The EU: Victory's Dentist.

Britain is continuing the struggle with it's exit from the European Union (EU). The famous Brexit.

The British people are not stupid. They can see that the problem is exclusively the fault of Britain's Parliament.

The British Prime Minister Theresa May, on behalf of the British government, reached a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU back in November 2018.

The British government put this Withdrawal Agreement to Parliament in January 2019. Parliament rejected it.

The British government again put this Withdrawal Agreement to Parliament in March 2019. Parliament rejected it.

The only reason why Parliament keeps doing this is that MP's want to remain in the EU.

Leaving would force them to actually do a days work, for the first time in about 40 years. In the process exposing to voters just how utterly incompetent many of their elected representatives actually are.

Shamefully Parliament is going to continue behaving like this until Britain actually leaves the EU.

The date Britain will leave the EU has long been set in law. A week from today, March 29th 2019 (29/3/19).

Failure to adopt the Withdrawal Agreement before that date will lead a turbulent period. A No Deal scenario

Parliament will find itself recalled in emergency session. First to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Then to pass the technical, supporting legislation needed to implement the Withdrawal Agreement.

To avoid this Prime Minister May, on behalf of the British government, sought an extension from the EU.

That would see the date of Brexit moved from March 29th (29/3/19) to the end of June 2019. On condition that Parliament adopted the Withdrawal Agreement prior to March 29th.

The EU itself has now spectacularly screwed up that request.

They have granted an extension until April 12th (12/4/19). On condition that Parliament adopts the Withdrawal Agreement prior to that date.

If Parliament fails to adopt the Withdrawal Agreement by April 12th (12/4/19) the EU has granted a further extension until May 22nd (22/5/19). A move clearly designed to encourage Parliament to once again reject the Withdrawal Agreement.

This scheme has the fingerprints of EU Council (EUCO) President Donald Tusk all over it.

Donald Tusk encapsulates everything that is wrong with the EU.

In 2010 Tusk was the Prime Minister of Poland. At a time when the nation was deciding whether to join the EU. Something which met with significant opposition amongst Tusk's own party.

Then in April 2010 a plane carrying Polish President, Lech Kaczynski crashed. Also killed in this crash were the majority of Tusk's party who opposed joining the EU.

With his opponents dead then Prime Minister Tusk was able to bring Poland into the EU. Then rise within the EU's ranks to become it's council President.

As such there has been a persistent rumour that Donald Tusk is so committed to the EU project and his own quest for power he murdered 96 of his own people.

By dragging out Brexit until May 22nd (22/5/19) Tusk is hoping that it will be cancelled all together. This seems a faint hope.

Prime Minister May, on behalf of the British government, has made clear that it will not be calling off Brexit.

Last Thursday (14/3/19) Parliament voted on two amendments.

One on calling a second referendum on Brexit. The other on allowing Parliament to take decision making on Brexit out of the hands of the British government.

Both of these amendments were defeated.

On Monday (18/3/19) the Speaker of Parliament, John Bercow, ruled that defeated motions and amendments cannot be reintroduced with the same Parliamentary session.

There is some debate whether that means between recesses. Such as the Easter recess which begins April 4th (4/4/19) and ends April 23rd (23/4/19). Or whether it means in the five year life of the Parliament. Which, in this case, ends in the spring of 2022.

Either way those defeated motions on a second referendum or Parliament seizing control cannot be reintroduced until April 23rd (23/4/19). At the earliest.

As such Tusk's only real hope of blocking Brexit is bringing down the British government.

In December 2018 an attempt was made by the governing Conservative Party to bring down the government. It failed. As a result the Conservative Party cannot make another attempt until December 2019. At the earliest.

The opposition Labour Party could attempt to bring down the government. However that would trigger a general election, suspending Parliament well into June 2019.

Strictly speaking EUCO President Tusk does not get a vote in EU Council decisions.

So it is interesting how he's been able to impose his will on the 27(+1) leaders of the EU.

