A Brexit Blockade on Common Knowledge.

In June 2016 the British public voted to leave the European Union (EU). The so-called; "Brexit."

In February 2017 the British Parliament ratified that decision into law. Through the passing of the European Union Act 2017.

In November 2018 the British Government and the EU reached an agreement on their relationship after Brexit. The Withdrawal Agreement.

On January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the British Parliament rejected this Withdrawal Agreement. By 432 votes to 202. Apparently the largest defeat for a government in the history of the British Parliament.

As expected the Labour Party used this defeat to introduce a motion of No Confidence in the government.

The government was so sure that it would defeat this No Confidence motion it allowed it to be tabled immediately. It also waived the regulation 14 days it has to respond to a No Confidence motion.

As a result the No Confidence motion was voted on the following day, January 16th (16/1/19). It was defeated by 325 votes to 306.

One thing really highlights the idiocy of the Parliamentarians who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement. On January 9th (9/1/19) they amended the bill itself.

In order to force the government to return to Parliament within three working days to lay out the next steps. In the event of the government being defeated.

The Parliamentarians who voted for this amendment then voted against the bill. Thus rendering the amendment invalid.

Despite this the government immediately returned to Parliament to advise it of the next steps. Even before the No Confidence vote had taken place.

The government will introduce a fresh bill on the Brexit issue on January 29th (29/1/19).

The exact wording of this bill has yet to be written. However it could read something as simple as;

"BREXIT?"

The purpose of this new bill is not to put forward the government's agenda. Instead it is to allow Parliamentarians to amend the bill to put forward their own agenda.

Parliament's opposition to the Withdrawal Agreement is entirely negative.

The Labour Party opposed it simply in the hope that defeat would bring down the Conservative government. Allowing the Labour Party to become the new government.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) opposed it simply to avoid them having to call a referendum on Scottish independence.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) opposed it to prevent the regulatory divergence created by the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.

Parliamentarians who wish to Remain in the EU, the so-called; "Remoaners," of all stripes opposed it as a way to stop Brexit.

The Hard Brexiteers opposed it as a way to force a No Deal Brexit.

Having been given the opportunity to say what they are opposed to this new Brexit bill gives Parliamentarians the opportunity to say what they are in favour of. This will form the basis of a new set of demands to be presented to the EU.

Absolutely none of this changes, in any way, the fact that Britain will be leaving the EU at 23:00 (GMT) on March 29th 2019 (28/3/19).

If British Parliamentarians cannot reach an agreement with the EU by that point then Britain will leave with no agreement. The No Deal scenario.

In discussing the Withdrawal Agreement I highlighted how a No Deal Brexit will be extremely bad news for Britain.

It will see Britain immediately withdraw from five critical EU agencies;

The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (FRONTEX),

The European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA),

The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA),

The European Railway Agency (ERA),

The European Agency for the Operational Management of Large-Scale IT Systems in the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (EU-LISA).

It will also see Britain unilaterally scrap all the laws which underpin its membership of those EU agencies. Laws which have been built up over the course of over 40 years.

The scrapping of these laws will see Britain fall afoul of Article 20 or Article XX of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT).

This allows nations to close its borders to anything which endangers human health (b). It also allows nations to close their borders to anything which threatens their ability to enforce normal border, customs controls (d).

Establishing that transport vehicles and other conveyances are safe is both necessary to protect human health and considered part of normal border controls.

Just today (23/1/19) the occupying regime in Northern Cyprus announced an agreement with Turkey. With both sides agreeing that the others driver certification system is sufficient Turkish driving licenses will now be recognised in occupied Cyprus. And vice versa.

Back in December 2018, amid the Parliamentary debate on the Withdrawal Agreement, close British ally Jordan announced it will be reinstating the 1999 Land Transport Treaty with Syria. This bilateral treaty allows Jordanian vehicles to drive on Syrian roads and Syrian vehicles to drive on Jordanian roads.

The General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) is the set of rules which underpin the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The WTO is essentially just a mechanism to resolve disputes arising from GATT.

The Hard Brexiteers are pushing for a No Deal Brexit so Britain can trade on WTO rules.

