshirov.

The researchers also discovered a photograph of a Russian airman from 1941. Again he probably more closely resembles Putin than Chepiga resembles Boshirov.

Thus using Bellingcat's reasoning all three men are Vladimir Putin. Conclusively proving that Putin is either a time traveller or at least 120 years old.

In reporting the "Putin Time Traveller" story many newspapers and websites illustrated it with the three photographs side-by-side in a little box. In promoting Bellingcat's claims the Daily Telegraph used the same format of the three photographs side-by-side in a little box.

This use of facial recognition in photographs and video images to identify suspects is actually quite a controversial issue in the UK. British police are in the process of rolling out facial recognition CCTV nationally. The problem is that the technology is, and I quote; "Staggeringly Inaccurate."

The technology was tested in South Wales where it identified 2,685 known and wanted suspects. This resulted in 234 arrests. The other 2,451 faces the system recognised were completely different people.

The technology was also tested in London. There it identified 102 known and wanted suspects. This resulted in absolutely no arrests. Every single person the system identified was wrong.

Privacy campaigners are opposed to the police's use of this technology. They are talking about challenging it in the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). Something they will be unable to do if Britain quits the ECHR as part of Brexit but promises to still obey the rules on a voluntary basis under a; "Common Rule Book."

The point about Bellingcat's claims about the Skripal suspects is that the research was not carried out by Eliot Higgins. It was carried out by the British police as part of their Skripal investigation.

The information was given to Bellingcat by the British intelligence service. In order to expose, on a global stage, just how completely lacking in credibility the British police investigation into the Skripal poisoning actually is.

The fact Bellingcat published it without realising that suggests we won't be hearing from Eliot Higgins in 10-15 years.

While the World was fixated on the Kavanaugh hearings Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his UNGA address on Thursday (27/9/18). 

Never one to disappoint he'd brought his props with him. This time it was photographs of Iranian weapon plants of the quality you would expect from Bellingcat. They were even annotated in the same style that Bellingcat uses.

Meanwhile in the British news Bellingcat's claims had given way to the Coroner's Inquest into the death of Natasha Ednan-Laperouse. A 15 year old British girl who died after suffering an allergic reaction to a Pret A Manger sandwich while aboard an Easyjet flight from Britain to France.

Initially I was quite dismissive of this case. Which no doubt would be distressing to the parents.

The thing is that this is what UK Coroner Courts do day-in-day-out. It is extremely rare for their work to make the national news. Let alone lead it for several days. Suggesting the story was being pushed by someone behind-the-scenes for some reason.

There's quite a lot of inference you can draw from the Pret A Manger element of the story.

For example the company is part of a group of coffee shop/fast food outlet which includes the likes of McDonald's and Starbucks. These companies are often described as tax evasion enterprises that occasionally serve food.

Pret A Manger's business model relies heavily on employing young, temporary migrants from the EU. Post Brexit it and other companies in its sector have been pushing for the introduction of a so-called; "Barista Visa" to keep this flow of low paid labour flowing.

Pret A Manger and others in the sector also rely heavily on non-recyclable plastic products such as disposable coffee cups. There has been talk of introducing a so-called; "Latte Levy" tax on these products. As Britain tries to position itself as a World leader in fighting plastic pollution.

There's also quite a lot you can infer from the Easyjet element of the story. Such as whether UK airlines will be able to operate in the EU post-Brexit. Or whether British people will be able to just pop over to Nice after Brexit without a visa.

Ironically the same Britons who cherish that type of weekend citybreak are the same people who can't believe that people from Europe would fly to Britain for a single weekend.

The element of the story which most relates to the Skripal case though is the focus on; "Epipens."

Epipen is a brandname for an autoinjection kit containing Epinephrine (adrenaline). Other Epinephrine autoinjection kits are available on the market.

Autoinjection kits are also used for many things other than Epinephrine. Most notably Atropine autoinjection kits featured in the Nerve Agent Antidote Kit designated by NATO forces as; "Mark 1 NAAK.

The treatment protocol for the Mark 1 NAAK is that is must be administered within 2 minutes of a person displaying symptoms of nerve agent poisoning. Or within 15 minutes of exposure to nerve agents even if no symptoms are shown.

The UK claims that Petrov and Boshirov applied Novichok nerve agent to the Skripal's door handle between 12:00 and 13:00 on March 4th (4/3/18). The Skripals exact movements are not known. However it seems they were in the house at the time meaning they were exposed to the nerve agent no later than 13:25.

The Skripals then travelled into town. Had lunch and went for drinks before being taken ill at 16:15. Some three hours after supposedly being exposed to this fresh dose of nerve agent.

Transdermal or through the skin is the slowest absorption route for nerve agents. Rather than inhaled through the lungs or absorbed through the fluid in the eyes. The exact dose is also a factor.

However you have to agree that there is a significant difference between 15 minutes and 3 hours. So Britain's claim that the Skripals were poisoned no later than 13:25 is significantly lacking in credibility.

The delay in the nerve agent taken effect could be explained by it being applied to the door handle on Saturday (3/3/18) evening and then being degraded by the weather overnight. This is what British police initially claimed had happened.

However the police investigation went onto discover that Petrov and Boshirov left the Salisbury at 16:05 on March 3rd (3/3/18). Giving them an alibi. 

So the police simply changed the time the crime took place so it would fit with their suspects movements. Even though their new theory is scientifically impossible.

This past week has seen the Conservative Party Conference. With lots of media excitement about the speech party leader - Prime Minister May - would give.

The week began with the parents of Natasha Ednan-Laperouse giving an interview to the BBC.

The headline quote of the interview was the father who was with the girl telephoning the mother who was not and saying;

"{You have} to say goodbye to her. She'll be dead in a minute, maybe two."



15:30 on 5/10/18 (UK date).