Britain's Brexit Withdrawal Agreement: Moving Forward.

On June 23rd 2016 (23/6/16) Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU). The so-called; "Brexit."

On November 25th 2018 (25/11/18) the British government reached a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.

It is published here; https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/withdrawal-agreement-and-political-declaration

On December 4th 2018 (4/12/18) this Withdrawal Agreement was introduced to the British Parliament in the form of a bill.

Here, in 2019 Britain's Parliamentarians are still debating whether to adopt the bill as law.

I covered the Withdrawal Agreement, in some detail, across four parts.

Part One: https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/01/britains-brexit-withdrawal-agreement_46.html

Part Two: https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/01/britains-brexit-withdrawal-agreement_30.html

Part Three: https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/01/britains-brexit-withdrawal-agreement_9.html

Part Four: https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/01/britains-brexit-withdrawal-agreement.html

Across those four parts I hope I made one thing clear;

Britain needs to adopt this Withdrawal Agreement. Without further delay.

I am not just saying that because the effects of a No Deal Brexit would be catastrophic. I'm saying that because this is actually an extraordinarily good deal.

In February 2017 Britain adopted into law the 2017 European Union Act. This established that Britain will be leaving the EU on March 29th 2019 (29/3/19).

Parliament rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement will, in no way change the fact that Britain will leave the EU on March 29th (29/3/19).

Crucially Parliament adopting the Withdrawal Agreement will also, in no way change the fact that Britain will leave the EU on March 29th (29/3/19).

Under the Withdrawal Agreement from March 29th (29/1/19) Britain will cease to be member of the EU.

Instead it will be considered a Third Country by the EU. The same status the EU grants to the other 165 members of the United Nations (UN) who are not also members of the EU.

No longer being a member of the EU Britain will be entirely free to negotiate Free Trade agreements with both the EU and non-EU nations.

Under the Withdrawal Agreement Britain will end its contributions to the EU budget.

Beyond the commitment to the end of the current EU budget period in 2020. Something former Prime Minister David Cameron legally committed the UK to back in 2013.

The Withdrawal Agreement also returns Britain's share of EU assets it has contributed to and owns part of.

Assets which the Withdrawal Agreement values at around GB£21bn. Dependent on the performance of complex financial instruments. Such as the entire UK economy.

The Withdrawal Agreement also establishes the terms on which the UK can buy services from the EU in the future. A typical relationship in which any nation buys services from another nation as a normal part of international relations.

In a break from those standard terms the Withdrawal Agreement actually allows Britain to tell the EU what its bill for buying these services will be. Rather than the EU simply sending the UK a bill.

One of the main factors which prompted people to vote to leave the EU was a desire to take back control. To restore the supremacy of British Laws and British Courts.

The Withdrawal Agreement does not immediately achieve this. However it does not set out to. No nation would want to suddenly scrap 40 years worth of laws overnight.

In discussing the Withdrawal Agreement I explained the catastrophic effect such a move would have on the ability to move people and goods. Between the UK and not just the EU but the entire World. It is akin to the UK placing itself under total economic blockade.

That is just the immediate problem. Scrapping 40 years worth of laws overnight would also mean that your contract of employment suddenly becomes invalid. Likewise your car insurance or home insurance would suddenly no longer be valid.

Not the sort of thing you only want to discover the moment after you've been flooded out.

Instead the Withdrawal Agreement keeps those laws in place for a two year Transition Period. To allow for alternative arrangements to be made.

The two year Transition Period can be extended. If alternative arrangements are still not in place by then the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland takes effect.

This immediately replaces the EU laws with identical British laws.

It then allows Britain to replace those laws with independently passed British laws. On an ad-hoc, case-by-case basis. Providing those laws do not offer less protection than they laws they replace. "Backsliding" in the jargon.

What independent laws Britain will be able to pass in the future is really too complex a question for me, or anyone to answer now. It is really dependent on what sort of trade deal Britain wants to have with the EU in the future.

Any Free Trade agreement requires some level of harmonisation of laws governing safety and quality standards.

One of the main reasons why the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) took 7 years to negotiate was making sure Canadian and EU products adhered to the same safety and quality standards.

The Withdrawal Agreement most certainly does not take the can of these questions and simply kick it down the road.

Instead it establishes a structured and time limited forum for them to be addressed. Free from confusions and complications. Such as the unravelling of complex financial instruments.

During the Transition Period the UK will continue to adhere to all EU laws. Including the Free Movement of People/Human Capital. As such it will not immediately bring an end to migration into the UK from the EU. Nor expel EU migrants already within the UK.

However it puts in strong deterrents to limit that migration to just short-term, seasonal migrants. The supply of which you wouldn't immediately want to block overnight.

The Withdrawal Agreement also allows the UK to refuse entry to or deport a whole range of EU migrants.

