Operation Oil Theft: Week 4 Day 7.

Technically this is yesterday's (14/4/11) news but I almost missed it because for some funny reason it wasn't widely reported in Britain.

While NATO foreign ministers were meeting in Berlin the leaders of the BRIC's economic group were also meeting. While most of that meeting was dedicated to economic matters the leaders did release a statement in which they declared that the use of force in Libya should be avoided. This is important because 5 of the members of the BRIC's group are also members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). If they are indicating that they do not support the NATO operation against Libya then coupled with the results of the previous vote it suggests that there are now 7 members of the UNSC who would be prepared to vote to stop that operation - just 2 votes short of the 9 vote threshold.

Obviously Britain, France and French Lebanon are non-starters for those extra two votes. As basically a trading name of the Shell oil company Nigeria will be difficult. However I think those 9 votes are achievable and could rise as high as 11. The key will be what America does. If it keeps making statements in support of the NATO operation those extra votes will remain unavailable and the operation will continue. However if America takes a more ambivalent position those votes will become available and the operation will cease. So for all the talk of taking a back seat America is actually the linchpin allowing the attacks on Libya to continue. Whether or not this will change is hard to gauge because while America is certainly testing the waters of the debate with talk of it "looking beyond resolution 1973(2011)" America has been having a lot of trouble over recent years accepting the change that has already happened.

Also now footage of the attacks have been shown across the world NATO is now admitting that attacks took place in Tripoli yesterday. They are though still denying that these attacks caused civilian casualties.