Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 4, Day 1

Within Syria there are really five key areas; Shangri-La. Garvaghy Road. Afrin Canton. The Sudetenland. East Ghouta. 

Shangri-La:

This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.

As a result ISIL maintain a small presence within Shangri-La. Both along the northern bank of the Euphrates River and the desert area along the Syria/Iraq border.

The area on the southern bank of the Euphrates is under the control of the Syrians themselves. They are backed by longstanding allies Russia and Iran alongside the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.

What allowed the Syrians to liberate the southern bank of the Euphrates was a nearly year long operation clearing ISIL from the centre of Syria. Both to the north and the south.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra of course had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

Therefore it is reasonable to describe everything in the centre of Syria between Damascus/Aleppo City and the Euphrates River as being under Syrian control.

The exception is a small area around al-Tanf. This is home to a CJTFOIR base designated; "Bobby Sands."

Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.

As a result a small ISIL presence persists in and around al-Tanf. 

Garvaghy Road:

This sits to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.

It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016. It remains under the illegal occupation of both the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

As part of the occupation of Garvaghy Road the UTA have been steadily absorbing both ISIL and Al Qaeda fighters into their ranks alongside Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA.

Afrin Canton:

Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west. In February 2018 it was under the control of the SDF.

The Sudetenland:

This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.

The Sudetenland is the heartland of Al Qaeda in Syria.

However in order to disguise their true identity Al Qaeda have formed a coalition with a number of Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA. One of these largest FSA fragments are the astonishingly brutal Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zenki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki.

Although they are currently in the process of creating a new identity this group currently likes to be known as The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters.

Dividing Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland you have an area known as the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area."

This contains 10 control points belonging to the regular Turkish military. These effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.

East Ghouta:

This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.

In February 2018 East Ghouta was under the control of several Islamist groups operating in cooperation with each other.

One of the largest of these groups is the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR).

Another large group is Al Qaeda operating under the name; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

In November 2017 Al Qaeda in East Ghouta formed a formal coalition calling itself the; Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad.

Al Qaeda's partner in the Army of Mohammad are the largest group operating in East Ghouta. The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).

In my previous series of posts I detailed how East Ghouta had been liberated by the Syrians. The operation began on or around February 22nd (22/2/18). It was completed on or around April 7th (7/4/18).

The end of the Battle of East Ghouta saw Faylaq al-Rahman transfer to Afrin Canton on April 3rd (3/4/18). The Army of Islam transferred to Garvaghy Road on April 7th(7/4/18).

On January 22nd (22/1/18) the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA) began an operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton.

Codenamed; "Olive Branch" this operation was intended to annex Afrin Canton just as Turkey had annexed Garvaghy Road in August 2016.

This operation saw Turkish forces operated on five axis or "branches." To the east, the north-east, the north-west, the south-west and the south.

On February 11th (11/2/18) the south and south-west axis united while avoiding the town of Jinderes.

On February 15th (15/2/18) the south-west and north-west axis united while avoiding the town of Rajo.

On February 20th (20/2/18) the east and north-east axis united.
 
On February 26th (26/2/18) the north-east and north-west axis united between the towns of Bulbul and Rajo.

On March 2nd (2/3/18) Turkish forces launched an operation to capture Rajo. This town sits in the north-west of Afrin Canton around 30km (20 miles) north-west of Afrin City.

By March 5th (5/3/18) Turkish forces had captured Rajo.

On March 8th (8/3/18) Turkish launched an operation to capture Jinderes. The largest town in south-west Afrin Canton Jinderes sits around 25km (15 miles) south-west of Afrin City. Jinderes was captured the same day.

On March 12th (12/3/18) Turkish forces arrive at the outskirts of Afrin City itself. This prompted a mass exodus of civilians from the city fleeing a looming Turkish occupation.

As the human exodus from Afrin Canton continued Turkish forces began shelling the city on March 14th (14/3/18).

These air and artillery strikes continued for four days claiming many casualties. Including on March 16th (16/4/18) British volunteer with the SDF Anna Campbell aged 26 from Sussex.

On March 18th (18/4/18) Turkish forces launched an operation to capture Afrin City itself. In response the SDF melted away. This allowed Turkish forces to capture Afrin City the same day.

As the effective capital and last remaining population centre under SDF control the capture of Afrin City allowed Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to declare Operation Olive Branch completed on March 18th (18/3/18).