People with criminal convictions or who would place an undue burden on Britain's healthcare system and public services by being too sick to or unwilling to work.

If the Transition Period gives way to the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland Britain will immediately do away with the Free Movement of People/Human Capital. While Northern Ireland will continue to remain in a single market with the EU.

In discussing this concession Britain has won from the EU I compared it to a Muslim being allowed to say; "Oh, but there are other gods, except Allah."

I don't think that should be considered offensive. The concession Britain has been able to win from the EU here is very much of that scale and severity.

So the Withdrawal Agreement most certainly meets the tests to determine whether it honours the result of the 2016 referendum. It also wins significant concessions for Britain from the EU without giving much away.

The Withdrawal Agreement is also extremely comprehensive. The more you get into the fine technical detail of it the more it reads like a highly skilled negotiator's work of art.

For example Article 5(2) of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland protects the rights of EU citizens to travel through Northern Ireland to and from the Republic of Ireland. For example if they want to fly into Derry City Airport in Northern Ireland to visit the border town of Muff in the Republic of Ireland.

These EU citizens in transit will have extremely limited contact with Northern Irish society. They will not take up jobs and they will not use public services such as housing and healthcare. Their only real contact will be putting money into the local economy through hotel bills, taxi rides and meals out.

So Northern Ireland blocking these EU citizens in transit is not just the question nobody asked. It's the question no-one would even think of asking.

Yet the Withdrawal Agreement is so comprehensive it has not only thought to ask the question it has made provision to answer it.

The objections to the Withdrawal Agreement by British Parliamentarians and the media are often entirely false.

Not just false but false to the point of being utterly ridiculous.

Take for example the latest demand being made by the Labour Party. Particularly through John Mann MP.

They wish to see the Withdrawal Agreement amended so it ensures that the protections for UK workers remain the same as they are under EU law.

During the Transition Period the UK will adhere to all EU laws. Including the laws governing the protection of workers.

If the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland is invoked the UK will be able to replace those laws with independently passed British laws. However those laws will not be allowed to backslide. Offer less protection to workers.

So the question John Mann MP and the Labour Party are raising is one that the British government thought of years ago and have addressed during the negotiation.

The government have then published the results in the Withdrawal Agreement in black and white for John Mann and anyone else to see.

Something the UK government did, apparently long before the Labour Party even thought to ask the question.

Another popular objection. Famously put forward by Conservative MP Esther McVey is that the Withdrawal Agreement contains No Plan B.

The Withdrawal Agreement lays out a Plan A. The two year Transition Period.

The Withdrawal Agreement then lays out a Plan B. Extending the Transition Period.

Finally the Withdrawal Agreement lays out a Plan C. The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.

Objecting to Plan C because you want to draw up a Plan B raises serious questions about whether you've been tested for dyslexia.

It is on the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland that the objections have been their most ridiculous.

The protocol allows the UK to trade with the rest of the World on the Most Favoured Nations (MFN) rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Rules underpinned by the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT).

Hard Brexiteers want to prevent Britain trading on the WTO terms. So Britain can trade on WTO rules.

It is also claimed that the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland does not contain legally binding guarantees.

The Withdrawal Agreement and the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland both most certainly do contain legally binding guarantees. They also provide a dispute resolution mechanism to ensure those legally binding guarantees are enforced.

A dispute resolution mechanism which is heavily biased in Britain's favour.

What neither the Withdrawal Agreement nor the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland do is stamp those legally binding guarantees on every article, on every page of the documents.

That is because it is completely legally unnecessary to do so.

It would also probably double the length of documents which already seem to be too long and complicated for British Parliamentarians to comprehend.

The only legitimate objections I've seen raised are those of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

They are concerned by the Regulatory Divergence created by the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. Rules which are different on the British mainland from rules in Northern Ireland.

However even here I think the DUP are being overly sensitive.

Even before the start of The Troubles let alone the 1998 Belfast Agreement there was significant regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the British mainland.

It is, after all Schedule VII of the Terrorism Act 2000 which inhibits the free movement of British citizens between Northern Ireland and the British mainland.

If you were trying to exploit Brexit to further the cause of a united Ireland the advice you would give to the DUP is very simple.

You would advise the DUP to reject the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland and pursue a No Deal Brexit.

A No Deal Brexit will not repeal the Belfast Agreement. Including the legal obligation that places on Northern Ireland to hold a binding public referendum on unification with the Republic of Ireland.

What a No Deal Brexit will do is create an economic catastrophe that will make unification with the Republic of Ireland look very attractive to Northern Irish voters of all stripes.

As with all British Parliamentarians it is still well within the DUP's power to stop the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland coming into effect. Even once the Withdrawal Agreement is adopted.

They just have to refrain from buggering up the next two phases of the negotiation.

Like they're buggering up this first phase.


(Originally posted at 18:25 on 10/1/19 (UK date)).

18:50 on 15/1/19 (UK date).