Operation Featherweight: Month 43, Week 2, Day 2.

Since the spring of 2017 Syrian forces have been steadily liberating the centre of the country from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

In early June 2017 the Syrians liberated the town of al-Tanf. This is located directly on the Syria/Iraq border. Its liberation marked the completion of a 280km (170 mile) advance east from the Syrian capital Damascus across the centre of the country.

In August 2017 the Syrians northern and southern advances converged on the town of as-Suknah. This sits around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra and around 200km (120 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq.

From as-Suknah the Syrians proceeded to liberate all of the main population centres on the south bank of the Euphrates River. This included the cities of Deir-ez-Zour and Mayadin along with the towns of Madan and Abu Kamal/Al-Bukamal.

On December 5th (5/12/17) the Syrians liberated Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. These all sit in an roughly 65kmsq (40 milesq) area between Mayadin and Abu Kamal. The liberation of this area allowed the Syrians to declare that the entire southern bank of the Euphrates had been liberated from ISIL.

What has made this Syrian anti-ISIL operation possible is what is known as the; "Astana Zones Agreement."

In December 2016 the Aleppo City - the capital of Aleppo Province was liberated by the Syrians. This led to the establishment of the Astana Process on Syria.

Taking its name from Astana - the capital city of Kazakhstan - where the majority of its meetings are held this process allows Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran to meet periodically to discuss the conflict.

At its first meeting held in Moscow, Russia on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the Astana Process drew up a ceasefire agreement which has gone on to be known as the Astana Ceasefire.

The Astana Ceasefire has always been clear that it does not apply to ISIL nor does it apply to Al Qaeda whatever name they happen to be using. At the insistence of Turkey the Astana Ceasefire also has never applied to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The problem arises though that aside from ISIL the main militant force operating within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is made up a numerous factions;

One of the largest factions with the Army of Conquest is the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF). They are the Syrian wing of The Base/Al Qaeda (AQ).

The second largest faction within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.

Another significant faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is formed of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves.

Another influential but fortunately small faction within the Army of Conquest is the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are an extreme Islamist group which in the past has carried out genocide and executed members of ISIL for not being extreme enough in their pursuit of the extermination of racial and religious minorities.

Worryingly within the Astana Process the Army of Islam are recognised as the representative of the 'moderate' opposition to the Syrian government.

The Army of Conquest coalition also includes a large number of small fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). They include a wide variety of ideologies ranging from the secular to the extreme Islamist.

Therefore it has long been subject to debate whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to all members of the Army of Conquest except for Al Qaeda or whether it doesn't apply to the Army of Conquest as a whole due to Al Qaeda's membership of the coalition.

Initially attempts were made to resolve this question by simply attempting to distance Jabhat al-Nusra and by extension the Army of Conquest from Al Qaeda. This led to Jabhat al-Nusra announcing it had broken ties with Al Qaeda and changing its name numerous times. In July 2017 they settled on the name; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Fortunately nobody fell for these rebranding attempts. Whatever name they are using be it Jabhat al-Nusra or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham the group is recognised as Al Qaeda in Syria.

At the fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17) a new approach was taken. Rather than attempting to apply the Astana Ceasefire to specific groups it would be applied to geographic areas where ISIL are not considered active. This led to the creation of what are termed the; "Astana Zones."

Four of these what are termed "Astana Zones" were created.

One was in the north of the country in Idlib Province centred around Idlib City. This area had already being designated; "The Sudetenland." In reference to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's desire to annex it as part of his new Ottoman Empire. Exactly like Adolf Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia in 1938.

Another two Astana Zones were created in central Syria. In and around Homs Province and in and around the capital Damascus. Particularly the East Ghouta suburb.

The fourth Astana Zone was created in southern Syria. In Deraa and Quneitra Provinces which border Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights.

As is often the case with this type agreement different parties have agreed from their own different reasons.

For example the Syrians and the Russians were keen to agree because it would free up resources to allow them to fight ISIL.

Turkey has agreed because they see it as an opportunity to invade and annex the Sudetenland. As with Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia the hope being this could be done under the pretence of a humanitarian intervention to enforce the ceasefire.

