Operation Featherweight: Month 43, Week 3, Day 1.

This should be read as a continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/operation-featherweight-month-43-week-2_22.html

As you would expect the collapse of his Army of Conquest in both the Hama and Sudetenland Astana Zones has left Erdogan even more furious than usual.

On January 6th 2018 (6/1/18) Tahrir al-Sham conducted coordinated drone attacks against the Russian Khmeimim Air Base in Syria's Latakia Province and against the Russian Naval Base at Tartus - capital of Syria's Tartus Province. 

Normally when we talk about drones we're actually talking about remote control aircraft. Although there is no pilot on board the aircraft are being piloted by a person on the ground. As the US learnt during the Battle for Mosul in Iraq all you need to do to stop this type of attack is jam the electronic signal between the aircraft and the pilot. Gravity takes care of the rest.

The drones used by Tahrir al-Sham in the attacks against Khmeimim and Tartus were true drones. They had no pilots. Instead they'd been programmed to take-off, drop bombs on their targets and return to base all without any further human involvement. 

Doing this is extremely complicated. The drone not only needs to know exactly where it's target is it also needs to know exactly where it is while travelling at speed over distance. This requires an extremely complicated satellite guided navigation similar to what the US uses for its Tomahawk Cruise Missiles.

The Global Positioning System (GPS) you might use on your Satnav or cellphone is actually provided by the US military. Specifically to prevent it being used as this type of weapons guidance system they actually fuzzy up the signal so while it's accurate enough to get you to your destination it's not accurate enough to guide a missile onto a target.

As far as we know neither Al Qaeda nor ISIL have established their own network of navigation satellites. Blasting multiple ballistic missiles into orbit is the sort of thing that gets noticed in military circles.

Therefore one of only a handful of nation states must have provided Tahrir al-Sham with the complex navigation system needed to guide their drones. I think it is extremely unlikely that Russia did this in order to attack its own bases. Despite the tension over reconstruction contracts I think that it is also extremely unlikely that China did it.

That only leaves Erdogan and Turkey who are known to be closely allied with both Al Qaeda and ISIL. Turkey itself only has access to this type of complex navigation system because the US provides it to them as a member of NATO. 

The threat from Erdogan Russia was quite clear; Either cease the operations in the Sudetenland and Hama Astana Zones or Erdogan will attack Russia. That risks the confrontation people worked to avoid throughout the Cold War between NATO and Russia.

Russia identified the base in western Idlib Province used in the attack and destroyed it on January 12th 1018 (12/1/18).

In case Russia did not get the message on January 10th 2018 (10/1/18) both the Russian and Iranian Ambassadors were summoned by Turkey. There the message was made explicit; Erdogan demands that Al Qaeda be protected in both the Sudetenland and Hama Astana Zones.

The following day on January 11th 2018 (11/1/18) Erdogan publicly threatened to invade the Afrin Canton controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) unless operations against Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland and Hama Astana Zones ceased.

The SDF are backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). Not only with airpower but also through Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and regular forces on the ground.

However particularly under former President Barack Obama those US troops have been forced to rely on Russia to protect them from attacks by Erdogan.

In August 2016 Erdogan sent regular Turkish to illegally invade and occupy an area of northern Syria designated; "Garvaghy Road." This stretches for roughly 100km (60 miles) from the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west to the Euphrates River in the east. 

Erdogan's objective here was to prevent the SDF from linking Afrin Canton with the Shangri-La area they control east of the Euphrates. Such a move by the SDF would cut Turkey's supplies with both ISIL to the south-east and Al Qaeda to the south-west.

In October 2016 Erdogan launched a series of attacks against the SDF both in Afrin Canton an Shangri-La. These were predominately air and artillery strikes but also saw the use of chemical weapons by Erdogan's forces on October 25th 2016 (25/10/16).

The US offered no response to these attacks. They were only brought to a halt when Syrian aircraft struck Erdogan's forces killing four Turkish soldiers. The following day (26/10/16) Syria turned on its air defence systems effectively grounding Turkish aircraft.

