Operation Featherweight: Month 43, Week 2, Day 7.

This should be read as a continuation of Saturday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/operation-featherweight-month-43-week-2_20.html

Directly to the south of the Sudetenland you have the Hama Astana Zone. Due to the way that Syria's provinces are arranged this not only includes all of Hama Province but also large parts of Homs and Aleppo Provinces.

This zone is unusual. The Astana Zones Agreement was intended to apply the Astana Ceasefire to areas where the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are not present. However ISIL have maintained a presence within the Hama Astana Zone on the border with Hama, Homs and Aleppo Provinces meet.

Despite this the Hama Astana Zone went into effect on August 3rd 2017 (3/8/17).

However it collapsed on August 29th 2017 (29/8/17). The Al Qaeda element of the Army of Conquest - Tahrir al-Sham/Jabhat al-Nusra - teamed up with ISIL to launch an offensive against the Syrians. 

This combined Al Qaeda/ISIL offensive primarily targeted the area around the town of Ltamenah. This sits around 25km (15 miles) north-west of Hama City which is under Syrian control.

In an effort to save the Astana Zones Agreement the Syrians initially did not respond to this offensive. This allowed Tahrir al-Sham and ISIL to seize control of Ltamenah and the town of Kafr Zita which sits roughly 6km (3.5 miles) north of Ltamenah.

However as more areas under Syrian control an Syrian civilians became threatened by the Al Qaeda/ISIL advance the Syrians were forced to suppress the offensive. This was done by artillery and airstrikes.

On September 18th 2017 (18/9/17) the Syrians were able to re-liberate Ltamenah and Kafr Zita. By September 21st 2017 (21/9/17) the combined Al Qaeda/ISIL offensive had been halted completely.

On October 7th 2017 (7/10/17) Tahrir al-Sham launched a fresh offensive against the Syrians. This time focused on the town of Abu Dali. This sits just on the Hama side of the border between Hama and Homs Provinces. It is roughly 70km (40 miles) north-east of Homs City and around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Hama City.

On October 8th (8/10/17) Tahrir al-Sham captured Abu Dali and the surrounding villages of Musherifa and Tamat al-Khalifa.

This fresh Tahrir al-Sham offensive occurred just a day after regular Turkish forces had entered the Sudetenland on October 6th (6/10/17). 

At this time Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was desperate to show both that Tahrir al-Sham were separate from Al Qaeda and that they were not allied with ISIL.

So on October 9th 2017 (9/10/17) ISIL helpfully announced that they were at war with Tahrir al-Sham. This again took the form of the shoving match between Al Qaeda and ISIL which became so familiar when Erdogan wanted to send regular Turkish forces to invade the Garvaghy Road area throughout much of 2015 and 2016.

Despite this supposed conflict between Tahrir al-Sham and ISIL there have actually been only a handful of occasions on which the two groups have clashed.

On October 9th 2017 (9/10/17) ISIL seized the villages of Buyud, Andarin, Qasr Ibn Warden and Muslokhah from Tahrir al-Sham. These all sit on the border between Hama and Aleppo Provinces around 50km (30 miles) north-east of Hama City. ISIL returned control of the villages to Tahrir al-Sham that same day.

On November 22nd 2017 (22/11/17) ISIL seized several villages around Suruj from Tahrir al-Sham including Suruj itself. Suruj is located around 10km (6 miles) south-west of Qasr Ibn Warden. Again ISIL returned control of these villages to Tahrir al-Sham that same day.

On November 29th 2017 (29/11/17) ISIL seized the village of Abu Awjah from Tahrir al-Sham. A tiny hamlet Abu Awjah is located around 25km (15 miles) north-west of Homs City and around 40km (25 miles) south-west of Hama City. Again ISIL returned control of the village to Tahrir al-Sham that same day.

On December 8th 2017 (8/12/17) ISIL seized a number of villages around Suruj from Tahrir al-Sham. On this occasion ISIL's offensive lasted a full day coming to an end on December 9th (9/12/17). ISIL then waited all the way until December 22nd 2017 (22/12/17) before returning the territory to Tahrir al-Sham.

This shoving match was intended to serve two purposes for Erdogan. The first is to convince people that Al Qaeda and ISIL are fighting each other rather than allied with each other. 

Secondly it was intended to convince primarily the local population that ISIL are allied with the Syrians. 

Apparently the Syrian offensive against ISIL in the Euphrates River basin which killed tens of thousands of ISIL fighters and liberated several large cities was just an elaborate ruse to allow ISIL to temporarily seize a handful of villages in and around Hama Province.

