The 2018 Winter Olympics: Security Pt.2.

Obviously this picks up from Part 1; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/the-2018-winter-olympics-security.html

The 2018 Winter Olympics pick up the baton from the 2014 Winter Olympics which were held in Sochi, Russia.

Those games were marred by just appalling levels of Islamist violence.

That violence stemmed from a meeting held in Moscow, Russia in August 2013. This saw the then head of Saudi Arabia's intelligence agency Prince Bandar bin Sultan meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Prince Bandar's message to President Putin was quite clear. Russia must stop opposing the Saudi backed terrorist groups which have become known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). Otherwise Saudi Arabia will use those groups to conduct terrorist attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympics.

In December 2013 - less then two months before the 2014 games - Prince Bandar followed through on his threat.

On December 29th 2013 (29/12/13) 34 Russian civilians were murdered in twin Islamist suicide bombings in the city of Volgograd. For the 2014 games Volgograd was the main transit hub. Visitors would fly into Volgograd and then travel by road or train to Sochi.

The 1972 Summer Olympics held in Munich, Germany were attacked by the Muslim but not Islamist Black September group. Following Israel's response; "Operation: Wrath of God" this went extremely badly for Black September along with Palestinian waiters who were unlucky enough to be classed as collateral damage.

So in response to the Volgograd bombings global intelligence agencies united to stop Saudi Arabia conducting terror attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympics. From the way that corpses kept mysterious appearing in cars loaded with weapons it was clear that spy agencies who are normally rivals were sharing intelligence in a unified effort.

Then US President Barack Obama however felt the need to apologise to Saudi Arabia for stopping them murdering people at the 2013 games.

The first part of this apology was to hijack the gay-rights issue to whip up opposition to Russian President Putin personally. In doing this Obama turned calls for gay-rights into a western conspiracy against Russia legitimising homophobic attitudes. Obama really let us see his true colours there.

The second part of Obama's apology was to back a coalition of actual Word War 2 Nazis and Islamists to overthrow the government of Ukraine, The Russian city of Sochi is almost directly bordered by Ukraine. This plunged a nation on Russia's border into a civil war that continues to this day.

Despite it being the result of his actions Obama used this civil war to impose the sanctions on Russia that he'd long wanted to impose as a way to support ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

Obama also used the civil war in Ukraine to start anti-Russian conspiracy theories in the US. He then attempted to use those conspiracy theories to rig the 2016 US Presidential election in favour of his designated successor Hillary Clinton.

This was done primarily but setting up a dedicated unit of the FBI answering directly to Obama with the task of removing criticism of Hillary Clinton from social media. Under the guise of guarding against foreign (Russian) interference in the election.

This will likely be a big talking point at the 2018 Winter Olympics.

In 2012 outgoing South Korean President Lee Myung-bak tried to rig the election in favour of his designated successor Park Guen-hye.

This was done primarily through the South Korean equivalent of the FBI - the NIS - setting up a special unit answering directly to Lee Myung-bak with the task of removing criticism of Park Guen-hye from social media. This too was done under the guise of guarding against foreign (North Korean) interference in the election.

Having been impeached just before the 2016 US Presidential Election Park Guen-hye is currently in prison.

I gather that through a coin toss the US Olympic team are already discussing what an absolute shithole Obama turned their country into. However from the latest developments in the associated Lee Jae-yong case I also gather that absolutely no-one is impressed by Mike Pence.

Obama's elaborate two-part apology however was not sufficient for the Islamic Kingdom of Malaysia.

Midway between the Winter Olympics and the Winter Para-Olympics Malaysia Airlines crashed their flight MH370 in mysterious circumstances with the loss of 239 lives. Flight MH370 has still not been recovered.

Although this did not effect the 2014 games directly it certainly cast a dark pall over them. Not least by generating massive tensions between Malaysia and all the nations who lost citizens aboard the flight - predominately longterm ISIL/JAF opponent China - along with all the nations the flight may have flown over or crashed near to.

The Islamist violence at the 2014 Winter Olympics was directed at Russia rather than the Olympics themselves.

Since then International Olympic Committee (IOC) has moved to completely appease those responsible for the violence.

Russia was partially banned from the 2016 Summer Olympics and totally banned from the 2018 Winter Olympics. Although clearly done as a security measure officially this is because of accusations of Russian cheating.

