Due to particularly the 2018 Winter Para-Olympics it has been a while since my last post on the ongoing war in Syria. Or at least not under the official designation
In that time the battle for Afrin Canton has been completed. The battle for East Ghouta has also begun. And been completed.
As a result I am still trying to piece together the exact order of battle. For not one but two large battles.
If you are unfamiliar with the term; "Order of Battle." It is a posh way of saying; "Hundreds of Soldiers Are Running About."
I am still about a month behind. So this process will not be completed this week. Last week was not exactly conducive to progress.
Particularly in the UK it seems to have gone out of fashion. I though prefer to complete my research before reaching my conclusions.
Under that caveat though a pattern does seem to have emerged in East Ghouta;
The main terror groups operating there are/were The Base/Al Qaeda (AQ), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR). They operate as the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad (JAM) coalition.
Over the course of the battle they have suffered a number of setbacks. For example;
On March 5th (5/3/18) their eastern defensive line collapsed. This saw the JAM lose about 35% of the territory they initially controlled in more-or-less a single day.
On March 6th (6/3/18) civilians in the town of Hammouriyah rose up against the JAM and demanded that they leave.
On March 8th (5/3/18) the Syrians unified their axis' splitting the JAM's forces in two. This saw the JAM losses rise to about 50% of the territory they initially controlled.
Every time they have suffered one of these setbacks the JAM have accused the Syrians of using Chemical Weapons. Typically Chlorine.
A notable incident occurred on March 8th (8/3/18) in Hammouriyah. The JAM claimed that Chlorine gas had been used.
The civilian medical providers in Hammouriyah then denied that claim. The people shown in the videos JAM released were in fact suffering from smoke inhalation, carbon monoxide poisoning and other breathing problems associated with fiery explosions.
On March 6th (6/3/18) the JAM actually claimed the protests against them in Hammouriyah were not protests at all. Instead they were the effects of a Chemical Weapons attack.
The only possible inference you can draw from that is the JAM were accusing the Syrians of using the LSD -like 3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate (QNB/BZ).
The visions we saw of Syrian civilians demanding the JAM leave them alone were merely the hallucinogenic effects of that toxin.
What is also clear is that calls for western military action to punish the Syrian government for Chemical Weapons attacks began long before any Chemical Weapons attacks.
On February 27th (27/2/18) British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs (Senior Foreign Minister) Boris Johnson promised UK military strikes against the Syrians. If and when the JAM claimed Chemical Weapons attacks had occurred.
At that point the battle of East Ghouta was less then 24 hours old.
On March 2nd (2/3/18) the US' Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Nikki Hailey demanded an investigation into Syrian Chemical Weapons attacks in East Ghouta.
On March 6th (6/3/18) then US National Security Adviser H.R McMaster presented US President Trump with plans for military strikes against Syria. In response to Chemical Weapons attacks in East Ghouta.
On March 9th (9/3/18) US Secretary of Defence James Mattis confirmed that US plans for military strikes against the Syrians were in place. They would be acted on as soon as the JAM claimed the Nerve Agent GB/Sarin was used.
Russia has claimed that a foreign intelligence agency coordinated with the JAM to stage the April 7th (7/4/18) Chemical Weapons attack in Douma, East Ghouta.
There certainly seem to be indicators that this could be true.
Not that western nations have directly conspired with the JAM to stage the April 7th (7/4/18). They have just miscalculated and through their public statements led the JAM to believe they would have support if they went ahead.
One thing I have been able to cover is that on or around March 4th (4/3/18) three individuals were taken ill in the UK city of Salisbury.
They have since been identified as Sergei Skripal a Russian agent of
Britain's foreign intelligence service MI6, his daughter Yulia and a
British police officer Nick Bailey.
On March 12th (12/3/18) British Prime Minister Theresa May claimed that
the three had been poisoned by Russia.
On April 12th (12/4/18) the Organisation for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) - the UN's chemical weapons
regulator - released the findings of their investigation;
There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
On April 14th (14/4/18) the UK conducted missile strikes against Syria. Officially as punishment for the April 7th (7/4/18) Chemical Weapons attack in Douma, East Ghouta.
Yesterday (16/4/17) and today (17/4/18) has seen two days of emergency debates in the UK Parliament over the military action of April 14th (14/4/18).
During the period of recess leading up to these Parliamentary debates we have learnt two things about the Britain's governing Conservative Party.
The first of these is that it is utterly incapable of properly assessing intelligence.
The accusation that Russia was responsible for the Skripal poisoning is based entirely on a human source. A person Britain has presumably paid a lot of money for this information.
The going rate for this type of thing is around US$100,000. However even after becoming the subject of an MI6 Burn Notice Christopher Steele was paid around US$230,000 for his Trump dossier.
Britain's Skripal source claimed that Russia was conducting training to assassinate enemies uses the Nerve Agent Novichok in gel form. This Novichok was being produced at the Shikhany-2 facility.
Along with the OPCW Britain's own research has been unable to prove that the Skripals were poisoned with Novichok. That failure to identify Novichok as the chemical used has proved that it was not produced at Shikhany-2.
British research has also proved the chemical was administered in liquid form. Rather than gel form.
So that is now three elements of this paid source's claim which Britain has proven to be untrue.
It might be time to entertain the idea that maybe the source was lying.
We have also learnt the the Conservative Attorney General Jeremy Wright's understanding of the law is so poor he is unable to tell what is a legal instrument and what is not a legal instrument.
As a result you would expect these two days of Parliamentary debate see Britain's Conservative government utterly destroyed.
Unfortunately British Parliamentarians are either too stupid or too simpering to hold the government to account.
To give you an idea of the tone of these debates Parliamentarians of all stripes have been falling over themselves to congratulate the "Heroic" Royal Air Force (RAF) on April 14th's (14/4/18); "Difficult and dangerous operation."
The RAF have been conducting operations in Syria since December 2015. As part of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The typical CJTFOIR operation for the RAF involves them taking off from a base in Cyprus. Somewhere in the air over Syria they refuel from a CJTFOIR tanker flown from a variety of bases across the region.
The RAF planes then embark on a patrol beat. Depending on how long this patrol beat is they may refuel several times in the skies over Syria.
As part of that patrol beat the RAF may be called upon to attack targets on the ground.
This involves them flying really low over the target to drop either Paveway bombs of Brimstone missiles. All while trying to avoid cannon fire and the constant threat of MANPAD anti-aircraft missiles.
Once their patrol is complete the RAF once again refuel in the skies over Syria before returning to base in Cyprus.
Saturday's (14/4/17) mission involved the RAF firing Storm Shadow missiles. These are known as; "Stand Off Weapons".
In short you fire them really far away from the target. The missiles then fly themselves to the target.
So on Saturday's (14/4/18) mission the RAF took off from their base in Cyprus. Flew to the edge of Syria's airspace. Fired their missiles and returned to base in time for breakfast.
Obviously Saturday's (14/4/18) RAF pilots are the same pilots that conduct the CJTFOIR missions.
However if they were different the CJTFOIR pilots would be mocking Saturday's (14/4/18) pilots. Over how they can only be trusted with the really simple jobs.
For the most part this really only highlights how out of touch with reality British Parliamentarians really are.
I can see why though the likes of Prime Minister May and Attorney General Wright need to pretend the RAF aren't flying CJTFOIR missions on a daily basis.
The fact a UN Chapter 7 resolution is already in place on Syria does of course destroy their claim it is impossible to get a UN Chapter 7 resolution on Syria.
It also proves that through the April 14th (14/4/18) strikes they have violated that UN Chapter 7 resolution.
20:25 on 17/4/18 (UK date).
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