The one zone that everybody could agree upon is the southern zone close to the Golan Heights. Fighting in this area has periodically led to stray fire landing in Israel and Israel responding.

With all parties in the Syria conflict being anti-Semitic to varying degrees absolutely no-one wants Israel entering the conflict on their side. As a result they have all been happy to reduce the risk of this happening.

Since that fifth round of Astana meetings the Army of Conquest have grown increasingly frustrated by the process.

Things really boiled over at the seventh round of Astana meetings which took place on October 30th (30/10/17) and October 31st (31/10/17). This resulted in not a single one of the Army of Conquest's long list of demands being met.

Following that seventh round of Astana meetings Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam established the; "Army of Mohammad Operations Room" military force. Within the Astana Process the Army of Conquest are represented by the leader of the Army of Islam - Mohammad Alloush.

The Army of Mohammad then violated the Astana Zones agreement by attacking Syrian forces in two of the zones.

Within the southern zone they launched the; "Break the Chains of Harmon" operation on November 3rd 2017 (3/11/17). The objective of this operation was to advance from an area known as the; "Beit Jinn Pocket" to the nearby Druze town of Hadar.

The Beit Jinn Pocket sits around 30km (15 miles) south-west of the West Ghouta suburb of Damascus. The town of Hadar sits around 5km (3 miles) beyond the Beit Jinn Pocket.

Both of them sit in the Syrian Golan Heights. The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) peacekeeping zone actually runs through Hadar and parts of the Beit Jinn Pocket.

The Druze are followers of an ancient and complex religion. Rather like followers of the Yezidi religion groups such as ISIL, Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam view the Druze as devil worshippers. The lowest of the low, worse even than Jews, who must be exterminated.

As a religious rather than an ethnic group the Druze are not limited to any particular country. However the majority of them tend to live in Lebanon, Syria and Israel.

In 1967 Syria and Israel went to war resulting in Israel capturing the Golan Heights area which has a high Druze population. As a result there are extremely close family links between Syrian Druze and Israeli Druze.

Amongst the worst atrocities committed by the Army of Islam was a series of massacres in Druze areas - particularly the village of Qalb Lawza - in the summer of 2015. This genocide sent large numbers of Syrian Druze fleeing to safety in Israel and triggered large scale protest and social unrest amongst Israel's Druze population.

In response to the threat to the town of Hadar Israel took the rare step on November 4th 2017 (4/11/17) of saying that it would intervene directly to prevent the Army of Mohammad conducting genocide. 

Therefore the objectives of the Breaking the Chains of Harmon operation were threefold;

To exert pressure on the Astana Process by undermining the one Astana Zone that all parties agreed upon.

Force Israel to enter the conflict in opposition to the Army of Conquest. This would allow them to portray the Syrians as allies of the hated Jews boosting support for the Army of Conquest's cause.

Undermine the Syrians anti-ISIL operation by forcing them to fight multiple enemies on multiple fronts.

In the end Israel allowed Syrian Druze militias to transit through Israeli territory in order to out manoeuvre the Army of Mohammad. This resulted in the Breaking the Chains of Harmon to be completely halted by November 6th 2017 (6/11/17).

On November 16th 2017 (16/11/17) the Army of Mohammad launched a fresh offensive in the southern Astana Zone. This time targeting Syrian forces directly by shelling them at the town of Oum Bashar.

The Syrians immediately responded by shelling the Army of Mohammad at Kafr Hawr, Mazra at Beit Jinn and Beit Jinn itself. The three main towns within the Beit Jinn Pocket. As has become a pattern the Army of Mohammad responded to people standing up to them by falsely accusing the Syrians of using chemical weapons.

With the southern Astana Zone no longer being in place the Syrians pressed ahead with a counter offensive. On November 20th 2017 (20/11/17) they liberated Kafr Hawr and the strategically important surrounding hills.

On November 30th 2017 (30/11/17) the Syrians liberated the strategically important Bardiyah Hill just to the south of the Beit Jinn. On December 5th 2017 (5/12/17) they liberated Shibab Hill in the north-east of the Beit Jinn Pocket.