Russia recently took those allegations to the Court of Arbitration in Sport (CAS). The Court found them to be baseless and the IOC's actions to be unlawful.

This prompted the head of the IOC who can reasonably be described as Abu Sayyaf to scream something about Sharia Law being the only law and declare the unlawful ban would stand. Causing CAS to adjourn further Russian legal challenges.

This too all happened during Sunday (4/2/18) Super Bowl.

Following the 2018 Winter Olympics Saudi Arabia has undergone something of a change of direction. Prince Bandar was almost immediately fired from his role as head of the nation's intelligence agency. In June 2017 Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman effectively became ruler of Saudi Arabia. In November 2017 he briefly imprisoned Prince Bandar.

Therefore while still far more significant then the threat from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North) the Islamist threat to the 2018 Winter Olympics remains low. Certainly much lower then to the 2014 Winter Olympics.

The main cause for concern remains Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

He obviously supported Saudi Arabia's attempts to attack the 2014 Winter Olympics. While Saudi Arabia was firing and imprisoning Prince Bandar Erdogan has been shooting down Russian jets and murdering Russian Ambassadors.

Erdogan also aggressively supported Obama's efforts to plunge Ukraine into civil war.

One particular element of the Army of Conquest that Erdogan backs in Syria is the Sultan Mehmed Brigade. They take their name from Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II known as; "Mehmed the Conqueror."

One of the places Mehmed the Conqueror conquered was Ukraine. To this day there remains an ethnically Turkish population in Ukraine known as; "Tartars." They have significantly assisted in attempting to ethnically cleanse Ukraine of its Russian speaking population. Not least in a wave of terror attacks against the power grid in the winter of 2015/16.

Emboldened by the IOC's policy of appeasement Erdogan used the 2016 Summer Olympics as opportunity to formally invade and illegally occupy an area of northern Syrian known as; "Garvaghy Road."

The purpose of Erdogan's invasion to prevent the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) cutting ISIL and the Army of Conquest's supply lines with Turkey.

On January 20th 2018 (20/1/18) Erdogan went one step further. He sent regular Turkish forces to attack the SDF directly in an area under their control known as; "Afrin Canton." This sits directly to the west of Garvaghy Road. Erdogan's ultimate objective is to permanently and illegally occupy Afrin Canton alongside Garvaghy Road.

However this operation was launched really because Erdogan lost a bet with Russia.

Erdogan gambled that the threat to attack Russian forces stationed in Afrin Canton would be enough to force Russia to pressure Syria into ending a highly successful operation against Army of Conquest forces in an area known as; "The Sudetenland." This sits directly south of Afrin Canton.

This obviously did not work. Despite Erdogan's attacks on the SDF the Syrian offensive has continued.

As I've been doing the Super Bowl and now this I do not have the exact current Turkish deathtoll in Afrin Canton to hand. However after just two weeks it is fast approaching the total of 72 killed in the five month operation in Garvaghy Road. As such if it hasn't done so already it is likely to soon dawn on Erdogan the unsustainability of his forces occupying Afrin Canton longterm.

Meanwhile Syrian successes against Erdogan backed forces in the Sudetenland have if anything increased in pace.

On January 29th 2018 (29/1/18) ISIL and the Army of Conquest announced they were launching a joint offensive against Syrian forces at the town of Saraqib. They promised this offensive would be; "Epic."

I took my eye off this for a single day. By January 31st (31/1/18) I could find no indication of this offensive.

It seems that in the space of just 24 hours this offensive had not only collapsed but ISIL and the Army of Conquest's lines around Saraqib had completely collapsed allowing the Syrians to rapidly liberate a large amount of territory.

Amid these twin pressures Erdogan has become increasingly aggressive.

On February 3rd (3/2/18) he instructed fighters from the Al Qaeda element of the Army of Conquest to shoot down a Russian jet using a MAN Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) missile which he'd supplied. The thinking being that this would intimidate Russia into at least suspending air operations.

This backfired on Erdogan spectacularly with Russia intensifying air operations. After all unlike the IOC they know the only way to deal with a bully is to break his nose.

Having again gambled and lost Erdogan has once again been ratcheting up false claims of Chemical Weapons use by the Syrians- particularly around Saraqib. The hope being the international community - as it did under Obama - will respond by pretending it can't see the obvious lie and demand a ceasefire to protect Al Qaeda.

