Operation Featherweight: Month 44, Week 3, Day 1.

Within Syria there are currently three critical areas in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda.

Shangri-La:

This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The SDF's main task within Shangri-La is currently clearing the last few population centres on the banks of the Euphrates from ISIL. This operation is particularly focused on the town of al-Bahrah. This is located around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates crosses the border between Syria and Iraq.

The area to the south of the Euphrates is currently under the control of the Syrians themselves. They are supported by longstanding allies Russia and Iran.

On December 5th 2017 (5/12/17) the Syrians were able to declare the area to the south of the Euphrates to be completely liberated from ISIL.

However with ISIL continuing to maintain a presence on the north bank of the Euphrates they have been able to mount sporadic attacks on the south bank of the river.

Also the US has insisted on maintaining a base designated; "Bobby Sands" close to the town of al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) south of the Euphrates on the border between Syria and Iraq.

The area surrounding the Bobby Sands base is completely under Syrian control. However the presence of US troops at the base means that the Syrians cannot engage ISIL fighters close to the base.

The only purpose in the US maintaining the Bobby Sands base seems to be to provide ISIL with a safe-zone. They can transit through to mount attacks both in the Euphrates area and elsewhere in Syria.

Afrin Canton:

This is a roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area in Syria's north-west. It is centred around the town of Afrin.

The Afrin Canton is also under the control of the SDF.

The Sudetenland:

This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

The Sudetenland is the heartland of Al Qaeda in Syria. However to disguise their links they currently prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham.

Within the Sudetenland AQ operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters.

Dividing Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland you have an area known as the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area."

This contains 10 control points belonging to the regular Turkish military. These effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda. Their main purpose is to protect Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland from the SDF in Afrin Canton.

With the exception of a 25 day period in August 2017 Al Qaeda and ISIL forces have used the Sudetenland as a spring board to launch attacks against Syrian forces to the south.

On October 25th 2017 (25/10/17) the Syrians themselves launched an operation against Al Qaeda and ISIL in the Sudetenland.

Although it wasn't stated at the time their ultimate objective was the town of Abu al-Duhur. This is located around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Idlib City.

On January 22nd 2018 (22/1/18) the Syrians liberated Abu al-Duhur and the military air base adjacent to the town.

In the process the Syrians dealt a massive blow to particularly Al Qaeda forces within the Sudetenland.

On a single day Al Qaeda were forced to retreat from the entire al-Hass Plateau. This is a roughly 2,500 kmsq (1,500milesq) covering most of the region south of Aleppo City and east of Idlib City.

From roughly mid-December 2018 through to mid-January Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been desperate for this Syrian operation to halt and for the Al Qaeda forces under his protection in the Sudetenland to be spared.

The main part of Erdogan's efforts to halt Syrian operations in the Sudetenland has been a threat to attack Afrin Canton.

While Erdogan has established control points to protect Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland from the SDF in Afrin Canton Russia has established its own control points. To protect the SDF from attack by Erdogan's forces.

Therefore Erdogan's threat to attack Afrin Canton was really a threat to attack Russian forces based there.

On January 19th (19/1/18) Russia called Erdogan's bluff and withdrew their forces from Afrin Canton. This left Erdogan with little choice other then to follow through on his very public threats while Syrian operations in the Sudetenland continued.

On January 21st (21/1/18) Erdogan launched his operation against Afrin Canton.

This involved members of the regular Turkish military alongside an irregular and therefore illegal element known as the United Turkmen Army (UTA). Sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) the UTA are an offshoot of the Grey Wolves paramilitary wing of the Fascist Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Obviously though due to the close alliance with the regular and irregular Turkish military Erdogan's operation in Afrin Canton has also included members of both Al Qaeda and ISIL.

This attack by Erdogan on the SDF in Afrin Canton has obviously hampered the SDF's ability to fight ISIL. Particularly in Shangri-La.

According to February 18th (18/2/18) figures 100 members of the SDF have been killed by Erdogan's forces.

These include two European members of the SDF's International Brigade. Jean Le Clainche aged 41 from Malestroit, France and Samuel Prada Leon aged 25 from Ourense, Spain.

The SDF have a total force of around 75,000 so the loss of 100 is not going to break them. However it almost goes without saying that those 100 will now not be able to fight ISIL.

Aside from the losses the SDF have also been forced to redeploy forces to Afrin Canton.

