Hurricanes Irma & Jose: Disaster Relief.

Since Tuesday (5/9/17) Hurricane Irma has been barrelling its way through the Caribbean towards the south-eastern United States.

Technically Hurricane Irma has not yet made landfall within the US. That will only occur when 50% of the centre of the hurricane - the "Eye" - sits over land for a sustained period. However the wall of extremely high winds surrounding the Eye - the "Eye Wall" - arrived in Florida's South Keys in the last two hours or so.

On its journey to the US Hurricane Irma has already torn through some nine Caribbean islands. As the maximum Category 5 storm it has left massive destruction in its wake. Coming hot on the heels of Hurricane Irma there is Hurricane Jose. As a Category 4 storm this is likely to do almost as much damage again.

Up until now I have avoided talking about the destruction caused by Hurricane Irma until it reaches the US.

That is because the US is by far the most powerful actor in the region. Therefore the amount of damage that Irma does to the US will affect the type and scale of the relief operation that can be mounted in the Caribbean islands. Obviously the American government's first priority is to the American people.

Also I continue to be extremely busy with the current fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in both Iraq and Syria.

In July the Iraqi city of Mosul was liberated from ISIL. This prompted me to go into a long discussion about the mistakes that had been made during the operation and the steps that needed to be taken to help the city recover from the battle.

During that discussion I said that it didn't really matter whether the destruction had been caused by a war or by a natural disaster. The steps towards recovery were exactly the same. I stand by that statement.

As if to prove my point on Saturday (9/9/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) launched a new offensive against ISIL in Syria. This has been codenamed; "Cizre Storm." Because that is exactly what the SDF plan to bring down on their enemies.

It must be said though that looking at the destruction caused by Hurricane Irma the scale of the task almost makes me want to through up.

Hurricane Irma has caused the equivalent of something 20 Mosuls all of which need to be dealt with at the same time. They are spread across 12 main landmasses covered by at least 10 national and sub-national jurisdictions.

Despite the complexity of the task though the objectives and priorities remain broadly the same; 

Evacuation: Really the only task that can be undertaken before the disaster strikes the first priority is identify the areas that are at risk and evacuating people from those areas to areas where they are at less risk.

During the Mosul operation this was something I was extremely critical of. They had no evacuation plan instead encouraging people to stay in the areas where they were at risk.

When it comes to natural disasters this task is actually much harder than it is in a war. In a war you can send in spies and listen to their communications to work out what your enemy's plan is and react accordingly.

Natural disasters like hurricanes do not have plans so you're left with no firm idea of which areas are at risk. With Earthquakes you get absolutely no warning whatsoever.

Also in a war if your enemy is threatening an area you really don't want threatened you can shoot at and drop bombs on them forcing them to stop. You cannot do that with hurricanes.

However with Hurricane Irma reaching America some local residents have grouped together to shoot at the hurricane in an effort to scare it away. This has not worked and the police have asked them to stop.

Despite the difficulty in predicting which areas need to be evacuated the US has been highly successful in this task.

From the moment its been clear Hurricane Irma was heading for Florida they have been issuing early evacuation orders and placing everyone on warning that they may need to be evacuate. This has led to an orderly evacuation away from the areas in most danger.

Sadly this is not a luxury available to the Caribbean islands.

This storm has been so big that as Irma's Eye has passed over many of the Caribbean island they've been clearly visible from space in the calm at the centre of the storm. With just the Eye being able to utterly consume their islands the hurricane itself has certainly overwhelmed them.

This has left them with no option to evacuate the areas at risk. All they can do is move people away from the coastal areas most a risk of the lethal storm surge to the high ground at the centre of the island. That high ground itself is more vulnerable to the hurricane winds. 

Rescue: Once the storm has passed you need to rescue the people who have become trapped despite the evacuation efforts.

Particularly in flooded areas you will need specialist vehicles such as boats, helicopters and amphibious vehicles. Many of those trapped will also be injured meaning that they need immediate medical attention.

As with clearing unexploded munitions from Mosul it is hard to say how you should prioritise rescue efforts. Therefore the first objective is really to identify and locate all those who need rescue so you can introduce some sort of triage system to rescue those in most need first.

Personally I think there is no obligation to rescue people who have refused to comply with mandatory evacuation orders particularly if transport has been provided to allow them to comply.

They should certainly be given a much lower priority than people who have been evacuated to areas that have been unexpectedly overwhelmed.

Restoring Basic Services: The three priorities people need to live are water, food and shelter. In that order.

However in order to provide those things to a large number of people there are a number of other services that need to be provided. So rather than providing a numeric list to be worked through in order here I'm providing a list of things that all need to be done at the same time. 

Transport & Communication: In order to do anything you have to be able to move around.

Therefore priority needs to be given to opening physical communication routes such as roads by clearing them from debris. For routes that can't be cleared because for example they're covered in floodwater alternative means of transport needs to be supplied in the form of boats, helicopters and amphibious vehicles.

In order to keep those vehicles running you need to keep them supplied with fuel.

Transport and Communication is a particular challenge for island states. In response to Hurricane Harvey a big American brewer shut down beer production in all its factories and switched them to producing canned drinking water. In preparation for Hurricane Irma the American supermarket chain Target diverted almost all of its nationwide stock of bottled drinking water to Florida.

Small island states do not have this option. Everything they use be it food, water, fuel or building supplies has to be imported from abroad. That means the main priority has to be getting air and sea ports functioning again so fresh supplies can be brought in.

