Operation Featherweight: Month 43, Week 3, Day 7.

In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were at their most powerful.

They controlled large swathes of both Iraq and Syria. They'd declared themselves to be an Islamist Caliphate. Their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be it's Caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa to be its capital.

On November 3rd 2017 (3/11/17) Iraq was able to declare itself functionally liberated from ISIL. Although the group does retain a small clandestine presence in the country it no longer controls any areas or population centres.

Within Syria ISIL have been reduced to several small areas. In the border area between Homs, Hama and Idlib Provinces and the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees in the suburbs of the Syrian capital Damascus.

ISIL are also allied with Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibn al-Walid group. They operate in the south-western Daraa Province along the basin of the Yarmouk River close to the Golan Heights United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.

The main focus though has been on ousting ISIL from their traditional heartland. This is in the north-west of the country centred around the Euphrates River basin.

In the latter half of 2017 the Syrians themselves have been working to removing ISIL from the areas on the south bank of the Euphrates River. This began in August 2017 with the liberation of as-Suknah. The Syrians then went on to liberate the major cities of Mayadin, Deir-ez-Zour City and Abu Kamal/Abu Bukamal.

Having cleared all the areas between those cities the Syrians were able to declare the south bank of the Euphrates completely liberated on December 5th 2017 (5/12/17).

The job of liberating the area north-east of the Euphrates has fallen to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a coalition of forces that was created in October 2015.

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

Although the SDF did not formally come into being until October 2015 the YPG have been operating alongside fragments of the FSA since the Battle of Kobane in the winter of 2014/15.

In July 2015 this unnamed combined force liberated the town Tel Abyad/Gire Spi from ISIL. Tel Abyad sits right on the border between Syria and Turkey around 45km (25 miles) east of the Euphrates.

In August 2015 this precursor to the SDF liberated the city of Hasakah from both ISIL and Syrian forces. Hasakah sits around 60km (35 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 75km (45 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.

The liberations of Tal Abyad and Hasakah put what became the SDF in control of a vast area of north-eastern Syria from the Euphrates to Syria's borders with Turkey and Iraq. For operational reasons this area which cuts across parts of several of Syria's provinces has been designated; "Shangri-La."

In November 2016 the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates." It's ultimate objective was to liberate the city of Raqqa from ISIL. However before it could do that it had to expand Shangri-La to Raqqa City.

In late November 2016 the SDF took up positions around 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa having liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq) of territory.

In early January 2017 the SDF took up positions at Lake Assad around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 3,200kmsq (1.920 milesq) of territory along the eastern bank of the Euphrates from where the river enters Syria from Turkey.

In March 2017 the SDF took up positions at Karamah around 30km (20 miles) east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 1000kmsq (600 milesq) of territory.

In early May the SDF liberated the town of Tabqa and took control of the Tabqa Dam. This sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 50km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. Tabqa Dam forms Lake Assad out of the Euphrates.

On June 6th 2017 (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. Raqqa was fully liberated on October 19th 2017 (19/10/17).

While the operation to liberate Raqqa City was ongoing the SDF were also advancing south-east along the north bank of the Euphrates from Karamah.

On September 9th 2017 (9/9/17) the SDF launched a second operation along the Euphrates basin. This was codenamed; "Cizre Storm."

At the time Cizre Storm was launched the only area of Syria north-east of the Euphrates River which did not fall under SDF control as part of Shangri-La is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.

Roughly in the shape of a triangle this area had as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.

Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.

The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.

Although the technical aspects of the operation are more complex put simply it has two phases; To advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Khobar River. Then cross the river and advance to the Syria/Iraq border.

Within both of those phases there are two strands; Liberating the largely unpopulated areas of desert north of the Euphrates. Liberating the population centres that sit directly on the north bank of the Euphrates.

On September 26th 2017 (26/9/17) the SDF reached and liberated the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the western bank of the Khobar roughly 95km (60 miles) south-east of the Madan-Shadaddi Line.

On October 4th 2017 (4/10/17) the SDF reached the town of Markadah. This sits on the western bank of the Khobar roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of the Madan-Shadaddi Line and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of as-Suwar. Markadah went on to be liberated on October 20th 2017 (20/10/17).

On October 10th 2017 (10/10/17) the SDF reached and liberated the town of Zuwaymiah. This sits on the western bank of the Khobar right where it meets the Euphrates. It is around 100km (60 miles) south-east of the Madan-Shadaddi Line and around 40km (25 miles) south-west of as-Suwar.

The liberation of Zuwaymiah meant that the SDF had reached the Khobar River at three points and the first phase of the Cizre Storm operation had been completed.

On October 14th 2017 (14/10/17) the SDF advanced from Karamah arrived at the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City. This linked the Cizre Storm and Wrath of Euphrates operations.

On October 20th 2017 (20/10/17) the Cizre Storm operation crossed the Khobar.

On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert strand reached the Syria/Iraq border roughly at the village of Mallah and its associated Salt Pan. This sits roughly 45km (25 miles) north-east of where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria.

The task of liberating the urban areas along the north bank of the Euphrates is more complicated than liberating the unpopulated desert areas. Therefore this river strand has understandably made slower progress.