Apparently not realising that it is these WTO rules which are going to f*ck Britain in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Lacking the laws needed to comply with Article XX of GATT Britain will be effectively placing itself under a complete economic blockade.

No transport vehicles will be allowed in or out of Britain. You certainly can't move goods without transport vehicles.

In discussing this initially I had a deadline of three days. To write what eventually turned out to be some 25,000 words.

So I resorted to a sort of shorthand. Comparing the situation to Israel's blockade of Gaza.

I'm now ready to concede that perhaps the finer points of the border relationship between Israel and Gaza do not fit into the category of; "Common Knowledge."

On an extremely technical level there is actually no Israeli blockade of Gaza.

The main problem moving goods into Gaza is one of money.

Responsibility for paying Gaza's bills falls to the Palestinian Authority. That is controlled by the Fatah Party. They are in a long running dispute with the Hamas Party which controls Gaza.

As a result the Palestinian Authority simply refuses to pay Gaza's bills.

Take for example the 2017 Gaza electricity crisis. This was not the result of the actions of the Israeli government. The Palestinian Authority simply refused to pay Gaza's electricity bill so the electricity providers simply cut off Gaza's supply.

Added to that the Palestinian Authority also refuses to pay the salaries of government employees in Gaza. With the government being the largest employer in Gaza this has effectively starved the local economy of money.

Israel is, of course, extremely happy with this situation. It allows for Gaza to effectively be placed under blockade. While allowing Israel to credibly deny that they are the ones placing Gaza under blockade.

Israel does restrict, by placing quotas on, certain goods entering Gaza. These are goods which Israel argues threatens the health of its citizens. Construction materials which can be used to build military bunkers and attack tunnels being a prime example.

The exact goods Israel restricts on these Article XX grounds and the quotas it places on them are a matter of constant discussion, dispute and argument.

Another significant problem moving goods into Gaza is that Israel does not recognise transport vehicles from Gaza as safe to travel on Israeli roads.

So even if you're the United Nations (UN) and you want to move goods into Gaza you have to wait for Israel to provide transport vehicles to make the trip.

Funnily enough Israel is hardly forthcoming when it comes to providing transport vehicles to move goods into Gaza.

In the event of a No Deal Brexit Article XX of GATT will prevent any and all transport vehicles entering or leaving Britain.

This will create a situation similar in nature, but much more extensive than the fuel protests Britain saw in September 2000.

Here protesters angry at the cost of fuel blockaded all of Britain's oil refineries. Within about three days the entire country had effectively ground to a halt.

In order to prevent this, along with food shortages and riots Britain will have to unilaterally recognise EU transport vehicles as safe for the purposes of GATT.

There has been no official word on this. However all the No Deal planning I have seen so far seems to rely on EU transport vehicles continuing to be allowed access to Britain. It doesn't even seem to entertain the idea that they would be refused entry.

So a No Deal Brexit won't present any major problem in terms of EU goods arriving on the British market. However it will cause significant problems in terms of British goods arriving on the EU market.

Obviously the EU transport vehicles Britain unilaterally allows in won't want to return empty. It's a waste of money for their operators.

However it will be entirely up to those EU hauliers which British goods they transport to the EU market. It's unlikely they're going to prioritise British goods which compete with EU manufacturers.

For example I don't see BMW using their car transporters to get Jaguar cars to the Berlin market.

So rather than taking back control a No Deal Brexit will actually will make Britain more dependent than ever before on the EU.

Effectively putting British manufacturers in the humiliating position of having to ask the EU for permission to use the toilet.

With British transport vehicles being put out of commission that does risk reducing the overall supply of transport vehicles.

However many British operators are already moving to solve that problem. By simply re-registering as EU operators.

For example EasyJet which operates air transport vehicles (planes) has registered 130 of those planes in Austria.

Just yesterday (22/1/19) P&O which operates sea transport vehicles (boats) announced that it is registering it's entire UK based fleet in Cyprus.

In order to take advantage of not just Cyprus' status as an EU member but also its place on the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) White List.

Both EasyJet and P&O will now no longer be paying their taxes in Britain.

