The 2018 Winter Olympics: Security.

Depending where you are in the World Thursday (8/2/18), Friday (9/2/18) or Saturday (10/2/18) will see the start of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games. These are to be held in Pyeongchang in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South).

Any event on the scale of an Olympic Games presents a number of security challenges. The Republic of Korea hosting an Olympic Games presents a number of very specific and complex security issues.

The Republic of Korea is technically still at war with its northern neighbour the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North). Therefore it is reasonable to say that the 2018 Winter Olympics will be held in a warzone. Albeit a not particularly active one.

The RoK hosted the 1988 Summer Olympics. On November 29th 1987 (29/11/87) - roughly 10 months before the start of the games - Korean Air Flight 858 took off from Baghdad, Iraq en route to Seoul, RoK.

On board were two North Korean agents carrying a bomb hidden inside a radio. They got off the plane at a scheduled stop-over in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The bomb detonated just before the flight made its second scheduled stop-over in Thailand. The explosion brought the aircraft down over the Andaman Sea killing all 115 people on board.

One of the North Korean agents - Kim Hyon-hui - was captured alive. She testified that the bombing had been ordered by Kim Jong-il in an effort to frighten nations into not attending the 1988 Summer Olympics.

At the time Kim Jong-il was being groomed to take over from his father Kim Il-sung as leader of the DPRK. He eventually became leader in 1997.

The 1998 Winter Olympics were held in Nagano, Japan.

From 1910 through to 1945 the Korean Peninsula was invaded and occupied as part of the Japanese Empire. It was the defeat of the Japanese Empire at the end of the Second World War that directly led to the partition of the Korean Peninsula and the creation of the nations of the DPRK and the RoK.

In June 1997 - roughly 7 months before the start of the games - several North Korean warships crossed over the partition line into South Korean waters in the Sea of Japan. They attacked two South Korea ships leading to an exchange of fire. At the same time North Korean land forces crossed around 70km (40 miles) into South Korean territory triggering a roughly 30 minute battle.

In 2002 The Football World Cup was jointly hosted by Japan and the RoK.

This growing alliance between two enemies apparently at the exclusion of the DPRK triggered what is known as the; "Second Battle of Yeonpyeong." During the World Cup on June 29th 2002 (29/6/02) North Korea warships crossed into South Korean waters triggering a battle with South Korean warships. In this battle 6 North Korean sailors and 13 South Korean sailors were killed.

In 2011 Kim Jong-il died and was replaced as leader of the DPRK by his son Kim Jong-un at around the time of the 2012 Summer Olympics held in London, UK.

I remember this well because while I'm no longer sure how old I am I know that I am roughly the same age as Kim Jong-un. He is married to Ri Sol-ju - a very famous popstar in North Korean. The 2012 Summer Olympics saw me 'married off' to famous popstar Rihanna sometimes known as; "Ri-ri."

It is perhaps no coincidence then that Kim Jong-un has made his foreign spokesman Ri Jong-ho. Pronounced; "Young ho Ri."

Under Kim Jong-un the DPRK has dramatically increased its nuclear weapons capability. In 2013 it conducted its third test of and Atom Bomb (A-bomb). In 2016 the DPRK tested its first - much more powerful Hydrogen Bomb (H-bomb). It has gone on to test two more H-bombs - most recently in September 2017.

The DPRK has also dramatically increased its missile capability. On July 4th 2017 (4/7/17) they successfully tested their first Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) - the Hwasong-14.

On July 28th 2017 (28/7/17) the North Koreans successfully test-fired a second Hwasong-14 ICBM. This this was done to successfully test a re-entry vehicle capable of delivering a H-bomb warhead to targets as far away as the cities of New York and Boston on the east coast of the US.

Therefore if the 2018 Winter Olympics see any repeat of the 1987, 1997 or 2002 incidents the results could be apocalyptic.

It might seem a strange thing to say. However I think the DPRK's advances in its nuclear weapons program actually reduces the security risk to the 2018 Winter Olympics.

The DPRK's desire for nuclear weapons stems from the period leading up to the July 27th 1953 (27/7/53) signing of the armistice in the Korean War.

It particularly stems from a series of incidents between September 1950 and April 1951. At the time the DPRK was being backed in the war by China. This led to the US flying nuclear armed bombers over both the DPRK and China in a strategy known as; "Nuclear Blackmail." The objective was to intimidate China into ending its support for the DPRK.

Not being a nuclear armed state at the time China really had no option other then to backdown. This US strategy prompted both China and the DPRK to aggressively pursue nuclear weapons of their own to guard against future blackmail by the US.

China obtained its nuclear weapons relatively quickly testing their first A-bomb in 1964, their first nuclear capable ICBM in 1966 and their first H-bomb in 1967.

Being a much smaller country than China the DPRK's pursuit of nuclear weapons has been much slower. Although it remains part of the nation's constitution the DPRK hasn't really been pursuing them since the 1970's. Kim Jong-il in particular only ever really paid lipservice to the idea.

Instead particularly Kim Jong-il pursued an international strategy more akin to running a protect racket. The North Korean military would do something violent and aggressive such as the two Battles of Yeonpyeong. The DPRK would then demand concessions - often simply just cash - to not do more violent and aggressive things.

Much like Kim Jong-il oversaw the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 prior to taking over from Kim Il-sung in 2010 Kim Jon-un oversaw what's known as the; "Bombardment of Yeonpyeong."

