Operation Featherweight: Month 34, Week 3, Day 7.

The town of Tabqa has been liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

I repeat; Tabqa Has Been Liberated.

Tabqa is a Syrian town which sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates River. It is located around 40km (25 miles) - west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria.

What gives Tabqa its main strategic importance though is the adjoining Tabqa Dam. This spans the Euphrates forming Lake Assad. It provides drinking water and hydroelectric power to much of the surrounding area. It also provided one of the few remaining crossing points over the Euphrates between Raqqa and ISIL positions within the centre of Syria.

On March 21st (21/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) along with US Marines and Special Operations Force's (SOF's) attached to the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) began an operation to liberate Tabqa.

By March 29th (29/3/17) the SDF had surrounded Tabqa on three sides. To the north they had also secured the entrance to the Tabqa Dam facility. On April 15th (15/4/17) the SDF began an assault to liberate Tabqa itself.

Within the first day the SDF had liberated the Alexandria neighbourhood which sits at the south-east of Tabqa. They had also liberated the Ayd as-Saghir neighbourhood on the south-western side of Tabqa. On April 20th (20/4/17) the SDF entered the al-Wahhab neighbourhood which sits at the southern tip of the main part of Tabqa town.

On April 29th (29/4/17) ISIL's defences within the main part of Tabqa collapsed. This allowed the SDF to liberate the Central neighbourhood, the northern al-Qarayah neighbourhood and the Wadi ash-Shubah farm and industrial/train depot area within the space of two days.

This left ISIL in control of only the so-called; "Three Neighbourhoods" in the north-west of Tabqa on the banks of Lake Assad along with the southern entrance to the dam complex. The SDF then spent the next three days attempting to negotiate ISIL's surrender. Those negotiations collapsed on May 4th (4/5/17) and an SDF assault to liberate the Three Neighbourhoods began.

Although it is made up of the First, Second and Third quarters the Three Neighbourhoods is an area of just 1.5kmsq (0.9milesq). Within that area there were only in the region of around 100 ISIL fighters left. So rather than sweeping through the neighbourhoods in stages the SDF attacked them all at the same time targeting specific ISIL fighters and fighting positions.

This operation was completed at around 16:00 (GMT) yesterday (11/5/17) with the SDF liberating the hydroelectric plant which sits within the southern side of the dam complex.

This has allowed the SDF forces with Tabqa to link up with the SDF forces that secured the northern side of the dam complex on March 25th (25/3/17). The SDF are now in complete control of Tabqa, Tabqa Dam and the surrounding area to the village of Safafah - around 1.5km (0.9 miles) east of Tabqa.

The operation to liberate Tabqa has grown out of the SDF's "Wrath of Euphrates" operation. This was begun on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16). It's original objective was to liberate Raqqa itself. So now that Tabqa has been liberated some will suggest that an operation to liberate Raqqa can now begin.

The problem is that the Wrath of Euphrates operation was dreamt up by former US President Barack Obama almost as an after thought to his plan to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul. In order to get Mosul liberated in time for the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US Presidential election the main part of Obama's plan was to leave the entire western side of the city undefended to allow ISIL to escape to Raqqa.

However at a NATO meeting in late-October 2016 Obama had it pointed out to him that if ISIL can escape from Mosul to Raqqa they can also escape from Raqqa to Turkey and from there to the rest of the World. So rather than changing the Mosul plan Obama suddenly declared that the SDF would liberate Raqqa despite this small guerrilla force not having the capacity to do so.

Obama's designated successor Hillary Clinton of course lost the November 2016 election. In the gap between the election and Obama leaving office in January 2017 Obama set about trying to make the war unwinnable for Donald Trump - his replacement as President.

A key part of Obama's plan seemed to be to undermine the integrity of the SDF coalition. This involved establishing the Syrian Arab Council (SAC) within the SDF command structure and then arming the SAC. The hope seemed to be that the SAC would start fighting the Kurdish People's Protection Unit (YPG) element of the SDF ending it as a fighting force.

On Tuesday (9/5/17) President Trump reversed this process announcing that the US will now also start arming the YPG element of the SDF alongside the SAC. This should restore the structure that has brought the SDF so much success over the past nearly three years.

