Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 2, Day 3.

A continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/08/operation-featherweight-month-50-week-2.html

In that post I detailed how the six areas in the conflict which existed at the start of May 2018 had been reduced to five; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La is the area in the north-east of Syria controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

The boundaries of Shangri-La were properly established through the "Cizre Storm" operation which was launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border. Liberating the area from ISIL.

This was done on two main axis; One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank. One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.

On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

However on January 22nd 2018 (22/1/18) the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA) began an operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton. This is in the very north-west of Syria separated from Shangri-La by Garvaghy Road. Which is also under the occupation of the TSK and the UTA.

This Turkish operation forced the SDF to redeploy some 7,000 of their total force of around 75,000 from Shangri-La to Afrin Canton. As a result operations against ISIL within Shangri-La had to be formally suspended on March 6th (6/3/18).

On May 1st (1/5/18) anti-ISIL operations in Shangri-La. However under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."

Despite the new name the objectives of the operation are broadly the same; To liberate the remaining towns and population centres along the north bank of the Euphrates. To liberate the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.

The new operation does though bring a new approach to those objectives.

Rather than continuing to push south-east from al-Bahrah along the banks to the Euphrates the SDF instead decided to focus on the towns which sit where the river enters Iraq from Syria. With a view to advancing north-west along the river to al-Bahrah.

In the desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already been cleared of ISIL.

Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory. Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on the Syria/Iraq border.

Within this zone really the only populated area is the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area. This contains a handful of small villages and farms.

On a strategic level the most important location within the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area is the town of ad-Dashishah. This sits on the crossroad between the H715 Shadaddi Road and the Khwaibyra Road making it a critical logistics node for the area. Dashishah sits around 95km (60 miles) south-east of Hasakah City and around 10km (6 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border.

On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched their effort to liberate the desert area. This involved advancing on Dashishah and the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area on two axis.

From the west one axis set out from Shadaddi. This sits around around 40km (22 miles) west of Dashishah. From the north one axis set out from the town of al-Hawl. This sits around 55km (30 miles) north of Dashishah.

That first day of the operation the SDF advance, unopposed around 8km (5 miles) on the Shaddadi axis.

On May 4th (4/5/18) the SDF launched their effort to liberate the remaining areas on the north bank of the Euphrates.This saw them advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. The objective being to surround and liberate the towns.

The SDF also advanced Abu Hassan on the town of Hajin.This is the next town south-east of al-Bahrah sitting around 8km (5 miles) away. Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin. The objective of the SDF's advance was to cut ISIL forces north-west of Abu Hassan from ISIL forces south-east of the town stretching down to Baghuz Fawqani.

On May 11th (11/5/18) the SDF succeeded in surrounding Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani cutting them off. On May 14th (14/5/18) they liberated Baghuz Tahtani.

On May 21st (21/5/18) the SDF completed their advance on Abu Hassan. Rather than moving to liberate the town they instead moved to cut it off from Hajin. Making sure that Hajin and the near-by town of Abu al-Khatir were completely surrounded.

The river part of the operation then paused. Waiting for the completion of the desert part of the operation which was making rapid progress.

On May 8th (8/5/18) the Shadaddi axis reached and liberated the villages of Dahyim and al-Hasw with little resistance. The largest of the two al-Hasw sits at the very west of the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area along the Khwaibyra Road. Around 20km (12 miles) east of Shadaddi.

On June 5th (5/6/18) the al-Hawl axis arrived at and liberated the village of al-Faqah. Again with minimal resistance from ISIL. Al-Faqah sits around 35km (20 miles) south of al-Hawl and around 12km (7 miles) north-west of Dashishah. As part of their unopposed advance from al-Hawl the SDF also liberated the Kabibah Oil Field which sits directly north of al-Faqah.

On June 7th (7/6/18) the Shadaddi axis reached and liberated the villages of al-Marjan, Kalib, Tahtani and Khuwayra along with seven farms in the surrounding area. Marjan sits on the Khawaibyra Road around 3km (2 miles) west on al-Hasw while Khuwayra sits directly south of al-Hasw.

In liberating those areas the SDF did face resistance from ISIL. Which allowed them to kill 46 ISIL fighters including four leaders or; "Emirs."

On June 11th (11/6/18) the SDF liberated 12 villages and surrounding farms including Humaydiyah, Khumayshiyah, Hamdaniyah and al-Hulw. These sit in a cluster with Hamdaniyah at it's south-eastern tip around 6km (4 miles) north-west of Dashishah.

