So, Shall We Have Another Referendum?

Yesterday (12/12/19) Britain held a General Election. It's second in as many years.

Like all things in British politics over the past two years this was dominated by one thing. Brexit, Britain's exit from the European Union (EU).

The Liberal Democrat Party (LibDem) positioned themselves as the party to block Brexit. They're so sweet they actually thought the slogan; "Bollocks to Brexit" counted as risque in British politics.

This strategy saw the LibDems do worse than they did at the 2017 election. Falling from 12 seats to 11. Even their leader Jo Swinson managed to lose her seat.

Swinson lost to the Scottish National Party (SNP). They too strongly opposed Brexit. But for a very different reason to the LibDems.

The SNP oppose Brexit because they've promised that if Britain leaves the EU then they will take Scotland out of Britain. That is a complete pie-in-the-sky dream. Unlike Spain's Catalonia region Scotland is Britain's poorest. It actually asked to join Britain after going bankrupt.

Seriously. Nationally there is a small, fringe Nazi party called the British National Party (BNP). They believe that everything will be wonderful once the proud British race throws off the shackles of its Zionist masters.

In Scotland there is a large, mainstream party called the Scottish National Party (SNP). They believe that everything will be wonderful once the proud Scottish race throws off the shackles of its English masters.

Which is completely different. Apparently.

Although to actual ANTIFA activists it's known as; "Peronist Facism." After the practices of Argentina's Juan Peron.

What the SNP were planning to do at this election was to prop-up a Labour Party led coalition government. Giving up the idea of a Scottish independence referendum is the price they were really hoping to pay to join that coalition and block Brexit.

That plan was partly successful for the SNP. They did a lot better than at the 2017 election. Growing from 35 seats to 48. Unfortunately the supposed hung Parliament and Labour's need for a coalition partner never materialised.

So the SNP are now stuck with 48 MP's. And a promise to take Scotland out of Britain.

As for the Labour Party. Since the morning after the 2017 election they have been utterly convinced that they are on the brink of power. So have spent those two years trying every trick in the book to bring down the government and force this election.

In doing that they somehow managed to forget to have a position on Brexit. They were punished for it by the voters.

Listening to Labour supporters last night you'd think they'd been massacred. The truth is though that they didn't do as badly as they probably should have done. Only losing 59 seats, falling from 262 to 203.

There were, I think, several things that limited the damage for Labour.

Firstly there is the deep unpopularity of the leader of the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson is one of those people who is extremely popular amongst his extremely small group of friends. He arrogantly assumes that this translates as him being extremely popular with everyone.

It really doesn't. There are traditional Conservative voters who have a real problem liking Boris Johnson. Who they, I think rightly, see as an arrogant buffoon. And these are the people who voted for George Osborne. Who is clearly evil incarnate.

Secondly the Labour Party, particularly the Progressive London wing, now functions very much like a cult. People are inducted into the cult at an early age (school/university). The cult then controls all aspects of their lives. Funnily enough the cult really doesn't think it's members should vote against it.

Sadly the third reason is the anti-Semitism. Which Labour, particularly Ken Livingstone, have long identified as an electoral advantage for the Labour Party.

Particularly in London and large northern cities such as Leeds and Bradford Britain has a large Muslim population. Who can trace their roots back to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Many of them follow a very extreme form of Islam known as Deobandi Islam.

They are basically in Britain because they were kicked out of Muslim majority nations like Pakistan and Bangladesh. Where their views are considered far too extreme. They are viciously homophobic and viciously anti-Semitic. For reasons which have absolutely nothing to do with Israel.

So I'm not sure how helpful it was. Starting a rumour that Jews controlled the weather and made it rain to suppress  turnout amongst Labour voters.

Although I should point out. As the guy named "King" with the scars on his hands in the shape of stigmata. Every time I appear to perform a miracle it counts as an anti-Semitic act. Particularly as I've managed to scratch my foot on something. So am now up to three.

The city of Belfast in Northern Ireland probably produced the most interesting talking point of the night.

In the North Belfast constituency the deputy leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Nigel Dodd lost his seat to John Finucane. Of Sinn Fein.

This is massively significant.

The DUP are widely seen as the political wing of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF). A Protestant paramilitary group. Sinn Fein are widely seen as the political wing of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). A Catholic paramilitary group.

Between 1969 and 1998 these various paramilitary groups fought a civil war in Northern Ireland. Known euphemistically as; "The Troubles." This was really a dispute over social housing that got massively out of hand.

Leading up to and throughout The Troubles Northern Ireland was a really poor place where nobody could afford to buy a home. So you had Catholics and Protestants deeply segregated each in their own social housing projects. Which we call; "Council Estates."

So even as recently as the 2017 election the DUP simply wouldn't bother campaigning in Sinn Fein areas and Sinn Fein simply wouldn't bother campaigning in DUP areas.

The Troubles were ended by the 1998 Belfast Agreement Peace Treaty. Which is commonly known as; "The Good Friday Agreement."

The big, overarching idea behind the Good Friday Agreement was to; "Use Prosperity as a Tool For Peace." Essentially as people get richer they'll lose interest in fighting each other over the sparse scraps.

This has actually been very successful. Particularly amongst the Protestant community. They've been moving out of the council estates into the suburbs in large numbers. As a result the Protestant estates are now falling into ruins.

As the joke goes; "The orange areas are turning green (with grass)." Although I think COP25 urban planners would describe them as; "Brownfield."

So the DUP have lost a seat because, once again, DUP supporters are getting richer faster than Sinn Fein supporters. Any mention of demographic change can be inflammatory in Northern Ireland. But I don't think DUP supporters will be that upset for long.

