Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 4, Day 3

A continuation of Monday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/operation-featherweight-month-46-week-4.html

In that post I covered Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton.

It almost goes without saying that Erdogan's attack on the SDF in Afrin Canton has negatively affected the SDF's fight against ISIL within Shangri-La.

On the most obvious level the attack on Afrin Canton has forced the SDF to transfer some 6,700 of its total force of around 75,000 from Shangri-La to Afrin Canton. Those 6,700 members of the SDF then cannot be used to fight ISIL in Shangri-La.

Operations in Shangri-La have also been hampered by the fact that Erdogan has made clear that his territorial ambitions do not end in Afrin Canton. Following victory there he wishes to attack the SDF in Shangri-La and annex that territory too.

Erdogan's immediate focus has been on the town of Manbij. This sits on the western bank of the Euphrates River around 40km (25 miles) south of Jarablus which is currently under Turkish occupation.

On March 12th (12/3/18) Turkey announced that it had reached an agreement with then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. This would see the SDF withdraw from Manbij and Turkish forces take control of the town.

However the following day (13/3/18) Rex Tillerson was fired as US Secretary of State. The status of Turkey's claimed deal over Manbij has been unresolved while Tillerson's replacement Mike Pompeo was waiting to be confirmed as the new US Secretary of State.

In this time Erdogan has been aggressively posturing towards not just Manbij but Shangri-La as a whole. For example on March 22nd (22/3/18) the regular Turkish military (TSK) removed sections of the border wall at the town of Serekaniye/Tal Abyad.

Serekaniye/Tal Abyad sits on Syria's border with Turkey around 100km (60 miles) east of the Euphrates River. Well inside of Shangri-La. This removal of sections of the border wall was seen in Afrin Canton and is viewed as a precursor to Turkish military action.

As a result of these threats the SDF have had to redeploy its existing force within Shangri-La to both the area's northern border with Turkey and its western area boundary with Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road.

Alongside Turkish aggression the SDF within Shangri-La have also had to contend with problems entirely of America's making.

On February 8th (8/2/18) the US-led coalition - Combined Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - conducted several hours of airstrikes against Syrian forces in the vicinity of Deir-ez-Zour City. This sits on the south bank of the Euphrates around 160km (95 miles) north-west of Syria's border with Iraq and around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River.

These airstrikes were just the first step in what these days would be increasingly called a; "Sharp Power" operation against Russia. The strikes were followed up by US spy networks within Russia spreading fake news claiming thousands of Russian troops had been killed in the strikes. The intention being to destabilise Russia just ahead of its March 18th (18/3/18) election.

US President Trump embarked on this fools errand to show that he was tough on Russia. Amid continuing conspiracy theories circulated by the US Democrat Party that Trump was somehow in collusion with Russia.

The effect of the strikes was to totally destroy the very fragile trust which has existed between the CJTFOIR backed SDF and the Syrians. It was this trust that had allowed the SDF to nearly defeat ISIL north of the Euphrates while the Syrians came near to defeating ISIL south of the Euphrates.

The destruction of that trust led to near daily clashes between the Syrians and the SDF for almost the next month. Although small scale these skirmishes distracted both the Syrians and the SDF from the fight against ISIL. In fact they only ended in mid-to-late March when ISIL became able to launch sustained attacks against the Syrians.

The other problem of America's creation is really a throw back to their former Democrat President Barack Obama.

Under instruction from Erdogan in late 2016 former President Obama set about trying to destroy the SDF from within. This involved establishing a rival command structure within the SDF - the Syrian Arab Council (SAC). The ranks of the SAC were then stuffed with Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) which the US rushed to train and arm.

Sadly this Obama policy continued under President Trump.

The problems with the SAC were on display for all to see during the early days of the SDF's Cizre Storm operation. Upon arriving at the Industrial Zone of Deir-ez-Zour the self-proclaimed "Syrian Elite Forces (SEF)" refused to advance any further. Instead they wanted CJTFOIR's support in rejoining their old allies ISIL in fighting the Syrians.

A particularly problematic group have been the Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa. These were trained by the US at the Bobby Sands base near al-Tanf. When al-Tanf was liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in June 2017 the US transferred Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa from Bobby Sands to Shangri-La.

On arrival in Shangri-La Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa immediately changed their name to The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) and began launching attacks against the SDF. It is clear to all that despite claiming to be a Syrian Arab force Harakat al-Qiyam's first language is Turkish.

Since Turkey's attack on the SDF in Afrin Canton began Harakat al-Qyiam's attacks on the SDF in Shangri-La have increased dramatically.

