Operation Featherweight: Month 43, Week 4, Day 1

This should be read as a direct continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/operation-featherweight-month-43-week-3_29.html

Shangri-La is not the only area of Syria under SDF control. They also control a roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area in the north-west of Syria. Centred around the city of Afrin this has been designated; "The Afrin Canton."

Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long wanted to annex part or all of Syria as part of a New Ottoman Empire. To this end he has backed various terror groups including ISIL and Al Qaeda to fight against the Syrians.

One of the key groups Erdogan has backed at the United Turkmen Army (UTA). Sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) this is the paramilitary wing of the fascist Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves. Within Syria they operate as an irregular and therefore illegal branch of the Turkish military.

In August 2016 Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade and occupy a roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of northern Syria between Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. The purpose was to stop the SDF linking Shangri-La with Afrin Canton cutting off ISIL and Al Qaeda's supply lines with Turkey in the process. As such this area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."

Within Garvaghy Road and the area to the south of Afrin Canton Erdogan has been steadily absorbing fragments of the long defunct FSA into the UTA. On October 25th 2017 (25/10/17) Erdogan attempted to give the UTA legitimacy by renaming them the Syrian National Army. Despite the fact they're fighting Syria's national army.

The SDF's success against particularly ISIL puts them at odds with Erdogan.

On January 15th 2018 (15/1/18) the UTA and regular Turkish forces within Turkey started intensely shelling Afrin Canton.

Amid continuous shelling Erdogan announced on January 19th 2018 (19/1/18) that he would be sending regular Turkish forces to invade and occupy Afrin Canton. This announcement was apparently coordinated with ISIL's attacks against the SDF at Gharanji and Shafah.

On January 20th 2018 (20/1/18) Erdogan launched his invasion of Afrin Canton.

The first stage of the operation was massive Turkish airstrikes across Afrin Canton. Using 72 strike aircraft this is said to be the largest air attack the Turkish military has ever undertaken.

On January 21st 2018 (21/1/18) the ground phase of the operation was launched.

This began with an attack by regular Turkish forces and the irregular UTA on the west of Afrin Canton.

In this area the key navigation point is the town of Rajo. This is located around 25km (15 miles) north-west of Afrin City and around 5km (2 miles) from Syria's western border with Turkey.

However Erdogan's forces did not attack Rajo directly. Instead they launch a two pronged or "branched" attack to the north of Rajo.

The northern branch launched from Mount Pomza which sits on the Turkish side of the border. It attempted to capture Mount Qarah Baba which sits on the Syrian side of the border roughly 30km (20 miles) north-west of Rajo.

The southern branch attempted to capture a ridge known as Point 740. This sits around 12km (7 miles) west of Rajo just some 5km (2 miles) inside Syria's western border with Turkey.

By January 22nd 2018 (22/1/18) Erdogan's invasion had expanded to include an attack by regular Turkish forces and the UTA on the north of Afrin Canton.

In this area the key navigation point is the town of Bulbul. This sits around 30km (20 miles) north of Afrin City and around 20km (12 miles) north-east of Rajo. Bulbul sits at the foot of Mount Domrik which straddles the border between Syria and Turkey.

However again Erdogan's forces are not attack Bulbul or Mount Domrik directly. Instead they are focusing their efforts on a roughly 10km (6 mile) stretch of border to east.

On January 23rd 2018 (23/1/18) Erdogan's invasion expanded to include attacks by regular Turkish forces and the UTA to the east of Afrin Canton from Garvaghy Road.

Here the two key navigation points are the towns of Azaz and Marea. Together they mark the boundary between the SDF's Afrin Canton and Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road.

Azaz is located around 20km (12 miles) north-east of Afrin City and around 35km (20 miles) south-east of Rajo. From Azaz Erdogan's forces have been attempting to capture Mount Barsaya located around 5km (3 miles) to the north-west.

Marea is located around 30km (20 miles) east of Afrin City and around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz. From Marea Erdogan's forces have been attempt to capture the town of Tal Rifat located around 10km (6 miles) to the south-west.

Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have what is known as the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area."

