Hurricane Irma Has Turned.

Since Tuesday (5/9/17) Hurricane Irma has been barrelling its way through the Caribbean towards the south-eastern United States.

On Wednesday (6/9/17) I said that the key day would be Friday (8/9/17). This is when Irma would strike Cuba forcing it to turn.

Hurricane Irma actually struck Cuba today only passing over it in the last few hours. However we now have a much clearer idea of the path it will take as it reaches the US.

As with other hurricanes in the region Irma is actually being monitored by two organisations working closely together. The US' own National Hurricane Centre (NHC) and the European Union's (EU) Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC).

The American longterm forecast has predicted that Irma will turn to the east cutting across the US state of Florida before travelling on through the US States of North and South Carolina before heading back out across the Atlantic Ocean.

The European longterm forecast has predicted that Irma will turn to the west largely missing Florida before heading into the Gulf of Mexico towards the US States of Alabama, Louisiana and Texas.

Hurricane Irma is currently leaning towards the European model but seems to have decided to split the difference.

The centre or "Eye" of the hurricane will make landfall in the Florida keys and then travel up the west coast of the state through Tampa. It will then travel up through Georgia and Alabama. As a Tropical Storm it may even make it as far as Illinois. They're more used to dealing with snow storms.

However this does not mean that people in the centre of Florida or even on the east coast will escape unscathed. Irma is a massive hurricane. It is about the same size as the US State of Texas or the nation state of France.

This means that when the eye of the hurricane is over Tampa, Florida the town of Mobile, Alabama will be getting struck by the edges of Irma.

Coming into contact with the Turks & Caicos islands on Friday (8/9/17) Irma dipped in power from Category 5 to Category 4. However as it passed back over open water it picked up energy and recovered to a Category 5.

As it has come into contact with Cuba Irma again dropped to Category 4. However again as it crosses open water it is expected to pick up energy and return to Category 5 as it reaches Florida.

Through its contact with both Turks & Caicos and Cuba Irma has also slowed from around 25kmph (16mph) to 19kmph (12mph).

That means it will take as long to pass over Florida as it would take you to drive from one end of Florida to the other or across Texas at a constant speed of 12mph.

This is all extremely bad news for people who remain in Florida. Particularly those who are trying to ride out the storm in the southern part of the state.

Despite their best efforts it seems inevitable that local state authorities will be overwhelmed by Irma. It is simply far too powerful a storm. As a result they will need rescue and relief from the rest of the US.

That support will have to come from the north of Florida. However there will be a massive hurricane sitting between the people of Florida and that help. This means that they will have to wait for potentially a very long time for the storm to pass making it possible for help to be sent.

Based on the model of Irma making landfall in southern Florida at around 09:00GMT (05:00 local) on Sunday (10/9/17) you're talking about it being 14:0GMT (10:00) local on Monday (11/9/17) before the rescue operation can even begin. That's a gap of what will be 35 very long hours.

One option would be to sail an aircraft carrier from the US' Atlantic fleet to south Florida to act as a bridgehead for the recovery effort. However even if that set sail now it still wouldn't arrive until late on Monday (11/9/17) or early on Tuesday (12/9/17).

I am also aware that long before it has arrived in the US Irma has done catastrophic damage across a number of Caribbean islands. They're talking about 95% destruction on Barbuda and a complete breakdown of law & order and widespread, armed looting on Dutch St Maaten.

What I would normally do in this situation is put pressure on the US to allow the cargo terminal at Miami International Airport into a distribution hub for international aid. I would then encourage NATO nations and any other volunteers to use their military aircraft to distribute that aid to where it is needed.

At this point I'm not even sure there's going to be a Miami International Airport at this time tomorrow.

15:40 on 9/9/17 (UK date)