Operation Featherweight: Month 39, Week 1, Day 5.

At the end of May 2017 the Syrians were forced to stop fighting Al Qaeda.

Quite why anyone would want to ban the Syrians from fighting Al Qaeda is an utter mystery to me.

However under former President Barack Obama this is something the US has been trying to achieve for the past six years. This effort included imposing sanctions not only on the Syrians but also on Russia.

At the same time the US busied itself by creating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group out of the much smaller and largely irrelevant Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) group.

If there has been one advantage of the ban on the Syrians fighting Al Qaeda it is that it has allowed them to focus all their efforts on fighting ISIL.

With the support of Russia the Syrians have been highly effective in that task. Since the end of May they have driven ISIL out of almost the entire centre of the country from north to south. On September 5th (5/9/17) they were able to reach the city of Deir-ez-Zour.

Deir-ez-Zour City is the capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province. It sits on the Euphrates River roughly 190km (115 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey and roughly 100km (60 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq.

The Syrians arrival at Deir-ez-Zour City is bad news for the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

The Euphrates River really marks the southern boundary of a vast area of north-east Syria designated; "Shangri-La." This is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) whom - under much pressure - CJTFOIR belatedly decided to support.

However it has always been difficult for the SDF to liberate Deir-ez-Zour City. Although they lost control of much of the city in March 2014 the Syrians were never fully forced out. They have always managed to maintain a presence in two pockets to the south-west and south-east of Dier-ez-Zour.

Foreign military intervention in Syria is authorised under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2170 (2014). This is issued under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. It applies only to action against ISIL, Al Qaeda or their allies.

It expressly forbids action being taken against the Syrians themselves or any other group acting against ISIL or Al Qaeda.

As such for CJTFOIR or any other foreign actor to take action to remove the Syrians from Deir-ez-Zour would be an act of wholly illegal, aggressive war. Suggesting that CJTFOIR would commit an illegal act of war to aid groups that are trying to destroy them is utterly insane.

In fact under the Geneva Conventions if any member of CJTFOIR or any other foreign military even suggests it their chain of command is obligated to immediately remove them from duty and instigate disciplinary proceedings.

In January 2017 ISIL launched an offensive of their own to finally expel the Syrians from all of Deir-ez-Zour City.

This had me quietly cheering ISIL on. If they managed to fully remove the Syrians from the city the SDF backed by CJTFOIR could then quite easily and quite legally move into liberate all of Deir-ez-Zour from ISIL. Unfortunately the Syrians launched a counter-offensive and by April 2017 ISIL's efforts had failed.

The fact that the SDF and CJTFOIR cannot capture Deir-ez-Zour City from the Syrians however does not mean that they cannot liberate the rest of Deir-ez-Zour Province from ISIL. This will involve them advancing from the Madan-Shaddadi line some 160km (95 miles) across the Khabur River basin to the Syria/Iraq border.

This would fully establish Shangri-La as a properly bordered zone and prevent the Syrians advancing any further than Deir-ez-Zour City. It would also give the SDF control of the bulk of Syria's oil fields. By denying the Syrians control of those oil fields the SDF would force the Syrians to negotiate a solution to the conflict with them.

CJTFOIR's in particular response to the Syrians shift in focus has been flat-footed and incompetent.

On June 6th (6/6/17) CJTFOIR forced the SDF to launch an operation against Raqqa City located some 130km (80 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City along the Euphrates River. The strategic thinking behind this operation seemed limited to the fact that all the way back in November 2016 Obama panicked and blurted out; "The SDF will liberate Raqqa!"

I am very keen to see the SDF liberate Raqqa City and hope to soon give you another update on their progress. However there is no point taking control of a city or other area if you do not have the ability to sustain control of that area.

By starting the Raqqa City operation after the Syrians had shifted their focus the SDF forced themselves to tie up the bulk of their most effective forces in the battle for the city. This meant that those forces could not then be used to advance across the Khabur basin to the border with Iraq. That gave the Syrians a massive advantage in reaching that area first.

On August (26/8/17) CJTFOIR again sort of panicked and announced the SDF would be launching a Deir-ez-Zour operation of its own. After a mad scramble CJTFOIR got the SDF to actually launch that operation on September 9th (9/9/17) - four days after the Syrians broke the siege on Deir-ez-Zour City.

Obviously in launching this operation designated; "Cizre Storm" neither the SDF nor CJTFOIR could fully announce their intentions. To do so would tip off ISIL and allow them to take better counter measures.

Likewise doing so would alert the Syrians to the plan. This would allow them to delay the full liberation of Deir-ez-Zour City in favour of liberating the Khobar basin before the SDF.

So Cizre Storm was announced as an operation to liberate Deir-ez-Zour. With no clarity offered as to whether that meant city of province.

