Operation Oil Theft: [M]onth 2, Week 1, Day 1.

Yesterday (17/4/11) Libyan government forces attempted to re-take Ajdibiya. They were repelled by rebel forces so again around two dozen people were killed or wounded and no progress was made.

This continuing stalemate has forced the coalition of foreign forces to attempt to remake the case for military intervention in Libya to the international community. Britain has today (18/4/11) been attempting to do this by convening an informal meeting at the United Nations to discuss the humanitarian situation in Misrata. The idea being that they would shock everyone with tales of suffering from the city and this would be used as an excuse to intensify the bombing campaign to increase pressure on the Libyan government in order to affect regime change. This appears to have backfired somewhat with the UN giving Britain permission to evacuate some 5000 people from Misrata and suggesting that if Britain is really that concerned about the lack of medical supplies it might want to provide the city with some medical supplies rather then video cameras.

At the meeting the UN were also able to announce that away from Britain's efforts the Libyan government had given permission for a UN mission to set up in Tripoli to monitor the humanitarian situation. Normally this should be celebrated but in this case it could cause more problems then it solves. When the UN operate in war zones they do so with armed security personnel even when a UN peacekeeping force is not in place. This armed security is provided by Private Military Security Contractors (PMSC) and one of the largest suppliers of security to the UN is a British company called Defense Systems Limited (DSL). Apart from providing security for the UN DSL also work closely with British Petroleum (BP) and there are still many unanswered questions about the role the company played in the start of the Libyan revolt. Therefore dispatching more DSL staff to Libya is only likely to make the situation worse.

Also in an attempt to shore up support for the operation the Americans yesterday (17/4/11) gave an estimate of how long they think the operation will last although never missing an opportunity to prey on the weak and vulnerable this was disguised as a comment on the Japanese nuclear crisis. While I think the situation around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will continue to cause the Japanese problems for the next 30 years 6-9 months seems like a fair estimate for what the Americans are planing for Libya.

The reason why yesterday's attempt to re-take Ajdabiya failed was because you know those weapons and training that western forces are not giving the Libyan rebels well they're starting to turn up on the front line. That means that my best guess is that the rebel training camp near Al Marj being operated by American and (under duress) Egyptian special forces is running a three week training program covering drill, weapons handling, battlefield communications, and basic tactics with an intake of around 100 new students per week. That means after 6 months they will have trained up around 2520 rebel fighters and after 9 months they will have trained up around 3780 rebels. Once the order is given these fighters will launch a full scale offensive, with NATO air support, against the Libyan government's approx 10,000 better trained combat veterans. However as the Libyan government forces are expected to experience significant force depletion after a 10 month NATO bombing campaign and are spread out across most of Libya the hope is that the rebel force will be strong enough to advance on Tripoli and overthrow the government.