Egyptian Friction

Today (13/2) the traditional start of the Egyptian working week has seen clashes between protesters and the Egyptian military as soldiers attempted to clear demonstrators out of Tahrir square. The level of violence used by either side was so low that if it had taken place at a British football match I probably wouldn't even bother to mention it.

The problem the protesters have is that although Mubarak has resigned very little has actually changed. The state of emergency is still in effect, the government and civil service are still packed with member's of Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) and the Mubarak appointed Prime Minister has started to make worrying statements about the need to restore "order" and "security" to Egypt rather then the more democratic values of "peace" and "stability." This creates the fear amongst the demonstrators that as soon as the protests end Egypt will fall back to the way it was only with Suleiman as dictator rather then Mubarak. The military could help to reduce this fear by explaining the details of how they are going to turn Egypt into a democratic nation. I think it's still too early to start fixing dates and setting rigid timetables but the military should certainly open a dialogue with the Egyptian people over the problems it has with electing a new Parliament and amending the constitution such as the role of the Muslim Brotherhood and what safeguards can be but in place to solve those problems such as a separation of Church (or Mosque) and State or a cap on the number of seats any one party can hold in Parliament.

The problems facing the military are probably even more complicated. Their first problem is that they're the military. This means that there is nothing in their culture or training that prepares them for policing a civilian population or running a democratic society. So they're being forced to learn just like everybody else in Egypt is being forced to learn. The military's second problem is one of security and secrecy. What they are being asked to do is completely re-form the very core of the Egyptian state under the full glare of the World's media and the ever watchful eyes of their regional rivals. This is the sort of thing that makes people involved in military intelligence cry. It's just my personal opinion but the extraordinary nature of the situation means that it may be worth turning traditional doctrine upside down. Already there is Israeli, American and Islamist involvement in the situation in Egypt and the European Union and the United Nations are expected to get involved soon. Rather then trying to manage all these conflicting influences within secret committees it might be worth making the process as open as possible by using a Parliamentary system so the scrutiny of ordinary Egyptians helps to keep all these outsiders honest.

The third major problem the Egyptian military has is that the disruption caused by the protests in terms of strikes, days of lost business, blocked roads and travel bans keeping tourists away is costing Egypt and estimated US$200million per day. If this carries on for much longer it won't matter what sort of government Egypt has because the entire country will be bankrupt.

Therefore rather then trying to silence the protesters the military is trying to break up the demonstrations so the roads can be re-opened, people can get to work and the travel bans can be lifted. Although I think the historic nature of what is going on in Egypt is actually more likely to attract tourist then deter them the protesters can help the military with this problem by limiting their big protests to once a week on Friday's and restricting the protest camp in Tahrir square to the grassy, pedestrian areas rather then the roads. This compromise will allow Tahrir square to continue to act as a focal point for the revolution which is important in maintaining momentum while still allowing people to go about their day to day business.