On February 19th (19/2/18) the HAQ conducted an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack in Qamishli. Considered the de facto capital of Shangri-La Qamishli sits around 120km (70 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 360km (215 miles) east of the Euphrates. In this early attack no-one was killed.

On March 15th (15/3/18) Omar Alloush was assassinated by the HAQ in his home in Serekaniye/Tal Abyad. A Kurd Alloush had been a senior official in the Raqqa Civil Council. A multi-ethnic body established to administer the recently liberated city of Raqqa.

On March 22nd (22/3/18) an SDF commander was shot and killed by the HAQ in Hasakah. This sits around 100km (60 miles) south-west of Qamishli and around 65km (40 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border.

On April 4th (4/4/18) the HAQ claimed to have killed four high ranking members of the SDF. However they offered no locations for or identities of those killed.

On April 5th (5/4/18) the HAQ released video which it claimed to show the killing of two members of the SDF. However again they offered no locations for or identities of those killed.

On April 12th (12/4/18) the HAQ claimed the killing of a high ranking member of the SDF in an IED attack in Manbij.

On April 15th (15/4/18) the HAQ tried and failed to kill an SDF officer in Manbij. One member of the HAQ was killed during the failed attempt.

On April 17th (17/4/18) the HAQ claimed to have killed two members of the SDF in Manbij.

On April 18th (18/4/18) the HAQ claimed the killing of three members of the SDF in an IED attack in Manbij,

On March 29th (29/3/18) Britain saw its first combat death in Syria. Special Operations Force (SOF) Sergeant Matthew Tonroe of Manchester was killed alongside US SOF Master Sergeant Jonathan Dunbar of Texas were killed in Manbij.

Officially the deaths alongside members of the SDF occurred during an operation to capture a senior ISIL leader.

However that is very different from the version I have heard from sources on the ground. Instead the deaths were the result of an IED ambush on vehicles the men were travelling in. The IED had been planted by the HAQ.

The March 29th (29/3/18) deaths triggered a flurry of activity. Largely centred around buses.

This began with a fire aboard a shuttle bus at Standstead Airport in Essex, UK on March 30th (30/3/18). This forced the partial closure of the airport causing widespread disruption during the peak Easter Weekend travel period.

Alongside the obvious references to the May 22nd 2019 (22/5/17) Manchester Evening News Arena (MENA) bombing this invoked memories of the June 30th 2007 (30/6/07) failed Islamist terror attack on Glasgow Airport in Glasgow, UK. Led by the comedian Frankie Boyle people responded to that failed attack by pointing out that if a Muslim wishes to try and bring religious hatred to Glasgow we can really only wish them luck.

April 5th (5/4/18) saw Manchester City play Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals. It also saw the Manchester City team bus attacked by Liverpool fans outside the ground prior to the match.

This invoked memories of the May 11th 2016 (11/5/16) match between Manchester United and West Ham United. The last ever match played at West Ham's Boleyn Ground this saw the Manchester United team bus attacked by West Ham fans outside the ground prior to the match. Amongst other things this was part of a series of warnings for England fans not to pick fights with Russia fans ahead of the 2016 European Football Cup.

The April 5th (5/4/18) incident was also the first bus incident people seemed to notice.

On April 6th (6/4/18) Irish Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighter Conor McGregor attacked a bus containing - amongst others - his Russian rival Khabib Nurmagomedov in New York City, US. Although primarily an enquiry the US organisers of UFC along with New York City's Police and Courts seemed to view an Irish attack on a bus as a bad thing.

On April 7th (7/4/18) 15 people were killed when a bus carrying the Humboldt Broncos junior Ice Hockey team crashed in Saskatchewan. In the UK Commonwealth Realm nation of Canada.

By an amazing coincidence many of those injured were treated by Doctor Hassan Masri. He had previously worked providing medical support to Islamists terror groups in Syria in places such as East Ghouta. As seems to be a reflex he described the bus crash as an airstrike.

The Saskatchewan bus crash showed just how out of touch with reality Canada has become under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He assumed all the talk about buses was due to a concern for the Army of Islam fighters who were being removed from East Ghouta by bus at the time. Former US President Obama of course once described ISIL as a; "Junior Varsity (JV) Team."

On the topic of people getting things just horribly wrong this all occurred against the backdrop of the March 4th (4/4/18) poisoning of the Skripals in the British city of Salisbury.

The one thing that has been proved about the Skripal poisoning is that Russia did not do it. The intelligence the British government used to blame Russia has been proven to be false. By Britain itself.