March 18th is a significant day within Turkey. Known as "Canakkale Day" or "Martyrs Day" it marks the Ottoman Empire's victory at the Battle of Canakkale during what is known amongst the allied forces as the Gallipoli Campaign. This was the Ottoman Empire's sole victory in World War One.

Following the declaration of victory Turkey has moved to permanently establish Afrin Canton as part of Turkish territory.

On February 26th (26/2/18) the United Turkmen Army (UTA) established a; "Kurdish Falcons Brigade." This is made up of members of the Kurdish Islamist Movement (KIM), a Kurdish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood which has long been known fight alongside ISIL.

Afrin's Kurds have been urged to join the UTA's Kurdish Falcon's Brigade by Muslim Brotherhood run Syrian Islamic Council (SIC). On February 28th (28/2/18) they issued a Fatwa calling on Kurdish Muslims to fight the SDF which it labelled as a puppet of the Crusader Americans.

The Turkish occupiers have also attempted to form a Vichy-style local government of collaborators. This is made up almost exclusively of the Syrian National Council (ENKS).

The ENKS are little more than an extension of Iraqi Kurdish Barzani clan. It was formed in late 2016 as part of former US President Barack Obama's last gasp plan to undermine the SDF before leaving office.

The ENKS paramilitary wing the Roj Peshmega has long fought on behalf of Turkey. Most notably in March 2017 when they attacked the Yezidi Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) in the Sinjar/Shingal region of Iraq's Kurdish Region.

In December 2017 elections were held in both Afrin Canton an Shangri-La. Due to their immense unpopularity the ENKS boycotted those elections to avoid a crushing defeat.

On April 12th (12/4/18) Turkey formally unveiled its Vichy Council for Afrin Canton. It is made up of 11 ENKS Kurds, 8 Arabs and unsurprisingly an ethnic Turk. Members of the Yezidi religion are entirely excluded from the council.

Turkey's efforts to subdue Afrin Canton have been hampered by the brutality of the UTA. Since taking control of particularly Afrin City they have engaged in an orgy of looting and ransacking. Particularly targeting Kurds and Yezidis they have stolen or destroyed large amounts of civilian property.

Turkey's efforts to subjugate Afrin Canton have also been hampered by a guerrilla campaign by the SDF.

On March 22nd (22/3/18) the SDF carried out twin bombings killing TSK soldiers in Afrin City and the town of Bulbul.

On March 28th (28/3/18) the SDF conducted an attack on a base in Rajo killing seven members of the UTA. They were also able to conduct an ambush on a convoy in the Jinderes to Afrin City road which killed two members of the regular Turkish military.

On April 3rd (3/4/18) the SDF destroyed a TSK tank close to Bulbul. This resulted in the deaths of four members of the regular Turkish military.

Alongside the SDF's guerrilla campaign there have also been a number of mysterious bombings in the Afrin Canton/Garvaghy Road area.

On March 19th (19/3/18) there was a car bombing in Jarablus. The town right on the eastern boundary of Garvaghy Road where it meets Shangri-La.

On April 7th (7/4/18) a motorcycle bomb struck outside the main Mosque in al-Bab killing at least seven civilians. Al-Bab sits on the southern boundary of Garvaghy Road around 85km (50 miles) south-west of Jarablus.

On April 8th (8/4/18) there was similarly unclaimed bomb attack with Afrin City. There were no reported casualties.

On April 12th (12/4/18) a car bomb targeted in the main Mosque in Azaz. This sits on the western boundary of Garvaghy Road where it meets Afrin Canton. Around 25km (15 miles) north-east of Afrin City. Again there were no reported casualties.

Unlike the SDF's guerrilla campaign these bombings have all been aimed at civilian targets. Particularly Mosques which should be treated with proper reverence and respect.

Therefore it seems likely that these bombings are being conducted by the Turkish forces. The hope being to portray them as being part of the SDF's guerrilla campaign in order to turn the local population against the SDF.

Following the capture of Afrin City on March 18th (18/3/18) there was one last major town in Afrin Canton outside of Turkish control. Tal Rifaat.

Tel Rifaat sits around 20km (10 miles) east of Afrin City. It also sits around 10km (6 miles) west of Marea. Along with Azaz the town of Marea marks the boundary between Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road.