Mainly though within the Hama Astana Zone ISIL have focused on fighting the Syrians alongside Tahrir al-Sham.

On December 5th 2017 (5/12/17) ISIL bombed a civilian bus in Homs City killing 10.

Since January 13th 2018 (13/1/18) ISIL have been conducting a sustained offensive against Syrian forces close to Abu al-Duhur. This seems to be a deliberate attempt to relieve pressure on Tahrir al-Sham who have been collapsing in the area in the face of a Syrian advance.

In response to Tahrir al-Sham's Abu Dali offensive launched on October 7th 2017 (7/10/17) the Syrians have not launched a counter offensive. Instead they've moved to suppress Tahrir al-Sham through an increased use of artillery and airstrikes.

Rather than countering Tahrir al-Sham at Abu Dali the Syrians instead launched a largescale operation of their own against the group on October 25th 2017 (25/10/17).

This began from positions close to the town of Ithriyah where Hama, Homs and Aleppo Provinces meet. Ithriyah itself is around 95km (60 miles) north-east of Hama City and around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Idlib City. Although was not revealed the time its ultimate objective was the military airbase at the town of Abu Duhur. This sits around 45km (30 miles) south-east of Idlib City.

One of the groups that make up Tahrir al-Sham are the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). They are original Al Qaeda.

The group's founder Zeydin Yusup fought alongside Osama bin Laden against the Soviets in Afghanistan. In 1989 the TiP established their headquarters in Kabul under the protection of the Taliban before being evicted by US forces in 2001. They continue to be closely allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Pakistani Taliban.

Not to be mistaken with Turkmenistan the TiP wish to establish the Islamist state of Turkistan. They believe this should exist in parts of Mongolia and Tajikistan. Primarily though they wish to locate Turkistan within China's north-eastern Xinjiang Province.

Islamist groups in east and central Asia has been something of a recurring theme within the conflict;

On June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) an Islamist terrorist gun attack was carried out at the Pulse gay Nightclub in Orlando, Florida, US. This resulted in the murder of 49 people.

The gunman Omar Mateen was from Afghanistan. Amongst other reasons he was chosen because within Afghan society he would be considered not an Afghan but as a member of the Pushtu ethnic group. Uzbeks, Turks, Tajiks are also large ethnic groups within Afghanistan.

On October 31st 2017 (31/10/17) an Islamist terrorist conducted a run-over terror attack in New York City, US. This killed 8. The attacker was identified as Sayfullo Saipov - a 28 year old immigrant from Uzbekistan.

On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) an Islamist gunman attacked the Reina nightclub in Istanbul, Turkey. This recreation of the Pulse nightclub attack killed 39.

The attack was followed by several weeks of intense speculation other whether he was a Tajik or even a Uighur from China's Xinjiang Province. After Erdogan decided he'd got his money's worth  it was confirmed that Abdulkadir Masharipov was in fact from Uzbekistan.

During the Syrians Abu Duhur Air Base operation a senior member of the Syrian government - Bouthaina Shaaban - visited China on November 25th 2017 (25/11/17). During the visit China congratulated Syria on its work combating the TiP and offered support against what China sees as a mutual enemy.

On November 28th 2017 (28/11/17) Russia started a rumour that China had deployed Special Operations Forces (SOF's) - specifically the Night Tigers and the Siberian Tigers - to Syria to battle the TiP. If true this would be the first combat deployment by China since the Korean War of the 1950's.

However it is worth pointing out that this rumour has circulated before and found to be untrue. Also there is currently a degree of tension between Russia and China over Syria.

The mantra from western nations has long been; "There is no military solution in Syria!"

Meanwhile Russia, China and Iran are jostling over how best to profit from the military solution that is clearly working. Around the time of the Chinese SOF's rumour Russia secured an exclusive reconstruction contract at China's expense.

Whatever the truth of the rumours Shaaban's visit to China spelled extremely bad news for the TiP in Syria.

November 30th 2017 (30/11/17) saw intense and coordinated strikes against their command and control structures. Two TiP headquarters were wiped out in Jisr al-Shugour around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Idlib City. TiP headquarters were also destroyed in Khirbet al-Jawz and Bedama.

There have also been a number of unclaimed bomb attacks in and around Idlib City. For example of January 8th 2018 (8/1/18) the headquarters of a Chechen group Soldiers of the Caucasus/Ajnad al-Kavkaz mysteriously blew up in the Thawra district.

While the Syrians were conducting their Abu Duhur Air Base operation Tahrir al-Sham attempted to continue their offensive at Abu Dali. With the Syrians focus elsewhere Tahrir al-Sham managed to capture the villages of Oum Turikiyah, Balil and Tell Oum Khazim all south of Abu Dali on November 6th 2017 (6/11/17).