This is highly unlikely to succeed raising the risk that Erdogan will again attempt to escalate and do something extremely stupid during the 2018 Winter Olympics.

At around 18:15 on 8/2/18 (UK date) I will have to attempt to explore his possible options after dinner. As my body already seems to be adjusting to South Korean time.

Edited at around 20:00 on 8/2/18 (UK date) to add;

Due to the pressure of time I do not think that Erdogan will be able to mount a terror attack against the games themselves.

Saudi Arabia's attacks on the 2014 Winter Olympics were more then a year in the planning. Plus the RoK has a much smaller Muslim population then Russia from which Erdogan can draw recruits.

Therefore I think Erdogan would be limited to something like Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. Something which doesn't directly affect games competitors but does cast a significant shadow over the games by targeting the competing nation - making already short tempers even shorter.

The games are of course being held on the Korean Peninsula. This has been central for former US President Obama's; "Pivot Towards the Pacific" policy. This aimed to contain China using a two-track process.

The security track focused on helping the DPRK develop its nuclear weapons and missile program. The intention being to allow the US to present itself as the only ones who could protect nations in the region from the bogeyman.

The economic track focused on opening trading relationships between the US and nations in the region who really should remain isolated by international sanctions. The most extreme example of this is Myanmar/Burma.

Erdogan fancies himself not only as a regional power but as a global power on a level with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC). As a result he has used Myanmar as a way to muscle in on discussions about the DPRK.

Erdogan has done this by establishing an Islamist terror group within Myanmar calling itself the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). They then attacked Burmese security forces triggering a crackdown. Erdogan has then attempted to portray this security crackdown as an ethnic cleansing targeting Myanmar's minority Rohingya Muslim population.

Therefore Erdogan certainly has the capability to use ARSA to launch further attacks in Myanmar. The hope being to trigger another security crackdown and derail complex negotiations on the issue amid frenzied claims of genocide.

The media within Myanmar is very strictly controlled. Therefore it is likely that only a select group of people with the highest security clearances will get to hear about any further violence there. That is actually worse for the Olympics because its very hard to hold a group discussion when most of the group doesn't know what is being discussed.

Erdogan certainly has the capacity to conduct terror attacks in Syria and Iraq. However because he has been doing that for nearly 8 years everyone has become rather immune to violence there. I myself no longer attempt to list all the violent incidents - merely prioritise the most important ones.

As such to be noticed Erdogan would have to do something like a big - Nerve Agent - Chemical Weapons attacks similar to the ones he carried out in East Ghouta in 2013 and Khan Shiekhoun in 2017.

The Khan Shiekhoun attack in particular seemed to originate in claims that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un used the nerve agent VX to kill his brother Kim Jong-nam at an airport in Malaysia. Therefore a nerve agent attack in particularly Syria is likely to be highly disruptive during the 2018 Winter Olympics.

Erdogan may also attempt to disrupt the games with a conventional terror attack in a nation with lower levels of violence.

Therefore we could well see a repeat of the November 2015 Paris Massacres, the July 2016 Nice attack or the December 2016 Berlin attack. This is a long list.

In terms of access Erdogan is best placed to mount an attack in Egypt.

Due to its role in the Ottoman Empire Erdogan has been conducting attacks there for almost at long as he's been conducting attacks in Syria.

The Easter 2017 attacks on Christian Churches along with the December 2017 attacks on Christian Churches are just some examples. As is the November 2017 attacks on Mosque.

That in particular shows how this type of attacks can disrupt sporting events. The following day Egyptian footballer Mo Saleh scored for Liverpool against his old club Chelsea. He did not celebrate which led to him being condemned by some Liverpool fans for not celebrating a goal against his old club.

Then some other Liverpool fans pointed he'd just seen 305 of his countrymen murdered. He was not in a celebratory mood.

On October 31st 2015 (31/10/15) the Russian passenger jet Metrojet flight 7K9268 was bombed out of the skies over Egypt murdering 217 people.

Due to the similarity with Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 and the November 29th 1987 (29/11/87) bombing of Korean Air flight 858 the bombing or shooting down with a MANPAD of a civilian airliner is also a distinct possibility.

So it is likely I spend these games remaining focused on particularly Syria.

After all that's where any security threats are going to start.


20:40 on 8/2/18 (UK date).