On June 17th (17/6/18) the SDF liberated the town Dashishah itself. Amid little-to-none ISIL resistance they were also able to liberated the town of an-Nasirah 2km (1 mile) to the south.

On June 24th (24/6/18) the SDF arrived at the Tal Safwak Checkpoint on the Syria/Iraq border. There they linked up with Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) troops having liberated some 600kmsq (360milesq) of territory.

From there the SDF advanced south clearing the remaining areas of desert. On August 4th (4/8/18) they arrived at the Azraq Oil Field which sits around 35km (20 miles) south-west of the Markadah-Buwarah Line.

This marked the completion of the first phase of Round Up.

At around 20:10 on 16/8/18 (UK date) I have a little bit more to add. Tomorrow.

Edited at around 13:25 on 17/8/18 (UK date) to add;

At the start of the Round Up operation the SDF announced that it would be coordinating with the ISF. Primarily this has taken the form of intelligence sharing and the ISF increasing their guard of the Iraq side Syria/Iraq border to prevent ISIL from fleeing the SDF into Iraq.

However this coordination has also include the Iraqi Air Force (IAF) conducting a number of airstrikes against ISIL within Syrian territory.

On May 8th (8/5/18) the IAF conducted airstrikes against ISIL in the town of Hajin. These were followed on May 14th (14/5/18) by IAF airstrikes against ISIL in Dashishah.

On May 15th (15/5/18) the IAF conducted airstrikes against ISIL in the towns of Sousa and Shajah. These are really the town main towns under ISIL control between Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani on the Syria/Iraq border and where the SDF have isolated Hajin at Abu Hassan.

On June 23rd (23/6/18) the IAF again struck ISIL in Hajin. On Thursday (16/8/18) reports started of emerge of another IAF airstrike against ISIL. At a location in Syria which is yet to be disclosed.

These Iraqi airstrikes are not what would be considered tactical air support of the SDF. That is to say that they're not being carried out to help the SDF break through ISIL's lines or help them liberate territory. Instead they are strategic airstrikes intended to target meetings of the ISIL leadership.

The June 23rd (23/6/18) airstrike on Hajin was very successful in this respect. It is believed to have killed 45 senior ISIL members as they gathered for a meeting. The May 8th (8/5/18) airstrike on Hajin is said to have targeted ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Prompting to rumours about recovered bodies awaiting identification.

The Iraqi airstrikes highlight a shift by particularly CJTFOIR from the Cizre Storm to the Round Up operation. Round Up features a much more significant focus on killing or capturing senior ISIL figures.

Aside from the airstrikes there have been a number of hush, hush reports of helicopters landing in ISIL controlled areas at night. Then following a short period of gunfire the helicopters take off again and disappear into the night.

Amongst those rumoured captured are French ISIL recruiter Adrien Guihal. Under the name Abu Osama al-Faransi he appeared in the video claiming responsibility for the July 2016 Nice attack.

Also rumoured captured is Abu Hasan al-Muhajir who has acted as ISIL's top-level spokesman since his predecessor Abu Mohammad al-Adnani was killed in CJTFOIR in August 2016. Abu Hasan al-Muhajir's true identity is not known. However some suspect him to be the US-born Muslim convert John Georgelas.

The most successful of these kill-or-capture missions occurred on or around May 10th (10/5/18).

Four top ISIL commanders including Saddam al-Jamal, Mohammad Hussain Khader and Abdul Khadir al-Zawabi were invited to a top-level meeting in Iraq. As this invitation had come from another senior ISIL leader they emerged from hiding in Syria and travelled to Iraq.

When they arrived at the meeting all they found waiting for them were the ISF who promptly took them into custody. The invitation they'd received had actually been from the ISF using information gleaned from other captured ISIL leaders.

Despite or possibly because of this success against ISIL the SDF have continued to come under attack from Turkey.

Within Shangri-La these attacks have primarily come from The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) group.

Originally operating under the name; Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa they were trained by the US at the Bobby Sands base. In June 2017 the US transferred Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa from Bobby Sands to Shangri-La where they immediately started working for the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT).

As the SDF were launching the Round Up operation on May 1st (1/5/18) HAQ/MIT assassinated the senior SDF commander Ahmad Kobani as he was travelling between Taqba and Jarniyah.

