A direct continuation of Part Two; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/01/britains-brexit-withdrawal-agreement_11.html
In that post I looked at how Remoaners are engaged in a campaign to block Brexit. Their main tactic has been to make the Brexit process as difficult as possible. In the hope that people will simply give up.
I also looked at how this type of Remoaner is massively over represented within the British Parliament.
British Parliamentarians are absolutely terrified of power being restored to the British Parliament. It means they will actually have to do a day's work. Rather than claiming credit for laws passed by the EU.
This prospect is a particular problem for parties which appeal to voters of the grounds they are; "Progressive." Fighting to protect workers rights, social justice and the environment etc.
For the past 40 years legislation in those areas has been exclusively the work of the EU. British political parties involvement has been limited to trying to steal the credit.
Of these self-styled "progressive" parties there is one that stands to lose far more than most from Brexit.
The Scottish National Party (SNP): It's long been the claim of all opposition parties that Prime Minister May is an incompetent Prime Minister and a terrible negotiator.
In that case it is an incompetent Prime Minister and a terrible negotiator who has absolutely run rings around the SNP.
In February 2017 Britain passed the European Union Act into law. This established that Britain will be leaving the EU.
However there remained the question of when exactly Britain would put the European Union act into effect by formally notifying the EU. What is known as; "Article 50."
In early March 2017 Prime Minister May put around a rumour that this would happen on March 13th (13/3/17).
That rumour prompted SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon to try and steal Prime Minister May's thunder. Sturgeon called her own address to the nation for March 13th (13/3/17).
Sturgeon used her address to the nation to declare that post-Brexit Scotland would hold another referendum on independence from Britain. In order for an independent Scotland to join the EU.
With this declaration Nicola Sturgeon did not steal anyone's thunder.
There was no announcement on Article 50 being activated. There was never any plan for an announcement on that day. It was simply a rumour put around to trick the SNP.
Having being tricked into the announcement the SNP were then lumbered with this promise to hold a Scottish Independence referendum. As they headed into the June 2017 General Election.
That June 2017 General Election is often considered Prime Minister May's greatest mistake. Leading to her Conservative Party losing seats and even their Parliamentary majority.
In Scotland however the 2017 General Election was a massive success for the Conservative Party. And an absolute bloodbath for the SNP.
Due, almost exclusively to their Remain stance and promise of an independence referendum the SNP lost 21 of their 56 seats. With 12 of those seats being lost to the Conservatives.
Any one of those 12 seats would represent the first Conservative gain in Scotland since 1997.
Despite this crushing defeat at the 2017 General Election the SNP are still lumbered with this promise to respond to Brexit by holding a Scottish Independence referendum.
The annual budget of Scotland is around GB£33bn.
At the moment of Brexit Scotland will lose GB£76m of that money. The money which is paid to Scotland by the EU.
The moment Scotland leaves the UK, as the SNP are pushing for, it will lose the GB£29bn block grant it receives from, predominately England.
Scotland will also have to take on extra costs which are currently met by the UK. On things like defence and diplomacy. Membership fees for the UN and its subsidiary bodies etc.
This means that overnight Scotland will be paying out at least 3,000% more money than it raises in revenue.
Locked out of the international financial system an Independent Scotland will then have to go through the long process of applying to be a new member of the EU. It is far from guaranteed that such an application will be successful.
As part of their effort to block Brexit the SNP brought a case before the Court of European Justice.
It asked the Court to decide whether, once activated Article 50 could be unilaterally withdrawn. Or whether such a more would require the consent of the other members of the EU.
On December 10th (10/12/18) the Court of European Justice ruled that Article 50 can be unilaterally withdrawn.
In considering this case the Court had to balance two competing sets of interests;
The right of a nation to change it's mind and withdraw Article 50. Against the right of other members of the EU to be protected from a nation invoking then revoking Article 50. Simply as a negotiating tactic on another issue.
Within the EU there are currently a number of disputes which could see Article 50 invoked as a negotiating tactic.
There is of course the threat to suspend Hungary's voting rights. The conventional wisdom is that Poland will veto such a move. For the simple reason that Poland needs Hungary to veto a similar move to suspend Poland's voting rights.
The dispute I'm most interested in though is over Italy's budget.
EU rules prevent member states from having a budget with a deficit larger than 2%. In October 2018 the Italian government passed a budget with a deficit of 2.6%. This was rejected by the EU leading to an ongoing stand-off between Italy and the EU.
The Italian government has suggested, in the past, that it might invoke Article 50 as part of the budget dispute with the EU.
I'm particularly interested in Italy's dispute here because it allows me to say that the Court ruling will see Article 50 go up and down more often than Berlusconi's trousers.
It says a lot that the EU would rather deal with all that. Than have to deal with the SNP.
If an independent Scotland does, by some miracle, win the support of 26 EU members the conventional wisdom is that Spain will automatically veto its EU membership bid. To prevent similar moves by Spain's Catalonia region.
Even if it is accepted as an EU member the first thing Scotland will have to do is impose a long and draconian policy of austerity. In order to bring its spending deficit down from 3,000%.
So the SNP find themselves in the impossible position of having to stop Brexit. Or admit to voters that their entire reason for existing is a lie.
Whether the Withdrawal Agreement is passed or not Britain will leave the EU on March 29th (29/3/19).
This will be the end of the road for the Remoaners.
They will no longer be able to campaign to keep Britain in the EU. They will only be able to campaign for Britain to join the EU as a new member. Something which is far from guaranteed.
Given the way the British Parliament has behaved in the debate over the Withdrawal Agreement the EU may well decide that British politics is not up to the standard required of EU members.
Obviously still a draft. So more to come.
16:25 on 13/1/19 (UK date).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment