Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 2, Day 1.

I should start with an explanation. During all the confusion of the Royal wedding/Mayday/bin Laden I gained a bit of time. Then during the confusion of the G8 Summit I gained a bit more time and in the process forced myself to work three Saturday's when I really didn't have to. However today (30/7/11) is the first day of the second week of the fourth month of the war against Libya or day 104 if you prefer.

Whatever you call it this week has been dominated by the Chinese Prime Minister's visit to Europe. As already mentioned at some length on Monday (27/6/11) the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Muammer Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and Abdullah Senussi. This is despite both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch releasing reports stating that there is no evidence whatsoever that Libyan government forces used rape as a weapon of war. The ICC's Chief Prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo has yet to retract that claim.

In terms of fighting it has been a relatively quiet week. The Ajdabiya/Brega front line and the Misrata front line are both still active and some NATO bombing continues. The real developments though have taken place on the Nafusa mountains front line. On Wednesday (29/6/11) a French newspaper, Le Figaro ran a government sponsored expose that revealed that France had parachuted supplies of assault rifles, sub-machine guns, ant-tank rockets and ammunition to the rebels in that area in early June. It was those weapons that enabled rebel fighters to mount their two week advance that ended when they ran into a Libyan government stop line about 30 miles (48km) outside Tripoli on 16/6/11. The rebels failure to break through this line meant that the rebels had to again be re-supplied by a Qatari air-drop on Tuesday (28/6/11). This still wasn't enough and by Thursday Libyan government forces had succeeded in pushing the rebels back to positions some 50 miles (80km) outside Tripoli although some western news agencies are still trying to claim this as a rebel victory.

The purpose for all the publicity over the supply of weapons to the rebels was to provoke a reaction from China, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). On Thursday (30/6/11) China did react simply pointing out that the supply of weapons breaches the arms embargo imposed by UNSC resolution 1970(2011) and re-stated in resolution 1973(2011).

Despite the supply of weapons Britain seems to have given up hope of the rebels ever being able to take Tripoli. On Wednesday they confirmed that they had given the rebels permission to cut the oil pipeline that supplies the Zawiya refinery although it is believed that this has been done in such a way as to cause minimal damage rather then simply blowing it up. Britain hopes that the pressure this will put on the Libyan government will cause it to collapse and end the conflict by mid-August. Whether or not that happens the cutting of the pipeline will make life in Tripoli very unpleasant affecting everything from the delivery of food and medical services through to the supply electricity and sewage treatment facilities. That means that post-Qaddafi Libya is likely to be a disease ridden nation with no functioning government or infrastructure where tribal warlords fight each other for power with all the guns that have flooded the country. That's a recipe for a failed state if there ever was one. So the Libyans should probably stop thinking of this conflict in terms of weeks, months and days and just start accepting it as their new normal.