On May 2nd (2/5/18) HAQ/MIT killed the Chief Media Officer for the Democratic Union Party (PYD) Khaled Kuti with a bomb placed under his vehicle in Ayn Issa. On the same day HAQ/MIT poisoned Ibrahim al-Tayyer, the PYD's Justice Minister in Raqqa City. The PYD are one of the main political parties which helped to found the SDF.

On May 9th (9/5/18) a senior SDF intelligence officer was killed by HAQ/MIT in Hasakah. On the same day HAQ/MIT also claimed the killing of two low ranking SDF fighters at an undisclosed location in Shangri-La.

On May 25th (25/5/18) HAQ/MIT killed a fighter from the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar in Assadinah. Different from the Army of Revolutionaries based at Bobby Sands this Army of Revolutionaries is an Arab part of the SDF coalition. HAQ/MIT attempted to blame the killing on the Kurdish YPG element of the SDF and urged all the other Arab elements of the SDF to take revenge on the YPG.

On June 2nd (2/6/18) HAQ/MIT attacked civilians in Raqqa City by throwing hand grenades from a motorcycle and van at pedestrians. In response the SDF imposed a nighttime curfew in Raqqa City until June 24th (24/6/18) and conducted a series of anti-terror raids eliminating the HAQ/MIT cell.

The SDF have also come under direct attack from the regular Turkish military (TSK) in Shangri-La. On July 24th (24/7/18) TSK positions within Turkey shelled civilians in Serekanyie. This sits right on the border with Turkey around 100km (60 miles) east of where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey.

The western boundary of Shangri-La is the town of Manbij which actually sits around 30km (20 miles) west of the Euphrates. Both when his forces invaded Garvaghy Road in August 2016 and Afrin Canton in January 2019 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear his plan to attack the SDF and seize Manbij.

The US is currently implementing a so-called "Roadmap" with Turkey that will see the SDF withdraw from Manbij and Turkish forces seize the town. As part of this roadmap US forces are conducting joint-but-separate patrols with Turkish forces in the area around Manbij.

On March 26th (26/3/18) Erdogan declared his forces to be in full control of Afrin Canton. However SDF resistance has continued there.

On May 4th (4/5/18) the SDF assassinated Jamal al-Zakhool. The local official tasked with ethnically cleansing Afrin Canton by replacing the Kurdish population with Arabs and Turkmen. In the process they also killed a number of UTA fighters from the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade tasked with protecting him.

On June 13th (13/6/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division/Firqat al-Hamza brigade on the Qimara to Barada road killing three. They also ambushed a TSK patrol near Khaltah. Other TSK & UTA patrols rushed to the scene triggering a battle in which 12 of them were killed. The SDF reported no casualties

On June 24th (24/6/18) SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Levant Legion brigade on the Dewa to Tal Salour road.

On June 25th (25/6/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade in Amara. They succeeded in killing five UTA fighters while sustaining no casualties.

On June 30th (30/6/18) the SDF ambushed a joint TSK/UTA patrol in the Matabah district. Resulting in the death of one TSK soldier.

On July 1st (1/7/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade between Malikiyyah and Mariaman. Resulting in the deaths of three UTA fighters.

On July 2nd (2/7/18) the SDF ambushed a TSK patrol with a hidden roadside bomb in Mahmoudiyyah. Resulting the deaths of three TSK soldiers and leaving two more seriously wounded. On the same day SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Hamza Division brigade on the Afrin to Rajo road.

On July 3rd (3/7/18) the SDF conducted a rocket attack against the HQ of the Freemen of the East/Ahrar al-Sharqiya division in Afrin City. Resulting in unknown casualties and significant damage to the building.

On July 5th (5/7/18) SDF's snipers shot and killed a sentry at a UTA base located between Jinderes and Atma.

On July 6th (6/7/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division brigade on the Rajo to Afrin road. Resulting in the deaths of three UTA fighters.

In response to the rising death toll on July 7th (7/7/18) the TSK and UTA conducted an operation against the SDF in Shadiya. Having being informed of the SDF's location by a local resident. The ensuing battle lasted for five hours and resulted in the deaths of three UTA fighters and two members of the SDF.

The raid on Shadiya however did not seem to inhibit the SDF's operations. In response on July 7th (7/7/18) raid the SDF;

Bombed a UTA checkpoint at Mount Busaraya killing two UTA fighters. Ambushed a TSK patrol in Rajo killing two TSK soldiers. Conducted a targeted assassination of Mohammad al-Soulieman, commander of the UTA's self-styled "Elite Unit" in Bulbul.