Between November 2016 and February 2017 Erdogan continued these sporadic attacks against the SDF with no response from the US.

On February 14th 2017 (14/2/17) it fell to Russia to establish a "Security Line" by moving its forces in between Erdogan's forces at al-Bab and the SDF at Manbij. Erdogan's immediate response was to conduct an airstrike on those Russian forces on February 20th 2017 (20/2/17) killing four.

On September 6th 2017 (6/9/17) Russia established another "Security Line" by moving its forces between Erdogan's forces in the Sudetenland and the SDF in Afrin Canton.

Therefore Erdogan's January 11th 2018 (11/1/18) threat to attack Afrin Canton was not so much a threat to attack the SDF. Instead it was a threat to attack the Russian forces on the Security Line unless Russia ceased operations against Al Qaeda in both the Sudetenland and Hama Astana Zones.

On January 13th 2018 (13/1/18) the US announced plans to turn the SDF into a border force. I read about this at the time and found it to be amongst the most banal of that day's news.

The US' plan is not to create a new force. Instead it is to take existing members of the SDF and train them in border security techniques such as manning checkpoints, searching vehicles and the sort of human rights training that goes along with dealing with the civilian public.

Yesterday (22/1/18) I said that re-tasking the SDF as a border force will undermine its ability to conduct offensive military operations. That's not quite true.

Members of the SDF will still have the combat experience they already possess. However this shift signals that the SDF will not attempt to expand their territory any further and is the first step towards them being equipped with light weapons rather than heavy, combat weapons.

The only way that Erdogan could be offended or alarmed by this move is if he thinks he has the right to enter Syrian territory at any time he likes. International law is quite clear on this point; Erdogan does not have that right.

Obviously though - particularly now Obama has gone - Erdogan can't turn around to the other members of NATO and say that he wants to attack Afrin Canton as a way to blackmail Russia into protecting Al Qaeda in both the Sudetenland and Hama Astana Zones.

So instead Erdogan has latched his existing threat to attack Afrin Canton onto these US plans to re-task the SDF as a border force. The hope being the US is so caught up in its own vanity that it won't notice Erdogan's true motive.

Also I don't think it is particularly a secret that US President Donald Trump is a big fan of border security and border walls in particular.

Ending yesterday (22/1/18) the US government was shutdown over a budget dispute. The Democrats want to keep effectively an amnesty for illegal immigrants called DACA. In return Trump and the Republicans want funding for a border wall between Mexico and the US.

Reforming the US immigration is a complex issue which really warrants a post of its own. If we can go five minutes without a crisis.

However if you renew DACA or any other amnesty for illegal immigrants already in the US without building a border wall you are turning US citizenship into a commodity. One that can be sold by criminal cartels to weak and vulnerable people.

In fact when former President Obama introduced DACA it triggered a mass increase in illegal immigration into the US. This caused a completely avoidable humanitarian crisis all along the US southern border.

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) especially deals with children. That turns children into the most valuable commodity for people trafficking cartels.

In this war I have seen many horrific things. Being prepared to buy and sell children still stands out as the lowest of the low. 

By illegitimately framing his desire to invade Afrin Canton as a border security issue Erdogan is hoping that President Trump will confuse it with his own legitimate desire to secure the US' southern border.

Of course while US Democrats were having palpitations over Candidate Trump's desire to build a border well former President Obama was actually helping Erdogan to build a massive border wall between not just Turkey and Syria but also Turkey and Iraq.

Unlike President Trump's plans Erdogan has actually built his border wall inside of Syrian and Iraqi territory.

In launching his attack on Afrin Canton Erdogan is telling the Turkish public that this border wall has not worked. Turkey is no more secure then it was before it build the wall. So now he has to invade.

It's almost as if Erdogan is writing the US Democrats mid-term campaign for them.

On Thursday (18/1/18) Russia called Erdogan's bluff. They removed their forces from Afrin Canton while operations against Al Qaeda continued in both the Sudetenland and the Hama Astana Zones unabated.