This is territory occupied by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra who in an effort to disguise their links to Al Qaeda changed their name to The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in June 2017.

Despite being under Al Qaeda control the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area is home to 10 control points or small bases belonging to regular Turkish forces.

In fact one event that may have triggered Erdogan's attack on Afrin Canton is that on January 12th (12/1/18) Turkish troops with the support of Al Qaeda attempted to establish a further control point close to al-Eis which is around 25km (15 miles) south-east of the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area. They were shelled by Syrian forces and several Turkish troops were wounded.

On January 24th 2018 (24/1/18) Erdogan's invasion of Afrin Canton was expanded to include an attack by regular Turkish forces and Al Qaeda on the south of Afrin Canton.

Here the two key navigation points are the city of Cindirese/Jandairis which sits around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Afrin City and the town of Salwa which sits around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Cindirese just inside the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area.

In this area Erdogan's forces have been attempting to capture Mount Qalat. This sits around 5km (3 miles) north of Salwa.

After 10 days of what has been extremely fierce fighting Erdogan's forces have yet to significantly advance from those starting positions. The only confirmed gain by those forces has been Point 740 a mere 5km (3 miles) inside of Afrin Canton.

Turkish media however has reported a number of great successes.

Some of these reports are simply false. For example just today (30/1/18) the state-run Anadolu news agency reported that Erdogan's forces had captured the villages of Sati Ushaghi & Suleiman Khali. These are located some 15km (10 miles) east of Rajo. For Erdogan's forces to have advanced that far overnight the SDF's defences would have had to collapse completely. That is the sort of thing that people would notice.

However what is more common is that Erdogan's forces have attacked an area making short-term gains. The SDF have then responded with a counter-offensive which has completely forced Erdogan's forces out of the area. A prime example of this would be Mount Barsaya.

On January 24th 2018 (24/1/18) Erdogan's forces announced that they'd captured Mount Barsaya. The SDF then launched a counter-offensive and had recaptured all of the mountain by that evening.

On January 28th 2018 (28/1/18) Erdogan's forces announced they'd captured Mount Barsaya and invited selected members of the international media to inspect the peak. The SDF then launched a counter-offensive and had recaptured the mountain by that evening.

Apart from resisting the assaults by Erdogan's forces the SDF have also been able to conduct a number of nighttime raids of their own.

On January 24th 2018 (24/1/18) they raided a regular Turkish military base at Marea. They succeeded in killing three regular Turkish soldiers and destroying an number of armoured vehicles.

On January 27th 2018 (27/1/18) the SDF conducted coordinated raids against eight regular Turkish military bases at Tawis, Azaz, Marea, Kafra and Tal Mated all to the east of Afrin Canton. They killed a number of regular Turkish soldiers and destroyed armoured vehicles and artillery positions.

Alongside a lack of progress on the ground Erdogan's forces have been suffering a high rate of casualties.

So far in the operation the SDF have destroyed seven regular Turkish military tanks. This included by Avesta Khabur a 20 year old member of the SDF's elite Anti-Terrorism Unit (YAT). On January 27th 2018 (27/1/18) she single-handedly placed an explosive charge on an advancing Turkish tank destroying it. Sadly she was killed in the explosion.

The type of tank regular Turkish forces use is the German made Leopard II. This has a crew of four. In all of the seven tanks Turkey has lost so far all crew members have been killed. That gives the regular Turkish military a deathtoll of 28 from its losses of tanks alone.

Over the night of January 25th (25/1/18) Erdogan's forces attempted attacks on the east of Afrin Canton. Those attacks were repelled of the SDF and seven regular Turkish soldiers were killed.

Photographs of those dead Turkish soldiers rapidly appeared online challenging Erdogan's claim that only two Turkish soldiers have been killed in the entire operation. Erdogan's response was to block websites providing information about the Syria conflict across Turkey.

The Turkish deathtoll is such that it is rumoured that in the last few days Turkey has attempted to open negotiations with the SDF.

This lack of progress by Erdogan's forces or perhaps more accurately the deluge of false information from the Turkish media puts me in something of a difficult position.