Like most con tricks the main element has been time pressure.

Telling EU leaders that they had to make a decision before today's (22/3/19) second day of the summit. Dealing with the EU's relationship with China.

Further telling them they had to make a decision before midnight (CET). To avoid clashing with the memorial to the Christchurch shootings.

There has also been a large element of intimidation.

Two day's before the summit, on March 20th (20/3/19), Hungary's governing Fidesz Party was suspended from the European People's Party. A powerful grouping within the European Parliament.

This follows the decision by the European Parliament in September 2018 to suspend Hungary's voting rights. It can be seen as a precursor to the EUCO implementing that decision, ultimately leading to Hungary being expelled from the EU.

The Hungary decision serves to intimidate the entire Visegrad Group of four EU member states. Made up of Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Tusk's native Poland.

Three nations that will be particularly affected by a No Deal Brexit are the Republic of Ireland, France and the Netherlands.

The Republic of Ireland is rather sanguine about this. After all they are used to dealing with Britain's worst excesses and have a long history or treating border rules more as a suggestion than a requirement.

The Netherlands however have recently gone through a political shock of their own. In the wake of Monday's (18/3/19) Utrecht terror attack the far-right, anti-EU Forum for Democracy Party came second in Wednesday's (20/3/19) Senate elections.

As a result Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has got be paranoid any economic shock caused by Brexit could bring down his government.

I don't think I need to remind anyone how unpopular French President Emmanuel Macron is.

France has been burning in protest against him since November 2018. This weekend France is being forced to deployed armed troops to the streets. To protect Macron from what is now seriously starting to look like a dictator toppling revolution.

As a result President Macron has got to be worried that any short term economic shock caused by Brexit will be what finally causes him to fall.

So both the Netherlands and France have agreed to this delay to buy time for their own No Deal planning. In doing that they seem to have lost sight of the bigger picture.

The fact that two EU nations have blinked in the face of a No Deal Brexit will see Hard Brexiteers double down on their opposition to the Withdrawal Agreement. Making it more likely the extension will be until May 22nd (22/5/19) rather than April 12th (12/4/19).

If EUCO President Tusk does succeed in stopping Britain from leaving you have to seriously worry about the future of the EU.

As I've said Hungary seems to be on the path to being expelled from the EU.

Tusk is deeply unpopular in his native Poland. To the point his close friend and political ally Pawel Adamowicz, Mayor of Gdansk was killed back in January 2019. A killing which has been blamed on Poland's government.

Even those accusations seem to speed up the possibility of Poland being expelled from the EU.

There are already anti-EU parties in power in Greece and Italy. They're surging across the EU, particularly in Austria, the Netherlands and Sweden. As I've said France is currently in flames in protest against pro-EU President Macron.

So in his quest to stand as Emperor EUCO President Tusk may well be the one who causes the Empire to crumble beneath his feet.

What's the old saying about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

12:40 on 22/3/19 (UK date).

Edited at around 15:10 on 22/3/19 (UK date) to add;

That of course is all just the EU's counter-offer. If it does not meet Britain's requirements Britain is under absolutely no obligation to take the EU up on the offer.

The idea of a May 22nd (22/5/19) extension can be dismissed out of hand.

It's an attempt by an EU body to overthrow a lawfully and democratically elected foreign government. Not only that the official responsible has no authority within that EU body.

Now they've been given time to think I'd be very surprised if any EU leader would be prepared to acknowledge Tusk even made the suggestion. Let alone that it was included in any formal offer.

If all those MP's who rejected the Withdrawal Agreement last week apologise to Prime Minister May Parliament may be given a vote this coming week. On adopting the Withdrawal Agreement as the sole way of taking up the offer of an extension until April 12th (12/4/19).

Otherwise it's Brexit on March 29th (29/3/19) as scheduled.

France and the Netherlands failure to prepare in time is their problem. Not Britain's.