Following a short delay for bad weather Erdogan was left with really no other choice than to launch his operation on Saturday (20/1/18).

That operation has been codenamed; "Operation Olive Branch." Although the operation itself is appalling I suppose we should congratulate Erdogan with finally coming up with a halfway decent codename.

The purpose of codenames is to disguise your purpose and confuse your enemy. So I talk in terms of Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road and the Bobby Sands.

I have designated operations in Syria and Iraq in their entirety; "Featherweight." That is in reference to the lightest and softest hitting weight class in combat sports and the practice of giving a white feather signifying cowardice to draft dodgers who refused to fight against the German and Ottoman Empires in the First World War.

It is really in honour of former President Obama. He efforts to strike ISIL always seemed more like a loving caress.

Throughout 2015 Erdogan very much wanted to invade the Garvaghy Road area of Syria at the town of Jarablus. He codenamed this operation; "Operation; Jarablus" or Cereblus in Turkish. He couldn't even conjure up the creativity to go with Cerberus - the Hound of Hades who prevented the dead from escaping hell.

In Greek mythology Poseidon - father of Pegasus - battled Athena for control of Athens. Poseidon struck the ground with his trident cause water to spring forth. Athena used the water to plant and Olive tree. This led to Athena being given control over Athens by the council of gods. Since then an Olive branch has been used as a symbol of peace through victory.

By choosing Olive Branch as the name for his invasion of Afrin Canton Erdogan is clearly trying to convince people his victory will bring peace. The moral of Athena securing victory over the father of Pegasus by using constructive rather than destructive force is clearly lost on him.

Also Afrin Canton is large olive producer contributing to significantly to Syria's pre-war exports of around US$630m. Through the choice of codename Erdogan is signally that he intends to branch out to steal that olive production. Unusually the Turkish Finance Minister has been providing daily updates on how the operation is going to boost Turkey's economy.

Finally the operation has been planned upon multiple axis or branches across this olive producing region - the north-west, the north-east, the south-east and the south-west.

The first stage of the operation which began on Saturday (20/1/18) was a massive barrage of air and artillery strikes which killed at least 18 civilians.

Ground operations began on Sunday (21/1/18). I am still trying to get a handle on Erdogan's exact military objectives.

Initially the operation was planned to seize all of Afrin Canton. This would effectively make it part of Garvaghy Road. The objective then would be to seize Manbij on the western bank of the Euphrates and the starting point of Shangri-La.

Since the operation has been scaled back simply to seize all of Afrin Canton.

It has since been scaled back even further to establish just a 30km (20 mile) Turkish zone within Afrin Canton. However with the city of Afrin at the heart of Afrin Canton being just 20km (10 miles) from the border with Turkey even that would undermine Afrin Canton as SDF controlled territory.

Sunday's (20/1/18) ground operation focused around the town of Rajo in the north-west of Afrin Canton. The key strategic location there is Adah Mandil Hill. The Turkish media were keen to report that the hill was captured. However they seem to have failed to report that it was liberated and back under SDF control by the end of the day.

On Monday (21/1/18) the ground operation shifted entirely to the north-east of Afrin Canton focusing on Azaz where Afrin Canton meets Garvaghy Road. The key strategic location there is Barsayah Hill. Again Turkish media were quick to report its capture but have yet to report that it was liberated and back under SDF control by the end of the day.

Today (22/1/18) the ground operation has shifted entirely again. It is now focusing on the south-west of Afrin Canton where it borders Turkey and the Sudetenland. I am still awaiting updates of how that fighting is progressing.

Since then bad weather has set in again. So apart from Erdogan launching airstrikes against Afrin Canton's Maydanki Reservoir killing six civilians on Wednesday (24/1/18) not much has happened.

Again suggesting this might not have been the most well planned military operation in history.

18:35 on 23/1/18 (UK date).

Edited at around 16:45 on 25/1/18 (UK date) to include above the paragraphs I omitted because I was in a rush.

17:30 on 25/1/18 (UK date)