Back in April the US launched missile strikes against Shayrat airbase in Syria. US President Trump received some criticism for not using those missiles to crater the runways at the airbase. Trump's response was that the Syrian military like most militarys has specialist teams to get airbases up and running within hours of an attack.

Those specialist teams are also extremely useful when an airport has been destroyed by a natural disaster rather than a missile strike.

Opening particularly airports also allows you to evacuate foreigner from the islands. This might look like rich tourists abandoning poor nations but it is actually relieving the pressure on local services by making those foreigners someone else's problem.

As with outside of a disaster zone you can save time and relieve pressure on physical transport links by establishing and reestablishing telecommunication links like telephones and the Internet. This allows you to communicate with areas without having to physically travel to them.

Security: In order to get anything done you not only need to be able to move around you need to be able to move around without your equipment being stolen or you being attacked and possibly killed.

Sadly in life there are people who care for no-one but themselves. Looking at these hurricanes rather than seeing a disaster they will instead see and opportunity to take whatever they want from whomever they want.

This was a big problem in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina back in 2005. Rather than pulling together like communities did in Texas following Hurricane Harvey a significant number of New Orlean's residents decided to start shooting, raping and stealing from each other making the disaster much worse.

This has also started to happen in the Dutch administered part of Saint Maarten islands where there have been widespread instances of looting, murder and armed robbery.

Therefore steps need to be taken to protect the wider population and the relief efforts from this section of society. In St Maarten the Dutch have sent in combat troops because that is all that was available. Ideally though civilian police should be sent.

How exactly you deal with this hardcore of criminals is a much wider question about policing generally. However I think emergency legislation in most jurisdictions allow for curfews to be put in place and people to be locked up without charge until the time of immediate crisis has passed.

Beyond the hardcore of criminals natural disasters are extremely emotionally and physically stressful times. This can lead to a sort of mass panic setting in leading to otherwise law abiding people turning feral because they feel abandoned.

There is a disaster relief charity called; "Shelter Box." Their strategy is to take a plastic box and fill it with basic supplies such as water purification tablets, emergency food rations and basic tools. They also often include crayons and paper to keep young children amused and help them process any psychological trauma.

The thinking behind Shelter Box is that X-number of these boxes fit onto a pallet. X-number of pallets fit onto trucks, planes and helicopters. This means that a single box can quickly be delivered to every household within a disaster area.

Obviously different households are different sizes so need different longterm support. For example a 68 year old grandmother is more likely to need her heart medication than a colouring book.

However being able to quickly deliver some basic support to everyone stops them feeling like they've been abandoned and reassures them that help is coming. That helps to quell the panic and maintain order. 

Water: The absolute essential for life is water. In order to keep that water clean and safe to drink people's sewage and waste needs to be removed. Sadly in this type of disaster the bodies of the need to be quickly located, removed and safely disposed of before they can contaminate the water supply and otherwise spread disease.

Therefore one of the absolute priorities is to restore the area's water and sanitation systems as quickly as possible. However this can be an extremely complicated task with facilities often completely destroyed meaning that engineers and replacement parts need to be brought in. Often in the case of island states from very far away.

In the meantime it is important to provide alternative sources of drinking water. That can include water brought in from elsewhere and chemical tablets that can purify water on site. Particularly for small island states military warships can be extremely helpful. They often contain their own dedicated water purification plants to make drinking water out of waste water and sea water. 

Food: Alongside water people also need food to survive.

In these type of disaster situations it is extremely tempting to ship in vast amounts of food aid and simply hand it out. Although emergency food aid does have a role experience has shown that the widespread use of food aid simply undermines the local society causing developmental problems that can last for generations.

Therefore the priority is really to restore the local food distribution networks that existed before the disaster. In less technical terms that means getting the shops and markets open again.

In order for that to happen local merchants need to have premises to operate from, the ability to purchase stock and transport links to get that stock to their premises.

Apart from the work of opening transport links local authorities can help merchants do this by providing loan guarantees. This allows suppliers to give the merchants stock on credit safe in the knowledge that if they default the guarantor - which could be an aid agency - will step in to pay the bill.

Once you've got the shops open again you need to make sure that people can afford to shop in them.

This can mean setting temporary price controls to prevent profiteering and gouging. However that only works if you have personnel available to enforce the price controls.

In the event of a cash crunch aid agencies and governments can provide a ration voucher or electronic payment card system. This allows people the 'buy' supplies with vouchers the merchant then exchanges for cash.

Shelter: This is really a longterm recovery and reconstruction issue. However in the immediate term you need to bring in tents to provide people with basic shelter. With the Caribbean still being in the midst of hurricane season as things scale up it could be worth looking at bringing in metal shipping containers to provide more sturdy temporary homes. 

Electricity: Everything from lighting, refrigeration, telecommunications, water supplies and power tools for clearing debris require electricity. Therefore it is a priority to restore the electricity supply as quickly as possible.

In the interim it is essentially to bring in alternative electricity supplies such as batteries, solar panels, generators and fuel for those generators as quickly as possible.

Following the immediate Relief phase there are also the longer and more complex Recovery and Reconstruction phases.

However with Hurricane Irma still striking the US and Hurricane Jose still to strike the Caribbean I think we're going to be stuck in this immediate phase for a little while yet.

14:40 on 10/9/17 (UK date).