Operation Featherweight: Month 52, Week 1, Day 6.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

The Sudetenland:

Spread across four of Syria's provinces this roughly 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq) area is located in the north-west of the country. Centred around Idlib City it contains more than 30 cities, towns or other major population centres.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

The Sudetenland is currently under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The largest faction, particularly in the Sudetenland, is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. 

Al Qaeda are of course the group who conducted the World's largest ever terrorist attack, striking multiple targets across the US on September 11th 2001 (11/9/01). In retaliation the US, with full support of NATO invaded Afghanistan. A war which is still going on 17 years later.

Alongside The Support Front the Sudetenland has also become home to the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). Rather than being a Syrian affiliate they are original 9/11-era Al Qaeda. 

Ethnically Turkish their focus is creating an Islamic State in the area they consider Turkistan. This is made up of China's Xinjiang Province and the nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The second sizable faction with the Army of Conquest are the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are a particularly vicious group who consider the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to be far too moderate and have executed members of ISIL accordingly.

The Army of Islam committed genocide against Syria's Druze population in the Golan Heights area in 2015. They also attempted to commit a further genocide against the Druze in the Golan Heights in 2017 but were stopped. 

While occupying east Aleppo City the Army of Islam routinely used Chemical Weapons against the Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Something the Army of Islam have openly admitted to.

The Army of Islam presence in the Sudetenland has increased significantly following their retreat their after the liberation of East Ghouta. While occupying East Ghouta the Army of Islam placed civilians in cages and put them on roof tops to act as human shields against airstrikes.

The third sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Army of Glory/Jaish al-Izza (AoG). They were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. This saw them receive anti-tank weapons such as the 9K11 Fagot and the BGM-71 TOW. Along with Man Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) systems such as the 9K38 Iglas and the Mistral.

The fourth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). As with the Army of Glory they were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. Receiving anti-tank weapons such as the BGM-71 TOW.

Nour al-Zinki retreated to the Sudetenland following the liberation of the eastern side of Aleppo City. There they were famous for beheading children, executing homosexuals by throwing them from tall buildings and kidnapping journalists for sale to ISIL.

The fifth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ar-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). However their influence in the Sudetenland has decreased as the Army of Islam's has increased.

The sixth sizable faction with the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA).  

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

As they have done in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the UTA have absorbed fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) such as the 1st Coastal Division into their ranks. Those FSA fragments now function as brigades of the UTA.

There is also a small Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) presence in the Sudetenland under the formal protection of the Army of Conquest.  

The entire area is ringed and protected by a network of small bases or "Control Points" operated by the regular Turkish Military (TSK). Who continue to illegally occupy this and other large parts of Syria.

In December 2016 Russia, Turkey and Iran formed the Astana Process on Syria. 

The first round of meetings the Astana Process were originally scheduled for December 27th 2016 (27/12/16). This would not have worked for me as I was visiting the UK city of Salisbury at the time. However following the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey in Turkey the meetings were brought forward to December 20th (20/12/16).

That first round of meetings in the Astana Process led to the creation of the Astana Ceasefire. This saw the suspension of fighting by all armed groups within Syria. With the exceptions of Al Qaeda, ISIL and at Turkey's demand the SDF.

This created a problem for the Army of Conquest and their occupation of the Sudetenland in particular.  The eternal question was whether the ceasefire excluded just Al Qaeda or all the groups allied with Al Qaeda as part of the Army of Conquest.

This led to a long process of giving the impression that Al Qaeda is not a member of the Army of Conquest.

One part of this process has involved Al Qaeda in Syria changing their name from; "The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra to; "The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."

The second part of the process has involved the other elements of the Army of Conquest referring to themselves as; "The Front for the Liberation of Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Suriya (JTS)."


Obviously the difference between HTS and JTS was not clear enough to convince anyone. 

So on August 1st (1/8/18) the JTS element of the Army of Conquest announced they would be referring to themselves as; "The National Liberation Front/Jabhat Tahrir al-Watania (JTW). This is widely seen as a precursor to them being formally absorbed into the UTA.

The third part of the process has been the creation of the group calling themselves the Guardians of Religion Organisation/Tanzim Hurras ad-Din. They claim to be the new Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda having split from HTS. The intention being to give the false impression that HTS are no longer Al Qaeda.

Despite a social media presence Tanzim Hurras ad-Din do not appear to exist at all.
  
Likewise the division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest exists only on paper.

In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. They launched a joint offensive alongside ISIL against the Syrians. By March 2018 this saw them lose control of the entire al-Hass Plateau which until then had made up the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland.

In mid-March 2018 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest again forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. They launched the combined; "Wrath of Ghouta" offensive in a effort to continue their occupation of East Ghouta by dividing Syria's forces. That offensive was repelled in the space of about a day.

Much of August and late September 2018 has been taken up by talk of a looming Syrian offensive to liberate the Sudetenland. Although many of the people warning of the dangers of such an operation seemed to be under the impression that the Sudetenland was made up of just Idlib City.

On September 17th (17/9/18) Russia and Turkey announced a plan to establish a Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) around the borders of the Sudetenland.