The British government's decision to blame Russia for the Skripal poisoning came at a time when Britain was very reliant on Russia for its security. Both by helping the Syrians defeat ISIL south of the Euphrates and by putting pressure on Erdogan to end his aggression in both Afrin Canton and Shangri-La.

By falsely blaming Russia for the Skripal poisoning and leading a mass expulsion of Russian diplomats in response Britain significantly undermined Russia's ability protect Britain's security. It certainly removed its incentive to do so.

The British government has of course repeatedly stated that the only plausible explanation for the Skripal poisoning is that Russia did it. Looking at Syria I can't help but notice that Erdogan has a significant motive.

As a result the Commonwealth Games and subsequent Commonwealth Heads of Government Summit has been gripped by a discussion of how the current British government made up of the Conservative or "Tory" Party could get its response to the Skripal poisoning so wrong.

The so-called "Windrush Scandal" about the British government wrongly expelling people from the country has already claimed the scalp of the British Secretary of State for Home Affairs (Senior Interior Minister) Amber Rudd.

At around 17:00 on 2/5/18 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:05 on 2/5/18 (UK date) to add;

To see how Britain's Tory government managed to get its response to the Skripal poisoning so badly wrong you really need to look no further then a man named Bill Browder.

Bill Browder is a US born investment banker and multi-millionaire. In 1998 the US reasonably demanded that Browder pay tax on his earnings. Browder's response was to give up his US citizenship citing; "bad feeling about the rule of law (in the US)."

Having been awarded British citizenship Browder moved his business almost exclusively to Russia. In 2005 Russia reasonably demanded that Browder pay tax on his earnings. When Browder refused Russia expelled him from the country.

As part of the investigation into Browder's tax evasion his Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was arrested in 2008. He died in prison in late 2009. Browder declared that this gave him; "bad feelings about the rule of law (in Russia)." 

In 2011 Bill Browder's luck came in when the conflict began in Syria. This saw the US under former President Obama try to overthrow the Syrian government supported by Russia.

Obviously the US attempting to overthrow the Syrian government is wholly illegal. That meant that Obama couldn't impose sanctions on Russia for blocking his illegal activities. So instead Obama turned to Browder and imposed sanctions on Russia under the guise of the Magnitsky Act.

This was great news for Browder. Rather than asking why he wasn't paying tax western governments were falling over themselves to put their support behind Browder's efforts to seek revenge on Russia for demanding that he paid tax.

Browder has been a big donor to the British Tory Party. In return he wants the Tory government to introduce what is known as the Magnitsky Amendment. Essentially this will apply the sanctions of the Magnitsky Act to Russians doing business with the UK.

The British government's security council met to assess the Skripal poisoning on March 12th (12/3/18). This meeting resulted in Britain formally and falsely blaming Russia.

Within the British Tory Party one of the main recipients of Browder's money is Thomas Tugendhat. A backbench MP who has no role in the cabinet or security council. In return for his money Tugendhat is the main sponsor of Browder's Magnitsky Amendment.

Over the weekend leading up to the March 12th (12/318) meeting Tugendhat was bombarding journalists and TV studios. This included multiple appearances on the prestige Sunday morning political discussion shows which like to think they set the political agenda for the coming week.

Tugendhat's mantra for this media blitz was that he "EXPECTS!" the Prime Minister Theresa May to blame Russia for the Skripal poisoning. Regardless of what information was provided at the upcoming security council meeting.

Prime Minister May is in a very weak position. She leads a government which does not have the Parliamentary majority it needs to govern.

As such you can't help but think that Prime Minister May's judgement in the Skripal case was clouded by the clarion call coming from the likes of Tugendhat. And by extension Bill Browder.

Bill Browder's poisonous effect on democracy is felt not just in the US and Britain.

In 2016 the Canadian government refused to introduce a Canadian version of Browder's Magnitsky Amendment. Browder's response was to openly threaten Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.

If the Magnitsky Amendment was not introduced Browder would use his wealth to mobilise Canada's Ukrainian ex-pat community against the incumbent Foreign Minister Stephane Dion and Trudeau's government.

In response to this threat Prime Minister Trudeau crumpled. Dion was sacked and replaced with Browder approved Chrystia Freeland. One of her first acts as Foreign Minister was to introduce Browder's Magnitsky Amendment.

Perhaps it is Freeland's poor grasp of foreign affairs that led to Canada getting the discussion about buses so horribly wrong.

19:50 on 2/5/18 (UK date).