Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 4, Day 5.

A direct continuation of Thursday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/05/operation-featherweight-month-46-week-4_3.html

In that post I covered how through a number of factors the pressure has been lifted from ISIL around the Euphrates River. Both from the SDF to the north and from the Syrians to the south. This has allowed to regroup, reenergise and once again pose a threat.

On March 7th (7/3/18) ISIL fighters in the no-man's land around Bobby Sands started to shell Syrian positions at Ghabrah. This sits on the south bank of the Euphrates around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal/Al Bukamal.

In response the Syrians conducted airstrikes in the vicinity of Bobby Sands on March 14th (14/3/18). The US' response was to move Maghawir al-Thawra into position to protect ISIL from the Syrians. 

On March 19th (19/3/18) ISIL forces around Bobby Sands launched an attack against the Syrians at the T2 Air Base. This is located around 65km (40 miles) west of Abu Kamal and around 170km (100 miles) east of Palmyra. These attacks were coordinated with ISIL attacks on Syrian forces at Abu Kamal itself.

ISIL's attacks on the T2 Air Base continued into the following day (20/3/18). This prompted the Syrians to conduct airstrikes on ISIL positions close to the T2 Air Base.

On March 26th (26/3/18) CJTFOIR decided to conduct strikes against the Syrians in the vicinity of Khusham. This sits on the north bank of the Euphrates around 10km (6 miles) south-east of the Industrial Zone of Deir-ez-Zour City.

On March 28th (28/3/18) ISIL again attacked the Syrians at both Abu Kamal and the T2 Air Base. However they also expanded their attacks to include the T3 Air Base.

The T3 Air Base sits around 190km (115 miles) west of Abu Kamal and around 40km (25km) east of Palmyra. ISIL's ability to strike this far to the east seemed to be a sign of their growing strength.

In response to the strikes on Abu Kamal, T2 and T3 Air Bases the Syrians launched an operation against ISIL the following day (29/3/18). This focused on ISIL's desert hideouts around al-Faydah close to Mayadin. 

The town of Mayadin sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates around 80km (50 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal and around 50km (30 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.

On April 4th (4/4/18) the Syrians expanded their anti-ISIL operation to include the areas around Subyakhan and Salihiyah. These sit around 55km (35 miles) and 35km (20 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal respectively.

On April 5th (5/4/18) ISIL attacked Olinayah. Sitting almost directly south of Palmyra this was further evidence of ISIL's growing strength and reach.

Over the weekend of April 7th (7/4/18) to April 9th (9/4/18) ISIL launched a large series of attacks against the Syrians. These targeted Mayadin and the Highway linking Deir-ez-Zour City and as-Suknah. They also targeted Qaryatayn

The targeting of Qaryatayn in particular was a significant show of strength and advance westward for ISIL. It sits around 100km (60 miles) south-west of Palmyra. It actually sits around 15km (10 miles) east of the East Qalamoun Mountains. At the time this was really considered part of the area of operations for the Battle of East Ghouta.

The attacks on Qaryatayn were more or less completely repelled by the Syrians by April 10th (10/4/18). However on April 14th (14/4/18) the UK, the US and France conducted strikes against Syria.

Those looming strikes emboldened ISIL. On April 13th (13/4/18) they struck even further to the east attacking the Syrian 16th Regiment Air Defence Base. This sits 120km (70 miles) south-east of Palmyra and only 90km (55 miles) north-west of the centre of Damascus itself.

This attack by ISIL so deep into Syria prompted the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) to respond. From within Iraq the PMF shelled ISIL at Tal Safouk in the vicinity of al-Tanf.

Amid all this the clashes between the Syrians and ISIL at Abu Kamal have been near continuous. At a particular peak on April 10th (10/4/18) ISIL were deploying armed drones against Syrian forces.

The overwhelming majority of the resurgent ISIL's attacks have been focused on the Syrians south of the Euphrates. However ISIL have also been conducting attacks against the SDF to the north of the Euphrates.

On April 3rd (3/4/18) ISIL launched coordinated attacks against the SDF at the towns of Shadaddi and Bahra. 

Only liberated from ISIL on February 22nd (22/2/18) Bahra sits on the northern bank of the Euphrates. Around 35km (20 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal.

The starting point of the SDF's Cizre Storm operation Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River. Around 95km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.

From their positions along the Syria/Iraq border around the Buwarah Salt Pan ISIL also launched attacks against the Azraq and Sayjan Oil Fields. Part of the larger Omar Oil Fields this sit around 35km (20 miles) and 20km (10 miles) south-east of the Khobar River respectively.

Both Azraq and Sayjan Oil Fields were overrun by ISIL. On April 4th (4/4/18) the SDF reclaimed Azraq Oil Field. However the battle to recover Sayjan Oil Field along with heavy fighting around Bahra continued until April 9th (9/4/18) when the SDF were forced to declare a special military zone to recover Sayjan Oil Field and finally break the ISIL offensive.

Despite the suspension of their anti-ISIL operations and renewed attacks the SDF's civilian administration were able to resume production at the Jabisah Oil Refinery on April 10th (10/4/18). This sits close to Jabisah Mountain around 10km (6 miles) north-east of Shadaddi.

In the immediate term the resumption of production at the Jabisah refinery is simply to provide fuel to the SDF and civilians living within Shangri-La. However if the SDF are able to start exporting fuel from Shangri-La it will be seen as a sign of a growing economic independence for the region. A possible first step to it illegally being annexed from Syrian territory.

These fears have been increased with the ease at which CJTFOIR allowed Turkey to illegally annex first Garvaghy Road and then Afrin Canton. Rather than linking the two areas up with Shangri-La ahead of a negotiation over regional autonomy with the Syrian government.

The concerns were increased further by statements made by US President Trump. At a campaign style rally on March 29th (29/3/18) President Trump said that the US would be pulling out of Syria very soon.

Western politicians of all stripes have a deserved reputation for saying things which are not true during campaigns. President Trump has got to be one of the worst offenders in this. He often gets carried away and says things which will make the crowd cheer without thinking about them. As such I don't put much stock in what he says during campaign style rallies.

However on April 17th (17/4/18) the US newspaper the Wall Street Journal added credence to the claim. It reported that the US was in negotiations to see troops from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) replace US troops in supporting the SDF.

When it comes to reporting on President Trump the US media have a deserved reputation for saying things which are not true. They will print any fiction as long as it excites their readers who share their hatred of Trump. So I don't put much stock in what they say either.

However the Wall Street Journal report forced the nations mentioned to respond. 

Saudi Arabia immediately stated that it was not in negotiations with the US but would be happy to send troops if asked. On April 18th (18/4/18) Egypt also confirmed that negotiations were not taking place but categorical ruled out sending troops. 

The UAE have largely remained silent but Turkey is claiming the UAE is offering to fund the SAC within Shangri-La. Through the Muslim Brotherhood Turkey and Qatar are currently engaged in a massive regional feud with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Amid these rising concerns the Syrians gave the SDF and primarily CJTFOIR a little nudge. They would no more tolerate Shangri-La being illegally annexed by Saudi Arabia and UAE than they will tolerate Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road being illegally annexed by Turkey. 

On April 29th (29/4/18) Syrian forces crossed the Euphrates at Deir-ez-Zour City. The Syrians promptly captured the villages of Junayah, Maishiyah, Jiyah and Hissan from the SDF.

Being a gesture rather than a legitimate attempt to gain territory the Syrian forces quickly withdrew. Allowing the SDF to reclaim the villages that evening.

17:15 on 4/5/18 (UK date).