It now seems that this DMZ will extend 15-20km (9-12 miles) into the Sudetenland. Rather than say 10km (6 miles) either side of the line of conflict between Syrian forces and the Army of Conquest. Or along the lines of the Astana Zone which would have seen the Syrians hand much of the Hass Plateau back to the Army of Conquest.

By October 15th (15/10/18) all; "Radical Terror Groups" which I assume means the HTS element of the Army of Conquest are to withdraw entirely from the DMZ. That would imply that the TiP would have to surrender control of Jisr al-Shugour - one of the major population centres in the Sudetenland.

Also by October 15th (15/10/18) all; "Tanks, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and mortars belonging to all conflicting parties" are to be withdrawn from the DMZ. I assume that means the JTS element of the Army of Conquest will have to withdraw all of their heavy weapons from the DMZ.

By the end of 2018 all elements of the Army of Conquest will have to hand control of the M4 and M5 highways back to the Syrian government.

Although this plan was announced on September 17th (17/9/18) details did not start to emerge until September 21st (21/9/18).

Frustratingly for me I returned from another trip to the UK city of Salisbury on September 21st (21/9/18) and immediately fell ill. I say; "ill" it was just a common cold. However as common colds go it was pretty nasty. 

That bout of illness took me almost all the way through the High Level Segment of the Opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). For someone like me that is absolutely the last week of the year you want to be out sick.

As a result I've still not been able to fully catch up and properly consider the implications of the Sudetenland DMZ agreement.

I though am not the only one struggling with the task. The HTS element of the Army of Conquest have yet to establish a formal position on the plan. Despite having held numerous meetings on the matter.

What is clear though is Turkey and Russia's respective reasons for launching the plan.

Turkey was motivated by a desire to maintain the Army of Conquest occupation of the Sudetenland for as long as possible. Their President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long harboured a desire to annex the area as part of his new Ottoman Empire.

Russia though was motivated by fear.

The talk of a looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland was met with open hostility by the NATO nations and, to its shame, official bodies of the United Nations.

For example on August 22nd (22/8/18) the US, the UK and France issued a joint statement. In it they expressed a strong desire to attack Syria on behalf of the Army of Conquest. However they made clear that they would need a pretext - such as a claimed Chemical Weapons attack - to justify such an action.

With Turkish support the Army of Conquest immediately started preparing such a Chemical Weapons attack.

On September 7th (7/9/18) the US convened a meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC). To allow the NATO nations to re-express their strong desire to attack Syria on behalf of the Army of Conquest. 

On September 11th (11/9/18) the UN Special Envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura shamefully held meetings with the Army of Conquest in Geneva. In a clear show of partisan support which is wholly unbecoming of a UN Special Envoy.

Also on that day Russia convened another UNSC meeting. The significance of that date in New York City didn't stop the NATO nations from re-expressing their strong desire to attack Syria on behalf of the Army of Conquest. 

Those words were backed up by a serious military build up. The US positioned three warships including the USS Ross in the Mediterranean Sea, just off the coast of Syria. France also deployed its Aquitaine FREMM frigate.

The main weapon of all four of these warships is their ability to launch Cruise missiles. Such as happened on April 14th 2018 (14/4/18) when US, British and French ships, including the Aquitaine conducted strikes against Syria in support of the Army of Conquest.

Those April 14th (14/4/18) strikes were carried out under the pretext of punishing Syria for a Chemical Weapons attack in East Ghouta on April 7th (7/4/18). 

We are still awaiting the full report from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). However the result of their preliminary investigation is that this Chemical Weapons attack simply did not happen. 

This sudden burst of hostility towards Russia is of course not happening in isolation.

In the US you have the Democrats' attempts to delegitimise the electoral process by claiming Russia rigged the 2016 Presidential Election. This had led to the seemingly never ending investigation by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller.

This has led to US President Donald Trump to attempt to dispel those myths by being seen to take an increasingly tough line against Russia. Even when that runs clearly against US national interests.

You also have the little boys of the Britain's governing Conservative Party ramping up the rhetoric over the poisoning with Chemical Weapons of Sergei Skripal. In the UK city of Salisbury.

That all creates a legitimate fear that the NATO nations will do something stupid. 

Such as using an attack on one of the Turkish Control Points in the Sudetenland as excuse to invoke NATO's Article 5 against Russia. Leading to that Third World War we've all spent 70 years trying to avoid.

It must be said though that NATO's Article 5 is a self-defence clause. It most certainly shouldn't apply why you are attacked whilst illegally hundreds of kilometres in someone else's country.

Ironically Russia's fears materialised just hours after the announcement of the Sudetenland DMZ. A Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft was shot down by Syrian air defences resulting in the loss of 15 Russian lives.

The frenzy of late August, early September was driven by rumours, circulated by the Syrians, that they would launch a big offensive on September 10th (10/9/18).

On September 10th (10/9/18) the Syrians did indeed launch a big offensive. 

However not against the Army of Conquest and not in the Sudetenland. They launched their big offensive against ISIL in two locations in the Central Syria area.

19:00 on 11/10/18 (UK date).