However because the SDF control the area to the north of those urban areas they have been able to advance south to the Euphrates. This has allowed them to cut the urban areas off from each other and liberate them in what to the untrained eye seems a haphazard way.

The immediate focus was on liberating the town of Busayrah. This sits almost on an island where the Euphrates and Khobar Rivers meet. Busayrah was liberated by the SDF on November 11th 2017 (11/11/17).

Having liberated Busayrah the SDF then advanced south-east towards the town of Diban. This sits around 20km (10 miles) south-east of Busayrah and was liberated on November 17th 2017 (17/11/17). En route from Busayrah to Diban the SDF also liberated Shuhyal and al-Gharbi which sit between the two.

The SDF advance then leapfrogged to liberate the town of Abu Hamman on December 1st 2017 (1/12/17). This sits around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Diban.

The SDF advance leapfrogged again to liberate the town of Hajin and the nearby village of Grennig on December 7th 2017 (7/12/17) and December 8th 2017 (8/12/17). Hajin sits around 45km (30 miles) south-east of Diban. It is actually closer to the Syria/Iraq border which sits 30km (20 miles) south-east of Hajin.

On December 2nd (2/12/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the towns of Darnaj, Suwaydan Jazirah, al-Jurdi al-Gharbi and al-Jurdi ash-Sharqi. These all sit in the area between Diban and Abu Hamman.

Suwaydah was reported liberated on December 12th 2017 (12/12/17). Al-Jurdi al-Gharbi was reported liberated the following day on December 13th 2017 (13/12/17). On December 17th (17/12/17) al-Jurdi ash-Sharqi was reported liberated.
 
On November 15th 2017 (15/11/17) the SDF's river strand launched an operation to liberate the roughly 225kmsq (135milesq) area between Abu Hamman and Hajin. Prior to the ISIL takeover this area was under the control of the Sheitat Tribe who are traditionally very loyal to the Syrian government.

By December 30th 2017 (30/12/17) the SDF had liberated the towns of Marsama Gharbi and al-Khuskiyah. This left the town of Gharanji as the only town under ISIL control within the Sheitat Tribal Area.

At the same time the SDF had been advancing north-west from Hajin towards the Sheitat Tribal Area. By December 29th 2017 (29/12/17) they had liberated the villages of Jubb al-Bahrah, al-Qahawi, al-Jabal and Kashkiyan.

This left only al-Bahrah directly bordering the Sheitat Tribal Area and the towns between Hajin and Abu Kamal under ISIL control.

Amid all of the recent big battles such as for the cities of Raqqa and Mosul in Iraq ISIL have to some extent fled. They take their most precious resources such as their leader al-Baghdadi and move them to fallback positions.

The final stages of this Cizre Storm operation mean that ISIL have now run out of places to flee to. With ISIL being forced to make their last stand the fighting in this area has intensified significantly. 

On January 19th 2018 (19/1/18) ISIL forces at both Gharanji and Shafah launched largescale coordinated attacks against the SDF. Shafah is located around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Hajin and around 15km (10 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal.

At Gharanji SDF resisted the assault by ISIL and launched a counter-offensive which succeeded in liberating the town on January 24th 2018 (24/1/18). Ten members of the SDF gave their lives in this operation. In the process they killed high profile German ISIL member Denis Cuspert. Using the stage name; "Deso Dogg" Cuspert had become known as the Jihadi Rapper.

At Shafah the SDF have also resisted ISIL's attacks however they do not appear to have launched a counter-offensive to liberate the town. They did though direct a US airstrike on January 23rd 2018 (23/1/18) which succeeded in killing between 145 and 150 ISIL fighters.

Shangri-La is not the only area of Syria under SDF control. They also control a roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area in the north-west of Syria. Centred around the city of Afrin this has been designated; "The Afrin Canton."

Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long wanted to annex part or all of Syria as part of a New Ottoman Empire. To this end he has backed various terror groups including ISIL and Al Qaeda to fight against the Syrians.

One of the key groups Erdogan has backed at the United Turkmen Army (UTA). Sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) this is the paramilitary wing of the fascist Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves. Within Syria they operate as an irregular and therefore illegal branch of the Turkish military.

In August 2016 Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade and occupy a roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of northern Syria between Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. The purpose was to stop the SDF linking Shangri-La with Afrin Canton cutting off ISIL and Al Qaeda's supply lines with Turkey in the process. As such this area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."

Within Garvaghy Road and the area to the south of Afrin Canton Erdogan has been steadily absorbing fragments of the long defunct FSA into the UTA. On October 25th 2017 (25/10/17) Erdogan attempted to give the UTA legitimacy by renaming them the Syrian National Army. Despite the fact they're fighting Syria's national army.

The SDF's success against particularly ISIL puts them at odds with Erdogan.

On January 15th 2018 (15/1/18) the UTA and regular Turkish forces within Turkey started intensely shelling Afrin Canton.

Amid continuous shelling Erdogan announced on January 19th (19/1/18) that he would be sending regular Turkish forces to invade and occupy Afrin Canton. This announcement was apparently coordinated with ISIL's attacks against the SDF at Gharanji and Shafah.

On January 20th 2018 (20/1/18) Erdogan launched his invasion of Afrin Canton.

At around 18:20 on 29/1/18 (UK date) I will have to pick that up after dinner.