To their credit I think CJTFOIR always knew that the true objective of Cizre Storm was the Khobar basin. However the force they deployed to the task was wholly inappropriate and insufficient.

The SDF is a coalition of Syrian Kurdish forces known as the People's Protection Units (YPG) and Syrian Christian forces known as the Syriac Military Council (MFS). It also includes various Turkmen and Arab forces including both tribal forces and fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The element of the SDF tasked with the Cizre Storm operation is the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council. This is largely made up of FSA fragments from Deir-ez-Zour City who now call themselves the "Syrian Elite Forces (SEF)" - much to the amusement of the rest of the SDF and any other fighting force in the world ever.

Between 2011 and 2014 what is now known as the SEF fought alongside ISIL against the Syrians in Deir-ez-Zour City. However in 2014 they were then expelled from the city by ISIL forcing them to seek sanctuary from Syria's Kurds.

The SEF's dispute with ISIL has never been ideological. The two Sunni-Arab groups simply fell out over the distribution of power and spoils.

Prior to being accepted into the SDF and sent on the Cizre Storm operation the SDF have been subjected to absolutely no vetting process. The US will claim that they've been vetted but the fact the SDF keeps getting attacked with weapons the US gave to vetted groups who've since joined ISIL should make it clear that the US vetting process is wholly insufficient.

The Cizre Storm operation initially went quite well with the SEF advancing as far as the industrial outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City by September 13th (13/9/17). However they then stopped dead refusing to move until they were given permission to again re-join ISIL in fighting the Syrians within the city.

This was all very frustrating for the Russians who have probably been better friends to the SDF than CJTFOIR have.

For example in November 2016 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent forces to attack the SDF at the town of Manbij. This sits on the western boundary of Shangri-La.

CJTFOIR's response to this was to do, well, Sh*t All. However the Russians bombed Erdogan's forces bringing the attacks to a temporary halt.

In March 2017 Erdogan again launched sustained attacks on the western boundary of Shangri-La. Again CJTFOIR did sh*t all. The Russians however deployed their forces between Erdogan's forces and the SDF bringing the attacks to an end.

For now at least the SDF also control a small area in the north-west of Syria designated the; "Afrin Canton." Erdogan's forces have been attacking the SDF on Afrin Canton's eastern boundary pretty much continuously since August 2016. I think you can guess what CJTFOIR have done about this.

The Russians though have again put their troops in harms way to protect the SDF. In early September 2017 they established another buffer-zone between Erdogan's forces and the SDF at the eastern boundary of Afrin Canton.

So while they probably don't appreciate me telling the Syrians this the Russians have actually been keen for the SDF to take control of the Khobar basin including the oil fields. They even diverted the Syrians into fully clearing the areas south of Deir-ez-Zour City rather than entering the city itself or crossing the Euphrates.

Unfortunately while the Russians have been doing that the SDF and CJTFOIR have singularly failed to either eliminate or bring under control their rogue elements. On September 18th (18/9/17) the SEF were still sitting in the industrial outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City demanding the right to re-join ISIL.

So the Russians decided to give the SDF and CJTFOIR a little nudge. They bombed SDF positions to the north of Deir-ez-Zour in the hope that rather like pinball the contact would drive them towards the Khobar basin. No SDF fighters were killed in this nudge.

Unfortunately the US seems to have started to believe all the lies its told about Russia over the years. So rather than taking the hint CJTFOIR went on some weird rant about how despite all the evidence to the contrary they would defend the SDF.

Rather than containing the SEF CJTFOIR's actions emboldened them. On Tuesday (19/9/17) they opened fire on Syrian and Russian positions thinking CJTFOIR would finally swoop in to act as ISIL's airforce.

At this point the Russians and I think everyone else just got f*cked off with it. They allowed the Syrians to cross the Euphrates to liberated the al-Jaffah district in the south-east of Deir-ez-Zour city. This puts the Syrians on a path towards the Khobar cutting off any chance of a SDF advance.

After pretty much every nation queueing up to kick them in the shins at the opening of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) CJTFOIR finally got the message very late on Tuesday (19/9/19) evening. On Wednesday (20/9/17) the SDF started very slowly advancing from Deir-ez-Zour City towards the Khobar basin.

However based on the latest information I have available the SDF have still not made much progress. They've advanced probably a full 2km (1.2 miles) east of the industrial zone putting them about 30km (18 miles) from the Khobar River. The Syrians are closing fast being probably 3km (1.8 miles) from cutting them off.

I think it's pretty clear then there needs to be a dramatic change with CJTFOIR's leadership personnel.

If US Generals can't pick up on something that I with no formal military training or experience can see as obvious they're clearly a liability.

They should resign to save us the embarrassment of having to fire them.

15:55 on 22/9/17 (UK date).