Operation Oil Theft: Week 3. Day 1.

Since my last post of the topic the Libyan rebels have halted their withdrawal back to Benghazi, advanced back out of Ajdabiya and are digging in outside Brega possibly with a view to re-taking the town. On Friday (1/4/11) it emerged that on Wednesday (30/3/11) NATO aircraft attacked a Libyan government vehicle on the western outskirts of Brega. As this vehicle was an ammunition supply truck when it exploded it really exploded destroying two houses, killing 7 civilians and wounding 23 more. This incident coupled with the fact that the international community no longer seem prepared to be swayed by atrocity propaganda means that the rebels have finally, six weeks into the conflict, stopped sending unarmed civilians onto the front line.

Today (2/4/11) at approx 00:00 local time a convoy of five rebel vehicles including an ambulance were attacked by a NATO aircraft, believed to be a USAF A-10, as they advanced from Ajdabiya to Brega. 15 rebel fighters were killed in the incident. While it is still very early days and NATO have only just begun their own investigation what appears to have happened is that an anti-aircraft gunner on one of the vehicles opened fire on the NATO aircraft so the aircraft returned fire and won. Either that or the Americans did it on purpose in order to issue a challenge to India (UNSC member) over the scope and rules of engagement of resolution 1973(2011). India is currently closed on account of both hosting and playing in the final of the Cricket World Cup. As the big bad CIA really don't get cricket this is said to be making them both confused and angry.

Another thing that's been making the Americans angry is that over the last couple of days a US envoy has been visiting Tripoli in an attempt to get the Libyan government to agree to a ceasefire proposed by the rebels. Quite reasonably the Libyan government refused as some of the terms of the ceasefire are ridiculous. For example it insists that the Libyan government must immediately allow all forms of peaceful protest where "peaceful" seems to be defined as letting the rebels shoot at what they want when they want. The problem is that even with a ceasefire in place Libya will still be in a state of civil war. With a security situation that bad no nation on earth would allow protest, peaceful or otherwise, and nations like the US, Britain and France would impose martial law with curfews and bans on public assembly. By denying the Libyan government the right to do the same this ceasefire is no ceasefire at all. Instead it is just another attempt to allow a foreign power bring about regime change in Libya. The US are pushing for this in the arrogant belief that they can swoop in at the last minute and steal control of the rebels off Britain. I don't think that will be possible because the relationship between Britain and the Libyan rebels is very deep and has been going on for longer then I've been alive.

I think a better idea would be for a line of demarcation between the rebels and government forces between Ajdabiya and Benghazi (33N) that is policed by NATO. Then after things have calmed down a bit people in the main area of Libya such as Misrata who want to live in Free Libya can move there and people in Free Libya who want to live in the main area of Libya can also move. After things have calmed down even further the people in Free Libya can hold a vote to decide if they want to break away and become a Kosovo style independent state.

Speaking of elections following civil wars over 800 people have been killed in Abidjan, the capital of Ivory Coast (Cote D'Ivorie). What's been going on there is that in November 2010 the incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo lost an election to his much more popular and competent rival Alassane Ouattara by a margin of around 45% to 55%. Although the election was declared free and fair by a variety of international observers Gbagbo claimed that there had been a massive fraud and simply refused to leave office. Eventually rebel forces from the countries civil war that ended in 2007 re-mobilised to remove Gbagbo from office and marched, unopposed, from the north of the country to Abidjan in the south. Surrounded in the Presidential Palace Gbagbo and his armed supporters now seem to be trying to kill everything in sight in a what looks like a doomed final stand.

All this means that there is a much clearer case for international, humanitarian intervention in Ivory Coast then there ever was for intervention in Libya. However because Ivory Coast's main export is coca rather then oil the international community have done very little. In fact by causing so much fuss over Libya they've probably given Gbagbo the confidence to carry on in the mistaken belief that he'll be forgotten about while everyone's busy with Libya. Therefore I think the 800 killed in Ivory Coast should be added to the humanitarian cost of the Libya adventure.