Tal Rifaat also sits around 15km (10 miles) north-east of the twin towns of Nubbol and Zahraa. This have long been under the control of the Syrians themselves.

On February 22nd (22/2/18) the Syrians took control of the Ziyarah Checkpoint which controls access between Afrin City and Tal Rifaat. This would make it impossible for Turkish forces to capture Tal Rifaat without clashing with Syrian forces.

Initially Turkish forces did not seem to fear such a confrontation. Their response to the Syrians taking control of the Ziyarah Checkpoint was to conduct an airstrike against a humanitarian convoy at the checkpoint on February 23rd (23/2/18).

Turkish forces also did not seem to initially fear Russian forces. On February 26th (26/2/18) the TSK conducted a mortar attack on Tal Rifaat which killed a member of the Russian military police.

On March 12th (12/3/18) the Syrians increased their control of the area between Afrin City and Tal Rifaat. They took control of the Menagh Air Base. This sits around 15km (10 miles) east of Afrin City and around 10km (6 miles) north of Tal Rifaat.

Turkish forces response was to conduct airstrikes against the Ziyarah Checkpoint on March 14th (14/3/18). This prompted the Syrians to shell Marea in retaliation.

Following the capture on March 18th (18/3/18) of Afrin City Turkish forces made clear their intention to capture Tal Rifaat.

On March 20th (20/3/18) Turkish forces captured the villages of Kufayr, Ain Dara and Basutah. These all sit directly to the south of Afrin City around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Nubbol and Zahraa.

Turkish forces also dispatched reconnaissance convoys to establish control points around Anadan and Hayyan. These sit around 10km (6 miles) south of Nubbol and Zahraa.

Syrian forces responded by shelling the Turkish reconnaissance convoys forcing them to withdraw. In retaliation Turkish forces conducted airstrikes against Syrian forces in Nubbol and Zahraa and at the Nayrab Air Base in Aleppo City.

On March 21st (21/3/18) Turkish forces continued their advance on Nubbol and Zahraa capturing mountains around Kimar and Barad. These sit between 5km (3 miles) and 10km (6 miles) west of Nubbol and Zahraa.

On March 22nd (22/3/18) Turkish forces captured Ba'ay and Basufan. These both sit around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Nubbol and Zahraa.

Crucially Ba'ay and Basufan also sit within the Simeon Highlands mountain range. This is part of the Sudetenland's Atmeh-Salwa Access Area where Turkish forces already control 10 small bases or; "Control Points."

The continued advances by Turkish forces were accompanied by tit-for-tat shelling and airstrikes between Turkish and Syrian forces. Particularly centred around Nubbol and Zahraa.

On March 27th (27/3/18) Turkish forces actually declared that they had captured Tal Rifaat. However they immediately retracted that claim. Instead declaring that through Russia they were in negotiations with the Syrians over control of the town.

Those negotiations appear to be ongoing. However the capture of Ba'ay and Basufan seem to make Tal Rifaat of less immediate importance to Turkish forces.

By entering the Simeon Highlands Turkish forces have established direct contact with their bases in the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area. They now seem to be interested in expanding direct Turkish military control over the entire Sudetenland area.

By an amazing coincidence the Turkish sponsored Political Committee of Idlib and the Turkish sponsored Civilian Council of Idlib demanded Turkish forces do just that on March 28th (28/3/18).

Turkish forces were quick to respond to that "popular" demand for "humanitarian intervention."

On April 3rd (3/4/18) they conducted reconnaissance patrols in Khan Shiekhoun, Morek, Lataminah and the Ghab Plains with a view to establishing regular Turkish military bases or; "Control Points."

Khan Shiekhoun, Morek and Lataminah all sit at the absolute southern boundary of the Sudetenland. Around 100km (60 miles) north of Hama City. In fact they sit around 60km (35 miles) miles south-west of Saraqib which was liberated by the Syrians back in January 2018.

The capture of Ba'ay and Basufan places the northern Sudetenland, Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road under direct Turkish occupation. If Turkish forces are able to advance south to Lataminah it will place all of the Sudetenland under direct Turkish occupation.

As such it might be time to abandon the designations; "Sudetenland," "Afrin Canton" and "Garvaghy Road. Instead referring to them all as part of the Sudetenland.

However I hesitate to do so because I certainly do not wish to legitimise Turkey's wholly illegal annexation of Syrian territory.


17:40 on 3-/4/18 (UK date).