The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Central Syria:
This is really all parts of the country which are not otherwise
designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause
more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.
The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long
operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country
this saw them advance from west to east.
In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May
2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated
the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.
To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital
Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had
reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits
almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been
liberated from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) by the Syrians in March 2017.
In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on
the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate
the southern banks of the Euphrates.
In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and
Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.
This though still left several pockets outside of Syrian control;
The first one of these was an area around the town
of al-Tanf. This remained under the partial control of ISIL.
This ISIL pocket has been created by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). They operate a base close to
al-Tanf designated; "Bobby Sands" which they use to train the Islamist
Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT).
Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot
engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence
of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the
base.
The second, much larger, pocket was centred around East Ghouta. This is a
suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital
Damascus.
The East Ghouta area though extends into the East Qalamoun Mountains.
Ruhaybah, the main town in the East Qalamoun Mountains, sits around 35km
(20 miles) north-east of Duma, the main town in the East Ghouta suburb.
East Ghouta itself and the East Qalamoun Mountains were long under the
control of the Army of Conquest. The dominant members of the coalition
in the area being Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam.
However their
influence reduces the further you get into the East Qalamoun Mountains.
An area largely controlled by small fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).
The third pocket was the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian
refugees which sits around 5km (3 miles) south-west of the East Ghouta
suburb. The Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees was long under the control of ISIL.
There was also an area to the west of the Central Syria area outside of Syrian control. The Yarmouk River Basin.
This area is the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of
Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda
Province. These run along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel
including the disputed Golan Heights and the United Nations
Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.
The Army of Conquest had a presence in the area. Again with Al Qaeda and
the Army of Islam being the locally dominant factions within the
coalition.
The ISIL affiliate the Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid also operated in the Yarmouk River Basin.
The main group in the area though was the Southern Front. This is a loose
coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest.
Backed by particularly Britain and Jordan they are a difficult group to
place ideologically. So fragments are secular like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Others are
deeply Islamist and owe more to the Army of Conquest.
In late February 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the
East Ghouta suburb itself. This operation ended in success on April 12th
(12/4/18). The Army of Islam faction of the Army of Conquest
surrendered surrendered the town of Douma placing the entire East Ghouta
suburb under Syrian control.
While conducting operations within the East Ghouta suburb the Syrians
were also attempting to regain control over the East Qalamoun Mountains.
On April 25th (25/4/18) Syrian forces formally entered and raised the
Syrian national flag over the towns of Ruhaybah and Jayroud. This marked
the complete and total liberation of the East Qalamoun Mountains area.
The Battle of East Ghouta saw all the Islamist groups unite to attack
Syrian forces across the country. In an effort to support the Army of
Islam in the battle by dividing the Syrian forces.
This Islamist alliance included ISIL who began attacking the Syrians
from the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees. On March 16th (16/3/18)
the Syrian lines around the Yarmouk Camp collapsed allowing ISIL to take
control of the adjoining al-Qadam district to the west and the
adjoining Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. Both of which are
districts of Damascus itself.
On April 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians began an operation to recover the
al-Qadam and Hajar al-Aswad districts and to expel ISIL from the Yarmouk
Camp completely.
On April 30th (30/4/18) the Army of Conquest within the Yarmouk Camp formally surrendered to the Syrians.
On May 21st (21/5/18) ISIL also surrendered to the Syrians. This
saw them surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the
small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.
On May 22nd (22/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies took full control of the Yarmouk Camp.
This marked the complete closure of the East Ghouta area pocket within the Central Syria area.
On June 19th (19/6/18) the Syrians resumed their operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.
The Syrian approach to this operation was the same as it had been in the Battle of East Ghouta and the operation to liberate the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees;
In order to minimise any loss of life prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout. Under the terms of what has become the standard surrender offered by the
Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.
That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even
have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make
amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian
government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."
Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead
given the option of being transferred to another part of the country.
Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.
Initially none of the groups accepted the surrender offer.
