Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 5, Day 1.

I'll keep this brief because there are a lot of other things going on today (22/7/11). Besides Month 5 begins on Sunday (24/7/11).

This week in Libya the Nafusa mountains front line has remained static with the rebels unable to advance on Libyan government positions. On the Misrata front line the rebels have maintained their narrow breakout corridor and are extending it towards Zilten at a rate of around 1.2 miles (2km) per day. However they are sustaining heavy casualties of around 20 per day and the casualty rate is expected to rise and the rate of advance is expected to slow as the rebels approach Zilten and will have to go house to house to clear the town. On the Ajdabiya/Brega front line the rebels spent the early part of the week claiming that they were about to re-take Brega in record time. What actually happened is that on Sunday (17/7/11) Libyan government forces withdrew from Brega to Ras Lanuf. As of Thursday (21/7/11) the rebels have so far been unable to secure the town.

Even in light of these small gains by the rebels their Transitional National Council (TNC) is still only able to exert control over around 12% of the country. This is very similar to the situation in Somalia and why most nations outside of the 25 member International Contact Group have disregarded last Friday's (15/7/11) declaration by the contact group that the TNC are the legitimate government of Libya.