On February 6th (6/2/18) between 1,500 and 5,000 were redeployed from Shangri-La. On February 19th (19/2/18) more reinforcements arrived from the Shiekh Maqsood district of Aleppo City. Today (22/2/18) that the redeployment appears to have allowed that longheld SDF enclave within Aleppo City to finally fall into the hands of the Syrians.

The SDF's ability to fight ISIL has also been severely hampered by the US-led coalition CJTFOIR. Who are supposed to be supporting the SDF to defeat ISIL.

On February 8th (8/2/18) Syrian forces on the south bank of the Euphrates took potshots at SDF forces stationed on the north bank of the Euphrates. Specifically in the vicinity of the Conoco Oil & Gas Field which is just south of the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City.

For bizarre US political reasons the US, Russia and Syria cannot admit that they are working together to defeat ISIL. So rather then just being able to talk to each other they have to disguise their communications in this often violent way.

The prime example of this was when the SDF launched their Cizre Storm operation in September 2017. The objective of this was to sweep down from what is known as the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to Syria's border with Iraq. Thus properly establishing Shangri-La.

However having launched the operation the SDF the immediately got stuck. An element of the coalition sat in the Deir-ez-Zour City Industrial Zone for five days demanding the right to attack Syrian forces.

This prompted the Russians to give the SDF a little nudge of an airstrike. The SDF then got their act together and finally resumed the Cizre Storm operation. Reaching the Syria/Iraq border on November 25th 2017 (25/11/17).

The February 8th (8/2/18) nudge strikes were intended to remind CJTFOIR that they're supposed to protect the SDF from Erdogan's attacks in Afrin Canton.

Unfortunately the US element of CJTFOIR then completely lost its mind.

They launched between three and four hours of sustained airstrikes against a 1000 strong battalion of Syrian forces.

The US then deployed its spy networks in Russia to conduct what viewers of the 2018 Winter Olympic Opening Ceremony would recognise as al "Soft Power" operation.

People at the US' National Endowment for Democracy (NED) will probably claim it was a; "Sharp Power" operation. However I should point out that in the UK the acronym "NED" has long stood for; "Non-Educated Delinquent."

US spy networks within Russia started circulating that hundreds of Russian troops had been killed in this US airstrike.

They've claimed its the largest military confrontation between Russia and the US since the Vietnam War. The most outrageous claim has come from Presidential candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky who claimed that 300 Russian soldiers had been killed.

This is simply not true. For anywhere near that number of Russian soldiers to have been killed it would have had to be an entirely Russian battalion. The deployment of a battalion of Russian ground troops to Syria is the sort of thing that gets noticed.

The official Russian figure of 10 Russians belonging to the Wagner organisation is far more accurate.

The purpose of US spy networks within Russia circulating this false information is to influence the March 18th 2018 (18/3/18) Russian Presidential Election.

The US know they can't materially change the outcome of that election.

However they are hoping to trigger a domestic protest movement rather like the one US President Trump is facing. They hope that protest movement will force a Russian withdrawal from Syria leaving the US with sole responsibility for bringing the war to an end.

An odd objective because up until now the US has certainly shown no interest in taking responsibility for bringing the war in Syria to a successful conclusion.

At a press conference on Tuesday (20/8/18) US Presidential Spokesperson Sarah Huckabee-Sanders assured reporters that in the coming days news would break of President Trump's tough action against Russia.

This is that news breaking.

Personally I think Huckabee-Sanders would want it to remain secret. Whomever advised President Trump of this course of action. Well this is the end of their career.

The US' wholly illegal February 8th (8/2/18) strikes against Syrian forces has destroyed that fragile trust between the SDF and the Syrians.

As a result there have been near continuous subsequent clashes between the SDF and Syrian forces. Between February 8th (8/2/18) and February 15th (15/2/18) no progress was made against ISIL by either the Syrians or the SDF.

Within Afrin Canton the objectives of Erdogan's operations have been hard to pin down. On some days he says its to create a buffer-zone along the border areas. On other days its to annex Afrin Canton entirely. On some other days its to entirely annex both Afrin Canton and Shangri-La.

However it is clear that on the ground Erdogan's forces are operating on five axis. Or with the operation being codenamed; "Olive Branch" branches.

These are to the east, the north-east, the north-west, the south-west and the south.

On February 11th (11/2/18) the south and south-west axis united while avoiding the town of Jinderes. On February 15th (15/2/18) the south-west and north-west axis united while avoiding the town of Rajo. On February 20th (20/2/18) the east and north-east axis united.