So the Syrians moved to liberate the town of Hirak. This was considered the main gateway to the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area. Sitting as it does on high ground around 110km (65 miles) south of Damascus. Around 30km (20 miles) west
of As-Suweida City and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Daraa City.
On June 28th (28/6/18) the Syrians liberated the town of Hirak. This prompted many of the armed groups to take the Syrians up on their offer of surrender.
On June 30th (30/6/18) the Southern Front coalition in Ibtaa, Um Walad and Eastern Karak, Dael, Western Ghariya, Eastern
Ghariya, Talul Khlayf and Tal Sheikh Hussein surrendered and
opted to join the Amnesty Battalions.
On July 6th (6/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed
to surrender the towns of Kahil, al-Sahwa, al-Jiza and al-Misaifra.
On July 15th (15/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender Daraa City.
On July 31st (31/7/18) ISIL's Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid agreed to surrender all their positions and be transferred to the small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) total Syrian victory declared in the Yarmouk River Basin. The UNDOF has since returned to the Golan Heights.
As I mentioned in yesterday's post much of August and September 2018 were taken up with talk of a looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland area. Or more accurately vocal and hostile opposition to such an operation by the NATO nations and sadly official bodies of the UN.
This was driven in no small part by rumours circulated the Army of Conquest and the Syrians themselves that Syria would be launching an operation on September 10th (10/9/18).
Syria did indeed launch an operation on September 10th (10/9/18). However it was not launched against the Army of Conquest in the Sudetenland. Instead it was launched against the remaining ISIL presence in the Central Syria area.
The majority of the Central Syria area is made up of the Syrian Desert or Badiya al-Sham. This is the World's ninth largest desert and strictly speaking covers an area of 500,000kmsq (200,000 milesq) covering almost all of Syria along with parts of Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
The area in the South-East of Syria along the borders with Jordan and Iraq is really where the desert is at its most extreme. Within the roughly 60,000kmsq (36,000 milesq) area between Damascus, Palmyra, Al-Boukamal/Abu Kamal and Syria's south-eastern border there is almost nothing except for sand dunes and gravel.
Within this area ISIL don't control any population centres, roads or any other strategic locations. They don't even really operate bases. What they do though is operate a number of small, mobile camps.
This actually makes them extremely difficult to locate. When they are located those ISIL camps are identified only by their GPS coordinates. For the small window of time before they are either destroyed or move.
The exception is the Ruqban Camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's). Control of this is shared between ISIL and Maghawir al-Thawra. The Islamist group trained and supported by the US.
The Ruqban Camp sits firmly within the deconfliction zone around America's Bobby Sands base. So if the Syrians were to move to expel ISIL from the camp it would put them in direct conflict with the US.
In fact on September 7th (7/9/18) deployed a company sized Quick Reaction Force (QRF) to conduct a live fire exercise at the Bobby Sands base. Specifically to deter Syria from liberating the Ruqban IDP camp from ISIL. A highly unusual use for a QRF of that size.
Due to the nature of the landscape and the enemy this stretch of the Syrian Desert is an area that needs almost constant sweeping. As a result there have been sporadic hit & run type clashes between the Syrians and ISIL ever since the summer of 2017.
On September 10th (10/9/18) though the Syrians launched a big sweeping operation. This was conducted on two axis. One sweeping west across Deir-ez-Zour Province and one sweeping east across Homs Province.
By September 11th (11/9/18) the Syrians had swept through around 30km (18 miles) clearing the villages of Nariyah and Rashwani. These sit close to Tar as Sarayim hill. Around 70km (40 miles) south-west of as-Suknah.
By September 13th (13/9/18) the Syrians had swept through another roughly 40km (25 miles) to clear the village of Bir al-Hajjah. In the process the Syrians cleared the surrounding Salhub valley. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of as-Suknah.
On September 19th (19/9/18) the two Syrian axis united at Bir al-Hijjah. They also eliminated an ISIL cell which held be holed up on Abtar Mountain just to the south of Palmyra.
At around 17:10 on 12/10/18 (UK date) I'm going to have to pick this up and try and sort out the formatting at a later date.
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