In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) seized control of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. Since then Mosul has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.
On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) and operation was launched to liberate Mosul.
This is a combined operation. It sees the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) taking the lead in liberating the city itself. The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias took responsibility for securing the areas surrounding the city. The US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - has been supporting all elements of the operation.
On January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) the eastern side of the city - sometimes known as; "The Left Bank" - was completely liberated from ISIL. On February 19th (19/2/17) a new phase of the operation was launched to liberate the areas of Mosul on the western side of the Tigris River. This is sometimes known as; "The Right Bank."
On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered the western side of Mosul itself. They did this on two axis;
To the south the Federal Police element of the ISF entered via the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani military base complex at the southern most tip of the city. They then proceeded to advance north to the Old City district of the city liberating neighbourhoods as they went.
To the south-west the Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) element of the ISF entered via the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city. They then advanced north-east towards the Old City district liberating neighbourhoods as they went.
By March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division had liberated the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood and the Mosul Railway station complex. Al-Moalimeen neighbourhood is the most eastern of the neighbourhoods that make up the New Mosul district of the city. Liberating it placed the Golden Division at the Rampart Walls road that make up the western boundary of the Old City district.
The Golden Division then changed direction and moved to liberate the Hay al-Yarmuk district. This sits to the west of the New Mosul district.
While the Golden Division were doing that the ISF's combined Rapid Reaction Force set about liberating the Qahib al-Ban neighbourhood. Sometimes shown on maps as the Hay as Sihhah district this sits directly north of the eastern side of the New Mosul district.
The Rapid Reaction Force succeeded in liberating the Qahib al-Ban neighbourhood on March 30th (30/3/17). On April 2nd (2/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Thawra neighbourhood. This sits directly north of the Qahib al-Ban neighbourhood.
On April 10th (10/4/17) the Golden Division completed the liberation of the Hay al-Yarmuk district. On April 20th (20/4/17) they completed the liberation of the al-Nasr neighbourhood. This sits directly west of the Yarmuk district on the western outskirts of the city.
This meant that as of April 20th (20/4/17) the ISF controlled everything south of a line running from the al-Nasr neighbourhood on the western outskirts through to the boundary with the Zanjili/Old City districts.
On the southern axis by March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police element of the ISF had succeeded in liberating the al-Tob neighbourhood which sits directly south of the Old City district. They had also liberated the Corniche area between the east of the Old City district and the Tigris River.
The Federal Police then proceeded to enter the Old City district on two axis. A southern axis heading north broadly along al-Shaziani Street and an eastern axis heading west broadly along Nineveh Street.
Their objective is the al-Nuri Mosque which sits just north of the junction between al-Shaziani and Nineveh Streets. It is where ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi gave one of his speeches declaring ISIL as a Caliphate back in 2014. Due to this significance to ISIL it appears to be where they have centred most of their forces.
It was always known that the Old City district would provide some of the toughest fighting of the entire operation to liberate Mosul. Due to its age it is a maze of extremely narrow streets and alleyways totally unsuited to modern warfare. As a result progress has been slow with gains coming metres/yards at a time as ISF snipers wait to pick-off ISIL snipers.
However by May 4th (4/5/17) the Federal Police's axis' had succeeded in converging on al-Nuri Mosque surrounding it on three sides. With the Federal Police liberating neighbourhoods as they advanced this placed them in control of roughly the southern 50% of the Old City district.
On May 4th (4/5/17) the ISF opened a third axis in the battle to liberate Mosul. This was formed by the 9th Armoured division and combined Rapid Reaction Force elements of the ISF. This northern axis entered Mosul at the Musaharrifah district on the outskirts of Mosul on the banks of the Tigris.
On May 6th (6/5/17) this northern axis had entered the Hay 17 Tammuz district - the most northern of Mosul's western districts. It then proceeded to advance rapidly.
However this northern axis' first objective does not seem to have been to liberate Mosul's northern districts. Instead it seems to have been to secure the area between the Tigris River and the eastern districts of Mosul. This includes parts of those eastern districts such as 17 Tammuz along with the flood meadow/marshland area.
Meanwhile the Golden Division have advanced north out of the Yarmuk district. Their objective has been to arc from the Yarmuk district to the boundary with the Hay ar Rabi district by liberating the northern Industrial area. This was achieved on May 9th (9/5/17).
The Golden Division's south-western axis then combined with the northern axis to liberated the Hay ar Rabi district. This was completed on May 13th (13/5/17).
This has had the effect of throwing an eastern and western cordon around the 17 Tammuz, Hay al-Uraybi, Hay ar-Rafai, Zanjili and Old City districts. The only districts that ISIL continue to control.
Prior to this cordon being established ISIL could move freely between these districts in multiple directions. The establishment of the cordon limits ISIL to only moving North/South primarily across the Third Bridge road and the Fifth Bridge road. Particularly with complete air superiority it is very easy for the ISF to establish what is known as fire control over these roads making it extremely dangerous for ISIL fighters to use them.
This means that ISIL have gone from fighting one battle across a relatively large area to fighting multiple battles across several small areas. ISIL fighters cannot really move between those areas while the ISF who surround them can move troops and supplies around almost at will.
It is only today (18/5/17) that the ISF have entered the Najjar neighbourhood in the east of the ar-Rafai district. This is where the bridgehead for the Third Bridge is located. Therefore the eastern cordon is not yet 100% in place. However this has not stopped the ISF liberating the majority of the 17 Tammuz and al-Uraybi districts.
There really are too many variables for me to predict for how much longer the battle to liberate Mosul will last.
For example single airstrike on a key building could cause ISIL's defences to completely collapse bringing the battle to an end in a matter of hours. This is similar to what happened in Aleppo City and more recently the town of Tabqa. Both in Syria.
Likewise a single six man fire team with a heavy machine gun could exert fire control over an entire neighbourhood for days on end.
However we are now very much on the brink of all of Mosul finally being liberated. I certainly won't be making firm plans for my weekend.
16:35 on 18/5/17 (UK date).
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