Not only will Britain have to resolve the Article XX issue with the EU it will have to also resolve it with all other, non-EU nations. The World over.

So I stand by my assertion that a No Deal Brexit will be catastrophic for Britain. However there are a number of well rehearsed counter-measures that can be quickly brought in to mitigate the worst effects of that catastrophe.

Therefore a No Deal Brexit is not so severe as to justify cancelling Brexit all together. As the Remoaners are currently trying to claim

Not least because at 23:00 and 1 second the Remoaners entire motivation for opposing the Withdrawal Agreement will simply disappear.

The situation is so significant though that it has seen the British Establishment bring out its big guns.

Not least because the Remoaners attempts to block Brexit seem dangerously close to treason. As defined by the 1848 act.

It certainly seems poor etiquette for Parliament to advance a bill to the Monarch. A bill which would ask her to disregard the counsel of her subjects. As expressed through the 2016 referendum.

On Thursday, January 17th (17/1/19) Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth II was involved in a traffic collision.

He was, erm Brexiting a side road at a T-junction when his Land Rover was hit by an oncoming vehicle.

By an amazing coincidence the local, Norfolk County Council were set to discuss that main road, the Queen Elizabeth II Way, the very next day. Friday, January 18th (18/1/19). They concluded that things were moving too fast and voted to cut the speed limit.

You could describe Norfolk County Council as; "The Local Parliament." Just as in EU terms you could describe the British Parliament as; "The Local Parliament."

Remoaners in the British Parliament of course think Brexit is moving too fast and want to slow it down.

In response to Prince Philip's collision there has been a lot of discussion in Britain over whether, at 97 he is too old to be driving. Even if there is no legal way of stopping him from driving. Unless he is convicted of a specific driving offence. As is true of any driver, at any age.

In short Britain has been forced to ask itself if its system of certifying drivers as safe is sufficient for its own purposes. Let alone the EU's purposes.

To those familiar with the history of The Troubles in Northern Ireland Prince Philip's collision brought a specific scene to mind. The aftermath of the August 27th 1979 (27/8/79) Warrenpoint or Narrow Water ambush.

This saw the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) use two roadside bombs to destroy a British Military convoy. At a T-junction outside Narrow Water Castle in Warrenpoint, County Down.

Resulting in the deaths of 18 British soldiers it was the worst PIRA attack on the British Military in the entire conflict.

The impact of the Warrenpoint ambush to intensified by the fact it came on the same day as the PIRA assassination of Lord Louis Mountbatten. On his boat in Sligo Water in the Republic of Ireland.

Lord Mountbatten was the uncle and effectively adoptive father of Prince Philip.

Just as things are getting interesting at around 18:25 on 23/1/19 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 20:00 on 23/1/19 (UK date) to add above & below;

Wednesday, January 16th (16/1/19) - the day before Prince Philip's crash - also produced scenes familiar from The Troubles. In Scotland, a country not unused to the sectarianism of Northern Ireland.

The bomb squad were called to Balfour Street in Fife to deal with a suspect device. Which turned out to be a home brew beer kit.

This seemed like an attempt to sober up the Hard Brexiteers, drunk on the prospect of a No Deal Brexit. By reminding them of Article XX of GATT and the Israel/Gaza border issues.

Even Britain is prepared to admit that the 1917 Balfour Declaration may have a role to play in the current conflict between Israel and Palestine.

Friday, January 18th (18/1/19) brought even more scenes reminiscent of The Troubles. This time in Northern Ireland itself.

Four masked men burst into a house on the Lower Dromore Road in Warrenpoint, County Down. They shot and killed a 37 year old man and shot and wounded a 21 year old woman.

Following these coded warnings the big drama came on the night of Saturday, January 19th (19/1/19). A car bomb exploded outside the Bishop Street Court House in Londonderry, County Londonderry.

Along with the Warrenpoint shooting this is exactly the sort of violence that is associated with The Troubles.

It seemed intended to warn the DUP that it is not just the Republic of Ireland and the EU who are insisting on the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.

The Protocol is also being insisted upon by the British Crown. The British Crown the DUP claim to be so loyal to.

This is a very significant statement.

