Operation Ostrava: Month 2, Week 3, Day 1.

Delayed from 18:15 26/3/12.

I know, between the Internet outages and all this talk of Dementia I've managed to confuse myself. However after checking my calender I can assure you that today (26/3/12) is the first day of the third week of the second month after Russia and China vetoed a proposed United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution on Syria on Saturday February 4th 2012. Strictly speaking I should back date the whole thing to March 15th 2011 when the operation to overthrow the Syrian government went public. That though will take ages and is probably too complicated for me to manage without messing it up.

Arguments about dates aside though the tempo of the conflict in Syria has slowed significantly since the Syrian government re-asserted control over the Babr Amr district of Homs. Since then large sections of the insurgency have either been captured of fled completely while other sections are in the process of switching their tactics towards an asymmetric long war with bombings in places like Aleppo and targeted assassination attempts on Syrian government officials. What is more surprising though is that the Syrian government has failed to push on with the momentum it gained and re-take restive districts in other cities. The reason for this hesitation has been the politics at the UNSC up to the production of the Presidential Statement on March 21st 2012. Breaking the Syrian government's momentum and prolonging the insurgency is of course the UK's main reason for seeking the Presidential Statement.

Although much more balanced then previous UNSC statements on Syria S/PRST/2012/6 or "the six point plan" as it's more commonly known is still much more focused on regime change then ending the violence. For example the first point calls on the Syrian government to forfeit control over Syrian territory and allow a foreign third party to assist the insurgents in achieving their aims which at the moment seem entirely focused on killing the Assad family and supporters. The second point calls on all parties to cease armed violence in all it's forms. However it sets out a timetable for this cessation which would see the Syrian government cease all operations first. Then and only then will the UN Special Envoy begin to put pressure on the insurgents to begin ending their operations. This type of one sided ceasefire is more commonly known as a surrender. Likewise the sixth point calls on the Syrian government to respect freedom of association. That is to say that if the Syrian government has intelligence that a group of insurgents are conspiring together to kill a government official they are to stand back and let the insurgents get on with it.

The most interesting thing about S/PRST/2012/6 though is the way that the US are trying to turn the issue into another element of it's widespread diplomatic campaign against China. Recently the US President hosted the UK Prime Minister to underline US support for the UK. This was a controversial thing for the US to do because after Libya, the stuff with my grandmother and other things there are many people who think the UK should be stripped of it's seat at the UNSC because they represent a clear and grave threat to global peace and security. It is only US support that has prevented this from happening and the US have been more then happy to have it known that they only support the UK so they can do the US' grunt work at the UNSC. This has sown a seed of doubt in the minds of the Russians that perhaps the Chinese are using them for the same purpose. As a result the Russians seem to be starting to waver on Syria and could drop their opposition all together leaving the Chinese exposed as the sole opponent to this fascist-like attack on a sovereign nation. This Chinese exposure could have positive effects for the US in terms of currency valuations and caps on rare earth exports but will pose a significant threat to the people of Syria and other nations across the globe.