On July 8th (8/7/18) the SDF used a hidden roadside bomb to ambush a joint TSK/UTA patrol in Mabata district. Resulting of the deaths of one UTA fighter and one TSK soldier.

On July 28th (28/7/18) the SDF conducted a raid on a base belonging to the UTA's Sultan Murad

On July 29th (29/7/18) the SDF ambushed an Ahrar al-Sham vehicle on the Faferteen to Burj Haider road causing unknown casualties. Although not officially under Turkish command Ahrar al-Sham are allied with the UTA through the Army of Conquest coalition.

On July 30th (30/7/18) the SDF used a roadside bomb to ambush a joint TSK/UTA patrol at Basutah. Resulting in the deaths of one Turkish soldier and four fighters from the UTA's Hamza Division brigade.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) the SDF ambushed a joint TSK/UTA patrol at Kimara. Resulting in the deaths of one TSK soldier and four UTA fighters.

At around 15:45 on 17/8/18 (UK date) I've still got more to add to this. Later.

Edited at around 15:10 on 18/8/18 (UK date) to add;

Despite its name Turkey has struggled to keep the UTA united.

Even Erdogan apologists such as Human Rights Watch have been forced to concede that the Turkish occupation of Afrin Canton has been an orgy of torture, murder and pillaging. The looting in particular has triggered infighting amongst different UTA brigades over the spoils.

On May 2nd (2/5/18) the Sultan Mehmed and Muntassir Bilah brigades of the UTA clashed in the village of Ba'adanhi in a dispute over the proceeds of their pillaging. Particularly civilians homes which they had seized after expelling their Kurdish owners.

On May 3rd (3/5/18) there were similar clashes in Jinderes. This time between Ahrar al-Sham and the Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade of the UTA.

On May 8th (8/5/18) the Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade of the UTA clashed with members of the Waki Clan in al-Bab as they attempted to loot the clan's property. The fighting became so serious that the TSK's 3rd Corp had to enter the town to act as peacekeepers between the two factions.

On June 27th (27/6/18) the Levant Front and Liwa al-Mutasim/Mutasim Brigade brigades of the UTA clashed within Afrin City. The following day the Mutasim Brigade bombed the Levant Front's HQ and then bombed the Dersim Hospital as it was treating victims of the first bombing.

Keen to cover up the division and violence amongst their ranks and smear the SDF the Turks attempted to blame the June 27th (27/6/18) Afrin City bombings on a previously unheard of Kurdish group called the Afrin Falcons. Who seem remarkably similar to the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK).

When he rose to power Erdogan did so with support of Turkey's Kurdish population. Primarily on a promise of a permanent peace agreement with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

In order to block this Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) supporting members of the Turkish intelligence service (MIT) invented TAK. Every time Erdogan threatened to negotiate with the PKK the TAK would conduct an atrocity. Making peace talks with Kurdish militants politically impossible.

Of course since then Erdogan has declared war on Turkey's Kurdish population and allied himself with the MHP. To the point that the MHP have now been almost fully absorbed into Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP).

The UTA are an extension of the MHP's paramilitary wing the Grey Wolves. However in an effort to disguise that fact the UTA have recently started insisting on being called the Syrian National Army. Which will get complicated if they ever fight the existing Syrian National Army.

Following the Syrians victory in the Yarmouk River Basin area Erdogan's continued occupation of Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road has become an urgent strategic threat. To CJTFOIR and anyone who wants to bring democratic change to Syria.

Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have the Sudetenland. Following victory in the Yarmouk River Basin area Syrian forces are now massed at the southern border of the Sudetenland with an operation to liberate the area seeming imminent.

There is absolutely no suggestion that the Army of Conquest coalition that currently occupy the Sudetenland under Turkish protection can continue to do so.

The largest of these groups is The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra. They are joined by the Turkestan Islamist Party (TiP) who part of the original Al Qaeda generation dating back to before the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) attacks.

There are multiple UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolutions forbidding the granting of Al Qaeda safe haven in any nation. Within Syria it is specifically forbidden under UNSC Resolution 2170. The Chapter 7 resolution authorising military force.

The other members of the Army of Conquest coalition in the Sudetenland are arguable worse than Al Qaeda.

