Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 1, Day 3.

My most recent post on the war in Syria was all the way back on May 4th (4/5/18). More than three months ago.

The main reason for this was the World Cup. Although I can't really complain about having to keep quiet while I watch football this did set me back quite badly.

Hosting the World Cup is obviously a matter of great prestige for any nation. The 2018 World Cup was held in Russia. I don't think it's escaped anyone's attention that Russia are a significant player in the war in Syria. So my absence during the World Cup was not totally bunking off. Just 98-99% bunking off.

The World Cup was preceded by and slightly overlapped by Ramadan. The holy Muslim month of fasting. It ends with the Eid al-Fitr which is celebrated in much the same way that Christmas is celebrated in western nations. Families gather together for a few days of public holiday which is normally spent eating all the things they've been unable to eat for the past month.

As a result this is not a period in which you would choose to launch any large military operations. Particularly in a conflict which in some ways has become a competition over who can be the most devout and extreme Muslim.

Therefore in two the three months of my absence not a great deal has happened. Certainly not compared with previous years.

At the time of my last post Syria could be roughly divided into six main areas; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland, Central Syria and the Yarmouk River Basin.

Shangri-La:

This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.

Since then operations have been focused on eliminating the small presence ISIL maintain along the northern banks of the Euphrates River and along the Iraq/Syria border. Particularly around the towns of al-Dashisha and al-Hawl.

Garvaghy Road:

This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.

It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of  the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).

The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. However in order to disguise both their and the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham.

Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include; The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.

The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely absorbed into the UTA.

Afrin Canton:
 
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.

Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.

However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.

The Sudetenland:

This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest. 

However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the dominant part of the coalition. Alongside the other elements of the Army of Conquest within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP).

Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the Sudetenland.

However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.

The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles) south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern border of the Sudetenland.

Central Syria:

The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.

Within the Central Syria there are two small pockets that remain outside of Syrian control.

The first one of these is an area of the Syrian desert around the town of al-Tanf. This remains under the partial control of ISIL.

This ISIL pocket has been created by CJTFOIR who operate a base close to al-Tanf designated; "Bobby Sands" which they use to train the Islamist Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thara (MaT).

Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.
 
The second, much larger, pocket is centred around East Ghouta. This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.

The East Ghouta area though extends into the East Qalamoun Mountains. Ruhaybah, the main town in the East Qalamoun Mountains, sits around 35km (20 miles) north-east of Duma, the main town in the East Ghouta suburb. The East Ghouta area also includes the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees which sits around 5km (3 miles) south-west of the East Ghouta suburb.

East Ghouta itself and the East Qalamoun Mountains were long under the control of the Army of Conquest. The dominant members of the coalition in the area being Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam. However their influence reduces the further you get into the East Qalamoun Mountains. An area largely controlled by small fragments of the long defunct FSA.

The Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees was long under the control of ISIL. 

Yarmouk River Basin:

This area is the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda Province. These run along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.

The Army of Conquest has a presence in the area. Again with Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam being the locally dominant factions within the coalition.

The ISIL affiliate the Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid also operate in the Yarmouk River Basin.

The main group in the area though is the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest. Backed by particularly Britain and Jordan they are a difficult group to place ideologically. So fragments are secular like the SDF. Others are deeply Islamist and owe more to the Army of Conquest.  


Tomorrow I will move on to provide a series of updates on how that situation has changed since my previous post.

17:15 on 9/8/18 (UK date).