In discussing the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland I said that there are some Protestant hardliners who want to return to The Troubles. At the time of the 1998 Belfast Agreement those hardliners included not just DUP supporters but also members of the British Security Service, MI5.

These hardliners tried to stop the Belfast Agreement ever coming into force. By carrying out the August 15th 1998 (15/8/98) Omagh bombing. Murdering 29 civilians this was the single worst atrocity of The Troubles.

The Protestant hardliners thought it would be blamed on Catholics. It would be so utterly appalling it would make it impossible for Britain to allow the Belfast Agreement to take effect on December 2nd 1998 (2/12/98).

It has been well established that MI5 had agents within the Real Irish Republican Army (RIRA) group which was blamed for the bombing.

It is also well established that the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), the police at the time were informed, on multiple occasions that the bombing was going to take place.

It has also been well established that MI5 actually tracked the bomb, in real-time, from the bomb factory to its target. Yet failed to intervene to stop the bomb reaching it's target or even evacuate the area.

Both US and Irish intelligence work on the assumption that RIRA is nothing more than an MI5 front organisation.

This is actually particularly relevant to the current conflict in Syria. Saturday's events in Londonderry certainly caught the attention of people there.

Hard as it may be to believe Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was first elected on a mandate to do a Belfast Agreement style peace deal with the Kurds and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). A group not at all dissimilar to the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA).

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) factions in the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) were committed to stopping this from happening. So they created a RIRA-style front organisation known as the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK).

Every time peace between Turkey and its Kurdish population came close TAK would suddenly pop up. To commit an atrocity so appalling it made it impossible for Erdogan to talk to the Kurds.

Eventually Erdogan decided it was more profitable to abandon the Kurds. Instead taking an extreme nationalist position to absorb the MHP into his Justice & Development Party (The AK). It is no accident the MHP front is the TAK.

In February 2016 Erdogan was desperate to invade Syria. An area which has been designated; "Garvaghy Road" for obvious reasons. So suddenly TAK re-appeared.

They supposedly carried out a bombing of a Turkish military convoy in Ankara. Which seemed like an attempt to recreate the August 1979 Warrenpoint ambush. Although I think the similar August 1988 Ballygawley ambush was being more discussed at the time.

Due to it's experience of The Troubles Britain instantly called Bullsh*t on this. However then US President Barack Obama seemed to fall for it. Allowing Erdogan to invade Garvaghy Road in August 2016. To counter the threat to Turkey of Kurdish terror.

Erdogan and MIT are still playing this game in Syria. In January 2018 Turkey invaded and continues to illegally occupy the Afrin Canton area of Syria. This sits directly to the west of the Garvaghy Road area.

Within Afrin Canton the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are conducting a PIRA/INLA style resistance against the occupying Turkish forces. As is their right.

However alongside the SDF another group calling themselves; "The Wrath of Olives Operations Room" who claim to be Kurdish. Unlike the SDF the Wrath of Olives are focused attacking civilians rather than combatants. Which seems designed to turn the local population against the SDF.

On December 12th 2018 (12/12/18) Erdogan declared that Turkey would launch an operation on December 14th (14/12/18). This would target the SDF controlled Shangri-La area which sits directly to the east of the Garvaghy Road area.

By an amazing coincidence December 12th (12/12/18) also saw a wave of five bomb attacks across Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road. The targets included the Ahli Hospital in Azaz, Garvaghy Road which killed one civilian and the main Mosque in al-Bab, which also killed one civilian.

None of these bomb attacks were carried out by the SDF. They have also not even been claimed by Wrath of Olives. Details which has not stopped Erdogan from blaming the Kurds.

Londonderry is also a very famous example of the sort of identity politics at play in Northern Ireland.

Protestants take a deep sense of their identity from the fact they are BRITISH Protestants. So to them Londonderry is most certainly LONDONderry.

Catholics take a deep sense of their identity from the fact they are IRISH Catholics. So they are keen to erase any sense of a British identity. Including, often their Protestant neighbours.

So to Catholics Londonderry is known simply as Derry.

To neutrals it is known as; "Stroke City" because it is written as; "London/Derry." And because a stroke is probably what you'll end up with trying to referee all the arguments over the name.

In discussing the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland I may have appeared to have stumbled into this argument. I referred to the airport within Londonderry as; "Derry City Airport." Appearing to take a pro-Catholic bias.

The reason why I did this is because the airport in Londonderry is officially registered as; "Derry City Airport." When I first discovered this I thought it sounded strange. So I checked twice. In a discussion about pedantic points of law I had to go with the official name.

It is also significant that the January 19th (19/1/19) Londonderry car bomb targeted the Bishop's Court House.

The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland allows for what are technically British laws to be ruled on by; "Competent British Courts." The implication from the EU being that many British Courts are incompetent.

This EU insistence on "Competent" British Courts stem almost exclusively from the actions of the British Labour Party during the August 2011. Particularly in Croydon where they used fire to destroy privately owned homes to allow their allied Notting Hill Housing Trust (NHHT) to build tower blocks in their place.

It might be the Labour Party funding NHHT which owns these voter mills. However the plots of land they stand on, the Freeholds are often still owned by the Estate of the Protestant Archbishop of Whitgift.

So the Whitgift Estate has used its influence over Britain's Courts to protect the Labour Party from prosecution. Particularly where it relates to plans to build a Westfield Shopping Mall on the site of the current Whitgift Shopping Mall.

The Labour Party's actions have of course been met with numerous, private legal challenges. In protecting the Labour Party from these legal challenges the Bishop's Courts haven't even felt the need to give even the impression of legal competence.

You can track this EU insistence on "Competent" Courts to a very specific stage of the negotiations. The point where Britain, on September 5th 2018 (5/9/18) announced that it had identified the Russian suspects in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal et al.

I've covered this here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/09/oh-dear-britains-farted.html

Britain's case against the two Russians is utterly ridiculous.

It claims the two men were administering a poison to a door handle in Salisbury on the night of March 3rd (3/5/18). When the police themselves have proved they were actually in London at the time.

It also claims the two men poisoned two other people in Salisbury on or around June 30th 2018 (30/6/18). Despite the police themselves proving that the men left the UK on March 4th (4/3/18) and have never returned.

The purpose of Britain releasing this information was not so that it would be believed. The purpose was to raise, in negotiations with the EU Britain's often less than competent Courts practice of bringing baseless, malicious prosecutions.

I, myself, was actually involved in one such case when news of Sergei Skripal's arrest in Russia broke. Back in January 2006.

I told you this case before Brighton Magistrates in Sussex dragged on until June 2006. Preventing me taking my talent for riotous assembly to the 2006 World Cup being held in Germany.

I also told you that the initial arrest occurred in August 2005. However I never got around to telling you the circumstances of the arrest.

It occurred as I was locked in the drivers cab of a Sussex Police CCTV van. As three Sussex police officers looked on from outside, growing increasingly embarrassed.

As I made no attempt to drive the vehicle away this did not constitute Taking Without Consent. Contrary to Section 12(1) of the Theft Act of 1968.

As I was not attempting to take the property I was certainly not attempting to permanently deprive the lawful owner of their property. Contrary to Section 1(2-5) of the Theft Act of 1968.

Fortunately there is no specific law against the kidnapping of police vehicles. So; "Disorderly Conduct" sounds about fair.

It was shortly after this Sussex Police decided to show off their Pig armoured Land Rover outside my house.

Normally used to guard Gatwick Airport this, of course, is the only armoured Pig Land Rover used by any police force on the British mainland. You only need to look at the coverage of the January 19th (19/1/19) Londonderry car bomb to see how widely they're used in Northern Ireland.

I think Sussex police may have decided to use a vehicle so synonymous with Northern Ireland because of Brighton's own role in The Troubles.

On October 12th 1984 (12/10/84 PIRA blew up the Brighton Grand Hotel. Nearly killing the Conservative government of the day during their annual party conference.

Sussex Police certainly didn't choose the Pig Land Rover because it's a comfortable, fast and fuel efficient vehicle.

At around 22:00 on 23/1/19 (UK date) I am frustratingly going to have to waste at least another day on this.