The big winners were Boris Johnson's Conservative Party. They gained 47 seats from 2017 giving them a total of 365. And a majority of 80. All on the slogan of; "Get Brexit Done."

So there is now the question of what Brexit will Boris do?

Back in October 2019 Prime Minister Johnson announced that he had secured a new Withdrawal Agreement from the EU.

This Withdrawal Agreement is exactly the same as the Withdrawal Agreement secured by his predecessor Theresa May. With just two small changes to the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. Known as; "The Backstop."

I'll attempt to do a more detailed version of this after dinner. Or possibly tomorrow.

However it is such a small change I did manage to provide the gist of it here;

https://twitterwithbraincells.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-see-amaq-are-still-on-twitter.html

At around 18:10 on 13/12/19 (UK date).

Edited at around 15:40 on 14/12/19 (UK date) to fiddle about upstairs and copy & paste from another tab;

The Backstop Protocol is itself only a very small part of the Withdrawal Agreement.

If all other parts of the Withdrawal Agreement fail then it is the fail-safe which kicks-in. To protect the Belfast Treaty. And all the New Millennium Homes it built.

It does this by placing Northern Ireland in a tailor-made Single Market with the EU. One which is remarkably similar to but fundamentally different from the EU Single Market.

Basically it allows Northern Ireland to enjoy all the benefits of being a member of the EU Single Market. Just with none of the negatives. Such as the large contributions to the EU budget and the Free Movement of Human Cargo.

At the same time the Backstop Protocol places the UK Mainland into a tailor-made Customs Union. One which is remarkably similar to but fundamentally different from the EU Customs Union.

The areas in which it differs are extremely technical. Things like the definition of imported goods in free circulation. Along with the design of the form that you will have to fill in when crossing a border and the customs checks undertaken.

It is that type of technical detail though that really adds costs to small and medium sized business. Those extra costs though do have a tendency to create new jobs. Particularly for data entry jerks like me.

What prompted the EU and Britain to bother creating a whole new Single Market and a whole new Customs Union was respect for Northern Irish Protestants. Who did not want to see a border between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland. "Regulatory Divergence" in the jargon.

Personally I always felt that stance created an awful lot of complex, technical problems. For extremely abstract, ideological reasons.

However we did the work anyway.

What Boris Johnson "New Deal" does is take the UK mainland out of the tailor-made Customs Union. Making it so much harder for business to import/export to the EU.

It also leaves Northern Ireland in the EU Customs Union. With all its negatives, except for budget contributions.

This will create a so-called "Hard Border" between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland. Regulatory Divergence at its most extreme.

However the Northern Ireland Assembly can, unilaterally scrap the Backstop Protocol. Without the consent of the EU.

All that needs to happen is that the DUP and Sinn Fein need to agree in the Northern Ireland Assembly. The DUP and Sinn Fein haven't been able to agree that the Northern Ireland Assembly can even meet for more than two years now.

So if I had to hand down a verdict I think that Boris Johnson's deal is clearly much worse than Theresa May's deal.

It is really no surprise that he was able to win those 'concessions' from the EU.

What's a mystery is why he asked for them in the first place.

15:50 on 14/12/19 (UK date).


Edited again at around 16:05 on 14/12/19 (UK date) to further add;

Of course, in his supreme arrogance.

Boris Johnson decided to hold an election during a meeting of the masters of the universe.

Where we're all have a good laugh at America. As the World burns.

So there was a little talking point about election interference. Up in the Glenns somewhere.

That was amusing though. Rather than anything which was intended to have a material impact.

So I nearly forgot;

George Soros'/Donald Tusk's/{INSERT AS APPROPRIATE}'s theme music.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=gD_Ejvq5GgU

16:05 on 14/12/19 (UK date).


Edited again at around 11:15 on 15/12/19 (UK date) to add;

Clearly there's a lesson here.

You can either have something done fast. Or you can have it done right.

Boris' Backstop is bad for Northern Ireland. It is bad for the UK Mainland.

It will be though absolutely catastrophic for the Republic of Ireland. Much of their economy comes from agriculture and the UK Mainland is pretty much the sole market for Irish farmers.

Over this past year Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been a major irritation for me and everybody else. He has always been the first to demand that Brexit be delayed and, ideally, cancelled entirely.

He is pretty much the main reason that Britain is no longer run by an adult.

Unlike with Donald Tusk this hasn't been for snide reasons. It's just that the consequences are potentially catastrophic for the Republic of Ireland. And it turns out Leo Varadkar just isn't actually particularly good at his job.

Also Leo Varadkar is just wrong on this Lisa Smith/ISIL issue. In the same way that my table just isn't a car.

So no-one's exactly overburdened with sympathy for him at the moment.

However Boris Johnson is trying to use his backstop as a gun he can hold to Ireland and the EU's head. To force them to rush through a trade deal in just one year.

There's a couple of serious problems with this.

Firstly when you hold a gun to someone's head they sometimes become compliant. They very rarely become cooperative.

I mean. Has Britain learned nothing for the 15 years its been holding a gun to my head?!

When it comes to lasting trade deals with your largest trading partner cooperative is what you need.

Also multilateral trade deals are complicated things. It takes time to properly work through all the details.

So now the battle is over I think we all need to stop for a minute and take a breath. And ask ourselves whether at times we were forced to take things that little bit too far.

Boris Johnson in particular really needs to man up and start taking responsibility.

For once in his life.

11:30 on 15/12/19 (UK date).