Thursday, 12 April 2012

Operation Ostrava: Month 14, Week 1, Day 5.5.

Ahead of today's (12/4/12) o6:00local/03:00GMT deadline for the Saudi Irregular Army (SIA) to move to ceasefire protesters yesterday (11/4/12) staged a western style, peaceful "Die-in" protest in a shopping centre in Damascus. Four people were arrested and released within a couple of hours. I think it's pretty obvious then that this was the Syrian government suggesting a possible definition of "the right to demonstrate peacefully" as mentioned in point 6 of S/PRST/2012/6. A few hours later the SIA suggested their preferred definition by blocking the main highways near Deraa and Damascus with burning barricades.

As their ceasefire came into effect the SIA largely seem to have ceased fire. Unfortunately they seem to have simply switched tactics towards provoking the Syrian forces into breaking their ceasefire. The SIA have staged large but peaceful demonstrations in Deir al-Zour, Idlib and Damascus. Under the terms of the ceasefire Syrian troops are still in position in these areas so the protests are creating a highly volatile situation where one loud noise could set everything off again. Fortunately though the Syrian troops do not seem to be taking the bait. There have also been reports of explosions in Homs, Hama, and Zabadani but these appear to be the result of bombs being detonated in SIA held areas rather then shells/mortars being fired into the areas from Syrian government positions.

In terms of breaches there have been reports of Syrian forces - who have been bound by ceasefire since Tuesday (10/4/12) - shooting with small arms individuals in Idlib, Aleppo and Homs. However these incidents all appear to have taken place at vehicle checkpoints and are therefore most likely exempted from the ceasefire agreement by the principle of self defence. There was also a report of Syrian forces firing into a refugee camp in Turkey near Kilis on the Syria/Turkey border. However what appears to have happened is that a group of refugees who were attempting to cross into Turkey were about to enter a minefield so the Syrian troops fired into the air to stop them. That strategy seems to have been successful with no casualties being reported even if a few of the bullets did eventually find their way into Turkey.

Some sections of the SIA appear to have disregarded the ceasefire completely though. A civilian Ba'ath Party Secretary was assassinated in a drive-by shooting in al-Muzareeb. A roadside bomb destroyed a Syrian military vehicle in Idlib wounding 3. A roadside bomb destroyed a bus carrying Syrian army officers in Aleppo killing 1 and wonding 24. However applying the same standard that was applied to Syrian forces on Tuesday attacks by the SIA will only be considered technical breaches after 18:00local/15:00GMT today (12/4/12.)

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