Having flooded the area following their defeats in East Ghouta and the Yarmouk River Basin one of the largest factions in the Sudetenland are the Army of Islam. They are a proudly genocidal group who consider ISIL too moderate. They have even executed members of ISIL for being too moderate.

Another of the large groups within the Sudetenland are Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki. The Butchers of East Aleppo Harakat al-Zinki are probably most famous for their use of the child Omran Daqneesh in their propaganda.

However Harakat al-Zinki are best defined by another photograph taken by Mahmoud Raslan - the Harakat al-Zinki photographer who took the Omran Daqneesh photograph.

It shows Raslan and other members of Harakat al-Zinki smiling as they proudly pose on a pick-up with the body of a 14 year old boy they'd just beheaded. Simply because he followed a slightly different version of Islam than Harakat al-Zinki's extreme and warped version.

The violence of Harakat al-Zinki shown in this photograph and elsewhere is not an airstrike gone astray or a burst of machine gun fire. It is taking a knife in your hand and sawing away at the throat of a child. Simply because you want to exterminate all those who disagree with you.

In an effort to hide their links to Al Qaeda and as a precursor to them being formally absorped into the UTA the Army of Islam, Harakat al-Zinki and other elements of the Army of Conquest have started insisting that people call them the National Liberation Front.

For as long as the Sudetenland is under occupation the path to a political solution to the conflict is blocked. There is certainly no suggestion that you can give groups like Al Qaeda, the Army of Islam and Harakat al-Zinki a say in how Syria or any other country is run.

Ideally what would have happened by now is that the SDF would have linked Shangri-La and Afrin Canton by taking control of Garvaghy Road. Even without Garvaghy Road under their control the SDF would still have been able to advance south from Afrin Canton to liberate the Sudetenland.

However with time running out that is simply not possible. Afrin Canton is under the occupation of Turkish forces.

As a result the only people currently placed to liberate the Sudetenland are the Syrians. If they achieve that there is certainly no reason for them to stop until the have also liberated Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road. Right up to the western boundary of Shangri-La at Manbij.

The Syrian government has always treated its Kurdish areas with a sort of benign neglect. For example in the past they have refused to grant Kurds Syrian citizenship. This has helped foster a sense of Kurdish rather than Syrian nationality.

As a result Syria's Kurdish regions have always seemed Kurdish first and Syrian second. Separate from the rest of the country. With the Syrians not desperate to bring the Kurdish areas back under their control the only real leverage the SDF hold in negotiations with the Syrian governments are the Oil & Gas Fields in the south-east corner of Shangri-La.

The areas where these Oil & Gas Fields are located are definitely Arab rather than Kurdish. Even bringing the majority Kurdish fighters of the SDF down into this area to defeat ISIL has required some extremely delicate diplomacy and negotiations. Mainly based on the principle that the Kurds will soon leave.

Amid these delicate compromises significant and sometimes violent fractures seem ever present.

On March 26th (26/3/18) the SDF arrested Bashir al-Hamdan al-Hamshar, leader of the Bani Said Tribe. This brought almost the entire tribe out in protest against the SDF Mansoura. Forcing the SDF to back down and release Bashir al-Hamdan al-Hamshar.

The following day (27/3/18) SDF intelligence officer Salah al-Mohammad was found dead. Believed killed by the Bani Said Tribe during the protests.

These tension reemerged in late April when a member of the Bani Said Tribe was found dead. On April 24th (24/4/18) HAQ/MIT who probably carried out the killing released a statement blaming it on SDF (which they described as the PKK) and pledged to carry out revenge killings against the SDF on behalf of the tribe.

In order to smooth over then tensions caused by this incident the SDF were forced to release 108 ISIL prisoners into the custody of the Bani Said Tribe. The tribe of which they are members.

The Shaitat Tribe which controls the area containing the area containing the majority of the Oil & Gas Fields have always been strongly loyal to the Syrian government. Syrian forces are just across the Euphrates from the Shaitat Tribal area in towns such as ad-Duwayr.

As a result if Shangri-La becomes isolated as the only area outside of Syrian control I can see the fragile coalition between the SDF and the Arab tribes collapsing very rapidly. Syria and Iran have certainly been working to speed up that process. On May 3rd (3/5/18) the leaders of the Arab tribes in Shangri-La travelled to Iran to meet with no less than the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Once the SDF lose the support of the Arab Tribes and control of the Oil & Gas Fields that means the end to any chance of a negotiated solution to the conflict or democratic change in Syria. 

17:05 on 18/8/18 (UK date).