Simply the DPRK launched a massive artillery bombardment of the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong on November 23rd 2010 (23/11/10). The prompted the RoK to return fire. Five South Koreans including three civilians were killed. The RoK claim that 5-10 North Koreans were killed. The DPRK has only confirmed the deaths of five.

The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong seemed to be the North Korean Generals attempting to school Kim Jong-un in his father's strategy of racketeering.

Having fully taken over as leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-un seems to have completely abandoned his father's strategy of provocation. While making serious attempts to modernise and open up the DPRK Kim Jong-un has focused on advancing the nations nuclear weapons capability which the DPRK has always seen as a defensive measure.

Obviously though it is impossible to test H-bombs and ICBM's without it seeming at least a little bit provocative.

One bump in Kim Jong-un's less hostile strategy has been the death of Otto Warmbier on June 19th 2017 (19/6/17). Since January 2nd 2016 (2/1/16) this US student had been imprisoned in the DPRK on charges of the wilful destruction of government property - a propaganda poster.

The US in particular has pointed to the death of Otto Warmbier as evidence that there is no difference in the DPRK under Kim Jong-un and the DPRK under Kim Jong-il.

I think the US is wrong in that assessment. Not only does that claim show a fundamental misunderstanding of how the DPRK functions it also shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the human race works.

Even in absolute dictatorships no one person hold complete power. Every leader needs to rely on a hierarchy of subordinates prepared to carry out their orders. Within this hierarchy different factions each with their own interests always emerge.

The US actually suffered a similar intelligence failure leading up to and during the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia.

They seemed convinced that Russia has strict laws against homosexuality because Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself homophobic. They couldn't even entertain the idea that Russia has strict laws against homosexuality because many ordinary Russians hold extremely homophobic views forcing the President to take action.

In no small part the reason Russia was given the 2014 Winter Games was to constructively engage with and tackle those widely held homophobic views.

If anything I think that the death of Otto Warmbier was the result of one of these factions trying to derail Kim Jong-un's attempts to move the DPRK in a more open and peaceful direction.

The other alternative is that it was just an unconnected event. I am certainly not attempting to defend the DPRK's prison system where people are routinely subjected to torture and inhumane torture of which death is often a side-effect. However I don't think anyone seriously believes Kim Jong-un spends his weekends moonlighting as a prison guard.

The US is sending Vice President Mike Pence to the 2018 Winter Olympic Opening Ceremony. As his guests of honour Vice President Pence is bringing Otto Warmbier's family. I think that only works as a gesture if Pence is hoping it will prompt all other nations to form an orderly queue to explain to him why he's in the wrong.

Showing just how congested things are the news of Pence's invitation to the Warmbier family actually broke during Sunday's (4/2/18) Super Bowl.

Particularly when US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Hayley popped up I was tempted to point out to US President Trump that the RoK would likely use Warmbier to explain to him that no dictator has absolute power. Before going on to point out that the 'New England Traitors' would say they're using Robert Mueller in an effort to make the same point.

So despite the fire and fury of 2017 I've always thought the security threat from the DPRK to the 2018 Winter Olympics is extremely low.

It must often seem that I'm ignoring the situation of the Korean Peninsula.

The truth is that I know the DPRK and the RoK have been exchanging extremely complex messages on a near daily basis for nearly 70 years.

For example on Monday (5/2/18)  the RoK had to dismiss 1,200 private security guards with 900 military personnel taking over their duties following an outbreak of Norovirus. Norovirus is of course famous for causing what is delicately described as; "Gastrointestinal Distress."

On Tuesday (6/2/18) the DPRK issued a statement condemning US President Trump and; "The foul smells emanating from his body."

So I am extremely aware of how little I know about the exact state of relations between the DPRK and the RoK. I am also aware that when nuclear weapons are involved the stakes are extremely high. So I've been actively avoiding blundering about in a situation I realise I do not fully understand.

Amid my silence the RoK and the DPRK have been discussing the matter directly amongst themselves.

On January 20th 2018 (20/1/18) they agreed that 22 North Korean athletes will attend the games. They will be joined by a 400 strong diplomatic delegation including a cheerleading squad, a Taekwondo demonstration team and an orchestra. It will also include Kim Jong-un's sister and senior government figure Kim Yo-jong.

Of the 22 athletes 12 will compete as part of a combined Ice Hockey team and all the athletes from both nations will enter the Opening Ceremony under a Unified Korea flag.

The Korea's old colonial master Japan does not seem happy about this.

Throughout 2017 one of the big stories in Japan has been plans by Princess Mako - granddaughter of Emperor Akihito - to marry a commoner. This would involve her giving up her Royal status.

Today (7/2/18) Japan has announced that the wedding is off. It is just not ready to see the two unified as one.

Despite Japanese objections the fact that senior North Koreans will be physically attending the games significantly reduces the already low chance of the DPRK launching an attack.

It does though mean the politics are going to get really complex.

In what I feel is a flawed strategy the US has responded to the DPRK's missile tests by imposing international sanctions - particularly on fuel. Today (7/2/18) the DPRK has asked for an exemption to be made so they can refuel the ship that brought their delegation to the RoK.

That level of political complexity though is entirely preferable to people blasting away at each other with artillery cannons.

The other big threat to the games is of course from Islamist terrorism. I will have to deal with that in a separate post. Most probably tomorrow.

18:00 on 7/2/18 (UK date).