This attack on Afrin Canton seems to have been launched only because Erdogan lost a bet. He gambled that the threat of an attack on Afrin Canton would be enough to get Russia to pressure Syria to stop an offensive of its own against Al Qaeda to the south of the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area. He was wrong.

In diplomacy normally what you do in a situation like this is offer a way for someone to quietly back out of a mistake they've made while avoiding embarrassment in the eyes of their domestic supporters.

As such I can't help but think it would be better for me to not point out that almost all of the claims made by the Turkish media are entirely false. Then when they've falsely reported enough 'victories' Erdogan can declare the operation a success and end it without anything actually changing on the ground.

Erdogan himself however does not seem keen to take up this option. Despite his forces lack of progress Erdogan continues to make aggressive statements about expanding the operation beyond Afrin Canton to Shangri-La.

For all his bluster though signs of desperation are clearly starting to show.

Domestically Erdogan has placed 15 Turkish towns and villages under curfew to prevent protests. Erdogan has also prosecuted members of the opposition People's Democratic Party (HDP) for criticising the attack on Afrin Canton. Just today (30/1/18) eight members of the executive committee of the Turkish Medial Association have been arrested over their refusal to support Erdogan's aggression.

The tactics used by the Turkish military have also become more wild and reckless;

On January 25th 2018 (25/1/18) they conducted airstrikes against Manbij and Tal Abyad/Gire Spi. These are located within Shangri-La some 100km (60 miles) and 200km (120 miles) east of Afrin Canton.

In this area the US, France and the UK has Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and regular forces based with the US alone having some 2,000 troops stationed there. These Turkish airstrikes create a very real risk that those troops will be killed or injured giving the CJTFOIR nations no option to intervene.

In their effort to cling on to Mount Barsaya on January 28th 2018 (28/1/18) the Turkish air force deployed Napalm against the SDF's advance. Something which is wholly illegal under international law.

Also on January 28th (28/1/18) the Turkish air force conducted multiple airstrikes targeting the Maydanki Dam. Those airstrikes were repeated on January 29th 2018 (29/1/18).

Located around 15km (10 miles) north of Afrin City the Maydanki Dam holds back the Maydanki Reservoir. If Erdogan's forces were to succeed in blowing up the dam it would send floodwater crashing down towards Afrin City killing potentially 200,000 civilians in the process.

In March 2017 the SDF were forced to undertake an operation to liberate the city of Tabqa on the Euphrates River from ISIL. The reason for this operation was to deny ISIL the opportunity to blow up Tabqa Dam in order to protect civilians living in the Euphrates River basin.

If Erdogan's forces continue to threaten Maydanki Dam then CJTFOIR have no option other than to deploy aircraft and air defence systems to totally eliminate that threat.

At around 18:50 on 30/1/18 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up later.

Edited at around 20:05 on 30/1/18 (UK date) to add;

Also on January 28th 2018 (28/1/18) Erdogan's forces conducted an airstrike against the Gubli. There they killed 13 civilians.

In their resistance of Erdogan's forces the SDF have also suffered significant casualties.

Although it is subject to change minute-by-minute, second-by-second the SDF's deathtoll currently stands at 34. Earlier in the week this was misreported as 43 by people who'd miscounted the 10 killed in the battle of Gharanji.

The Turkish military however are reporting that they have killed 649 members of the SDF.

Erdogan of course is prone to just completely making things up. However the large disconnect of 615 deaths raises concern that Erdogan's are simply listing civilians they have killed as members of the SDF.

Obviously any deaths or injuries the SDF sustain at the hands of Erdogan's forces undermine their ability to fight ISIL in the Euphrates River basin. Already the SDF has been forced to redeploy forces from the ongoing Cizre Storm operation to resist Erdogan's attacks.

On January 26th 2018 (26/1/18) British and American members of the SDF's International Brigade volunteered to be redeployed from Shangri-La to Afrin Canton.

On January 29th 2018 (29/1/18) the Assyrian/Syriac Military Council (MFS) element of the SDF also redeployed part of their force to Afrin Canton.

20:20 on 30/1/18 (UK date).