If and when the north-east and north-west axis unite then the objective of establishing a buffer-zone along the border area will be complete.

On February 15th (15/2/18) The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Turkey. You would think this would be a good opportunity of pin down Erdogan's objectives.

However Secretary Tillerson's visit was completely sabotaged by events occurring within the US.

On February 14th (14/2/18) there was a mass shooting in the Parkland area of the US state of Florida. This triggered mass calls for the banning of the specific AR-15 rifle.

The "AR" in AR-15 stands for; "Armalite Rifle."

Amid Islamist terror groups the AK-47 rifle has iconic status. Amid Nationalist Liberation groups such as the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) the AR-18 rifle has similar iconic status.

This is one of those areas I go to great lengths to make difficult to understand. However you certainly don't want to be walking into a meeting with Erdogan with your own side calling for Armalites to be banned.

Immediately prior to flying to Turkey Secretary Tillerson held a press conference in Lebanon. There he was bombarded by questions about the Parkland shooting. You only need to watch video of that press conference to see that he was befuddled by the issue.

In Turkey Secretary Tillerson met with Erdogan. However in a break with protocol he relied only on a Turkish translator. American translators were banned from the meeting. Suggesting to me that Secretary Tillerson thinks that US civil servants cannot be trusted to convey his wishes on matters of policy accurately.

Almost drowned out by the Parkland shooting late on February 14th (14/2/18) the FBI announced that it had arrested two men in the Bronx area of New York City disrupting a terrorist bomb plot.

However this was not an Islamist terror plot. Nor was it a far-right terrorist plot. Instead it was driven by some very weird hatred of young children. I'd like to compare it to paedophilia because although hard to understand that is a lot easier to understand then whatever the hell these guys were on about.

The two men arrested were brothers - Tyler Toro and Christian Toro.

Within Japan "Toro" refers to a sort of administrative district often listed on addresses.

One thing we've learnt from the 2018 Winter Olympics held in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South) is that the Americans don't appear to understand that not all Asian nations are Japan.

The Opening Ceremony centred around Korean Creation Myths stemming from the Animist religions such as Taoism. It compared these to the Creation Myth of the Abrahamic religion such as Christianity.

This bizarre mix of Animist and Abrahamic religions was practised by the Japanese Aum Shinrikyo cult. They carried out the March 20th 1995 (20/3/95) Sarin gas attack on the Tokyo underground rail (Metro) system.

The message Erdogan appears to take from the arrest of these Japanese Christian brothers who thought it was time to show the children pain is that the US have given him permission to use Sarin against the SDF.

On February 17th (17/2/18) Erdogan's forces decided to explore this topic further. By using Chlorine gas to attack the SDF.

On February 16th (16/2/18) US Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller announced he was indicting 13 Russians over claims of interference in the 2016 US Presidential Election. This was based entirely on electronic evidence.

The obvious question to ask is whether this electronic evidence has been faked. After there is a long track record of people faking electronic evidence in political trials.

Probably the most famous example of this was the Turkish; "Sledgehammer" case. This case centred around Erdogan's attempts to jail his opponents.

However it emerged that the key piece of electronic evidence in this 2003 plot had been created on MS Office 2007. Eventually all the electronic evidence was found to be fake and the case was dismissed.

Obviously this is not something you want your own side screaming about when you're heading into a key meeting with Erdogan. Using fake electronic evidence against political opponents is very much Erdogan's signature move.

As such it seems very clear that there is a faction within the US Intelligence Community that is operating a shadow foreign policy in conflict with the US official foreign policy. 

That is a clear criminal violation of the 1799 Logan Act.

At 18:15 on 22/2/18 (UK date) I'll try and pick this up after dinner. 

Edited at around 19:40 on 22/2/18 (UK date) to add;

The big story of the week has been the just epic meltdown by Robert Mueller and his team.

That is obviously going to take me a while to explain in detail. Particularly in the context of Syria. So I will finish this tomorrow.

However Mueller's announcement that he's indicted 13 Russians has been a lot like Thomas Bach's speech opening the Winter Olympics.

He's come out and loudly shouted; "Hooray! I've finally going to stick it to the evil Russians. Whose with me."

The response has been a stony silence. Punctuated by the occasional extremely loud boo!

Of course the US news haven't been covering any of that. 

19:45 on 22/2/18 (UK date).