Raqqa will represent the largest population centre that the SDF have ever attempted to liberate. So not only do they need a battle plan to win what will be fierce urban combat they also need a plan to accommodate the large numbers of civilians that will flee to avoid what is likely to be a long fight.

In order to do that the SDF will require the involvement of international aid agencies such as the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). We are still waiting for those mechanisms to be put in place.

If you want to see the problems created by launching a military operation without proper planning or preperation you need look no further than the operation to liberate Mosul. Eight months after Obama put this operation into motion it is still ongoing.

Located in northern Iraq Mosul was first captured by ISIL in the summer of 2014. Since then it has functioned as the group's de facto capital in the country.

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/17) the operation was launched to liberate Mosul. This is combined operation with the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias surrounding the city while the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) undertake the liberation of the city itself. CJTFOIR are supporting all elements of the operation.

On January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) the first phase of the operation was completed with the liberation of the entire eastern side of the city - known as; "The Left Bank." Following a short pause the second phase to liberate the western side of the city - "The Right Bank" - began on February 19th (19/2/17).

On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered the western side of the city itself. They did this on two axis;

The Federal Police axis entered western Mosul from the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani Military base at the southern most tip of the city. They then advanced north towards the Old City district of the city clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

The Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) axis entered the city from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city. They then advanced north-east towards the Old City district of Mosul clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

By March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division had reached the western Ramparts of the Old City liberating Mosul Railway station and the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood. This is the western most neighbourhood in a district of the city known as; "New Mosul."
 
The Golden Division axis then changed direction and headed north into the Hay al-Yarmuk district of the city.

As of April 20th (20/4/17) the Golden Division had liberated everything up to a line between the al-Nasr neighbourhood on the western outskirts of Mosul and the Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood. The Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood sits to the north of the New Mosul district which borders the Old City.

On Mosul's southern axis by March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police had succeeded in liberating the al-Tob neighbourhood which sits directly to the south of the Old City district. They had also liberated the Corniche are that sits between the Old City district and the Tigris River between the al-Jamhuriya Bridge to the south and the Old Bridge to the north.

From there the Federal Police set about liberating the Old City district. They did this in two axis advancing north from the al-Tob neighbourhood along al-Shaziani Street while at the same time advancing west from the Corniche along Nineveh Street. In both directions the Federal Police cleared the buildings adjoining the streets as they advanced.

The Federal Police's primary objective within the Old City is the al-Nuri Mosque which sits just north of the al-Shaziani/Nineveh Street junction. As one of the place's where ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group to be an Islamic State this seems to be where ISIL have concentrated the majority of their fighters in Mosul.
 
As of May 4th (4/5/17) the Federal Police had surrounded the al-Nuri Mosque complex on three sides. At their closest point they were at the walls of the Mosque complex and 30 metres/yards away at their furthest.

On May 4th (4/5/17) the ISF's 9th Armoured Division and the combined Rapid Reaction Force opened a third axis to the north of the western side of Mosul. On that first day this northern axis succeeded in liberating if not fully securing the Musaharrifah district on the outskirts of Mosul.

On May 6th (6/5/17) the northern axis entered the Hay 17 Tammuz district. This is the most northern district in western Mosul. Within all of five hours the ISF had advanced as far as the Sahaba Mosque which around 1km (0.6 miles) within the district. Twelve hours after that the ISF had advanced as far as the Mufti Mosque. This is around 1.5km (1.2 miles) south of the Sahaba Mosque roughly 2.5km (3.2 miles) within 17 Tammuz district.

This northern axis has continued its rapid advance. Having more or less liberated the 17 Tammuz district by May 7th (7/5/17) it is now focusing on liberating the underdeveloped area between the Tigris River and the Hay Ar Rafai district. They have also liberated the Al-Haramat 2 district which sits between the 17 Tammuz and Hay al-Uyrabi districts.

Meanwhile the Golden Division have advanced to liberate the northern Industrial Area. This sits to the west of the Hay Ar Rabi district. This effectively joins the northern and south-western axis'

It limits ISIL to just the Hay Ar Rabi, Hay al-Uyrabi, Hay Ar Rafai and Az Zanjili districts along with the Old City district.

16:40 on 11/5/17 (UK date).