However on November 23rd 2017 (23/11/17) the Syrians Galilee Brigade joined the Abu Duhur Air Base operation. They were quickly able to secure control of the main highway running to the airbase. This forced Tahrir al-Sham to abandon their Abu Dali offensive and throw their full resources into an effort to resist the Syrian advance on November 29th 2017 (29/11/17).

However Tahrir al-Sham were unable to halt the Syrians advance. On December 12th (12/12/17) they liberated the strategically important Zahraa Hill. On December 18th 2017 (18/12/17) they liberated Syriatel and Khinizir Hills. On December 19th 2017 (19/12/17) they liberated Aghad Hill.

On December 20th 2017 (20/12/17) Syria's elite Tiger Force joined the Abu Duhur Air Base operation fresh from their successes against ISIL in the Euphrates River Basin. This decisively tipped the balance of fighting in the Syrians favour.

On December 28th 2017 (28/12/17) they liberated Ward Hill and the surrounding villages. On January 4th 2018 (4/1/18) the Syrians reached the villages directly surrounding Abu Duhur Airbase.

By this time Tahrir al-Sham were in full collapse. They opened their armouries so they could force civilians to fight for them against the Syrians. On January 5th 2018 (5/1/18) they opened their central prison in Idlib City to force their captives to fight the Syrians.

On January 9th 2018 (9/1/18) Tahrir al-Sham retreated en mass from the entire Hass Plateau. This vast 2,100kmsq (1,260 milesq) area begins around 15km (10 miles) south of Aleppo City and 60km (35 miles) east of Idlib City.

On January 10th 2018 (10/1/18) the Syrians entered Abu Duhur Airbase. By January 20th (20/1/18) they had fully liberated and secured it.

To make matters worse for Tahrir al-Sham the Syrians have also been able to reclaim the territory lost during Tahrir al-Sham's Abu Dali offensive. On December 21st 2017 (21/12/17) Abu Dali itself was liberated. The Syrians then pressed on to liberate areas north of Abu Dali such as Moushfra on December 28th (28/12/17).

The Syrians have also been able liberate Tahrir al-Sham held villages close to the now infamous town of Khan Sheikhoun. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north of Hama City and around 55km (30 miles) south of Idlib City.

At around 18:35 on 22/1/18 (UK date) I will have to check & tidy this after dinner.

Edited at around 19:35 on 22/1/18 (UK date) to tidy and add;

As you would expect the collapse of his Army of Conquest in both the Hama and Sudetenland Astana Zones has left Erdogan even more furious than usual.

Frustratingly I will have to address his response in more detail at a later date. However the abridged version is;

January 6th 2018 (6/1/18) - Erdogan provides Tahrir al-Sham with satellite navigation capability to allow them to attack the Russian Air Base at Khmeimim in Syria's Latakia Province with true drones. It is likely Turkey itself was supplied with that capability by the US through NATO.

January 10th 2018 (10/1/18) - Erdogan summons Russian and Iranian Ambassadors to demand that operations in the Hama and Sudetenland Astana Zones cease immediately.

January 11th 2018 (11/1/18) - Erdogan threatens to attack SDF controlled Afrin Canton unless operations in Hama and the Sudetenland cease immediately. The threat being that he will attack Russian troops within Afrin Canton as part of the Astana Process.

January 13th 2018 (13/1/18) - US announces intention to re-task SDF from a combat force to a border security force. Restricting its ability to conduct offensive military operations.

January 16th 2018 (16/1/18) - Erdogan attaches his threat to attack Afrin Canton to US announcement of reduction of SDF's offensive capabilities. The intention being to disguise the threat already made to Russia and dazzle the US by equating issue to President Trump's legitimate need to secure the US' southern border.

January 19th 2018 (19/1/18) - Russia simply withdraws its forces from Afrin Canton while operations in Hama and the Sudetenland continue.

January 20th 2018 (20/1/18) - Erdogan launches attack on Afrin Canton. US Democrats shutdown US government including military spending and organise mass protests over the issue of Trump's legitimate need to secure US border.

20:00 on 22/1/18 (UK date). 

Edited at around 16:35 on 25/1/18 (UK date) to correct;

Al Qaeda believe that Turkistan is made up of China's Xinjiang Province along with parts of Mongolia and
Kyrgyzstan. Erdogan spent weeks speculating that the Reina attacker was Kyrgz before confirming he was Uzbek attack with the support of Chinese Uyghurs.

16:40 on 25/1/18 (UK date).

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status95532415968435404