On December 11th 2017 (11/12/17) the Syrians liberated Maqtoul and Madiwar Hills. On December 15th (15/12/17) they liberated Bayda Hill giving them fire control over the town of Maghar al-Mir.

The Army of Mohammad's only response to this Syrian counter-offensive was an attempt to recapture Bardiyah Hill on December 8th 2017 (8/12/17). This failed the same day.

On December 27th 2017 (27/12/17) the Army of Mohammad offered the Syrians their surrender. On December 29th 2017 (29/12/17) that surrender was accepted.

A deal was agreed for Al Qaeda members of the Army of Mohammad to be transferred to the northern Astana Zone and for Army of Islam members to be transferred to Deraa City - the capital of Deraa Province.

As a result the Beit Jinn Pocket and much of the southern Astana Zone was completely liberated by the Syrians.

In preparation for the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process the Army of Islam jacked up food prices in across the central Astana Zone. Particularly within the East Ghouta suburb where the Army of Islam are primarily based.

This meant that although there was ample food in the shops the poorer residents could not afford to buy it and a small number began to starve to death. The Army of Islam then took photographs of their victims - particularly the photogenic babies - and circulated them on the Internet.

The intention being to force international aid agencies such as the UN and the Red Cross/Crescent to deliver more food aid. Which the Army of Islam would then sell at a massively inflated price using the proceeds to fund more terror attacks.

Following the the seventh round of Astana meetings the newly formed Army of Mohammad launched an offensive against the Syrians in the central Astana Zone named; "They Were Wronged." On November 16th 2017 (16/11/17) Ahrar al-Sham and the Al-Rahman Legion/Faylaq al-Rahman joined the operation.

Primarily the They Were Wronged offensive has targeted on the Harasta Armoured Vehicle (HAV) Base. This is located within East Ghouta between the Harasta and Irbeen neighbourhoods.

However it has also featured shelling of areas of Damascus itself including Sabaa Bahrat and Abbasiyen Squares. On November 21st 2017 (21/11/17) the Fayhaa Sports Centre was particularly hard hit wounding 50 and killing two members of Syria's national Judo team.

As with the Breaking the Chains of Harmon offensive the They Were Wronged offensive was intended to exert pressure on the Astana Process by blowing apart the central Astana Zone. It was also intended to undermine the Syrians anti-ISIL operation and assist the offensive in the southern Astana Zone by forcing the Syrians to fight multiple enemies on multiple fronts.

Unlike in the southern Astana Zone the Army of Mohammad's They Were Wronged offensive has not triggered a fullscale Syrian counter-offensive.

Instead the Syrians have opted to merely suppress the Army of Mohammad through increase air and artillery strikes. They have though mounted limited ground incursions. Most notably into the Jobar neighbourhood on November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) and the Ayn Tarma district on December 5th 2017 (5/12/17).

As a result despite an marked increase in fighting there have been no real gains made by either side.

On November 17th 2017 (17/11/17) the Army of Mohammad claimed they'd captured part of the HAV Base. However by November 20th 2017 (20/11/17) the Syrians had regained full control of the base killing a senior Faylaq al-Rahman commander in the process.

Likewise on January 3rd 2018 (3/1/18) the Army of Mohammad claimed to have besieged and then captured the HAV Base. However on January 4th 2018 (4/1/18) the Syrians were able to move reinforcements to the base showing that it had neither been besieged nor captured.

On December 27th 2017 (27/12/17) a deal was reached to evacuate 500 civil ans from the fighting in East Ghouta. However on December 29th 2017 (29/12/17) the Army of Mohammad launched a fresh assault on the HAV Base ending the ceasefire with just 29 of the evacuations having taken place.

As the Breaking the Chains of Harmon offensive has been completely defeated and the They Were Wronged offensive has stalled the Army of Conquest have done what they always do when they're losing;

Accused the Syrians of committing atrocities and demand the United Nations (UN) and the Astana Parties stopped the Syrians shooting back at them.

17:10 on 17/1/18 (UK date).