Within Syria there continue to be five main areas of operations.
Reading from right-to-left;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
In the period between mid-December 2018 and January 2019 there were major developments in all five of these areas.
The most significant of these developments was US President Donald Trump's announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18). That US troops were to be withdrawn from Syria.
I covered this here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4.html
Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4_27.html
Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4.html
And here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-5.html
In terms of managing Turkey's threat to invade the Shangri-La area of Syria Trump's announcement was a massive success.
On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) Turkey's invasion of Shangri-La was imminent.
A combined force of 35,000 made up of the regular Turkish Military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA) had been assembled. Both on Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and it's western boundary with the Garvaghy Road area.
Training for that invasion force had been declared complete on November 30th 2018 (30/11/18). Preparatory shelling of Shangri-La had begun on October 27th 2018 (27/10/18).
On December 21st 2018 (21/12/18) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan suddenly postponed his invasion plan.
Shangri-La is currently under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition. Long ago they had learnt not to rely on either the US or the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
In August 2016 CJTFOIR, and particularly the US under former President Obama abandoned the SDF. It allowed Turkey to invade and illegally occupy the Garvaghy Road area of Syria. This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La.
The last town in Garvaghy Road Turkish forces captured was al-Bab. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij. The SDF controlled town which marks the western boundary of Shangri-La.
When
the battle for al-Bab began in November 2016 Erdogan made it quite
clear that once the town had been captured the combined TSK and UTA force would move
onto to attack Manbij. Including the SDF and CJTFOIR forces stationed
there.
CJTFOIR was not prepared to protect either itself nor the SDF from this impending Turkish attack. So it fell to Russia and the Syrians to protect them from Turkey.
In late December 2016 Russia
moved its military police and some Syrian troops into the town of
al-Arimah. Which sits around 20km (12 miles) north-east
of al-Bab and around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Manbij.
This meant that if they wished to attack Manbij Erdogan's forces would first have to go through the Russian and Syrian forces at Arimah.
In January 2018 CJTFOIR again abandoned the SDF. It allowed Turkey to attack the SDF directly in Afrin Canton.
Again it fell to Russia and Syria to protect the SDF from Turkey. They moved their forces into the roughly 30kmsq (20 milesq) area around the town of Tal Rifaat.
Tal Rifaat is technically part of Afrin Canton. It sits on the boundary between the Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, Central Syria and Sudetenland areas. Around 4km (2.5 miles) south of the town of Azaz. Around 6km (3.5 miles) east of Afrin City. Around 8km (5 miles) north of Aleppo City.
This meant that if Turkey wished to attack the SDF in this Tal Rifaat Pocket they would first have to go through the Russian and Syrian forces deployed there.
So when CJTFOIR and the US appeared to abandon the SDF for a third time they immediately turned to Russia and Syria for support.
Within hours of US President Trump's announcement on December 19th (19/12/18) the SDF entered into Russian brokered talks with the Syrians. Initially at the Shangri-La town of Ayn Issa, around 80km (50 miles) north of Raqqa City.
These Russia, Syria, SDF negotiations continued through December 2018 into mid-January 2019. Amid various rumour and counter-rumour over their content and objectives.
The main objective of the negotiations though has been to see either Syrian or Russian forces take control of Shangri-La's western boundary with Garvaghy Road and its northern border with Turkey.
To this end on December 25th 2018 (25/12/18) a Syrian convoy of around 40 vehicles entered Arimah.
First in order to reinforce the line between Turkish forces at al-Bab and SDF forces at Manbij. Then in preparation for the possibility of control of Manbij being transferred from the SDF to the Syrians.
These negotiations between the SDF, Russia and Syria have completely upended Erdogan's plans to invade Shangri-La.
The reason why Erdogan wants to invade Shangri-La is the same as the reason he's invaded Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton. While deploying a small TSK force to defend the Sudetenland.
Erdogan is trying to annex as much Syrian territory as possible as part of his New Ottoman Empire.
However even in the extremely permissive environment created by former US President Obama Erdogan can't just come out and say this.
Even the current UN Special Envoy on Syria Geir Pedersen would lose any credibility if he claimed his objective was a violation of the UN Charter. The same UN Charter which gives him any and all authority to act.
So instead Erdogan is claiming that the SDF is the same thing as the Turkish group the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Which continues to be listed as a terror group by both the US and the EU.
This is simply not true. The SDF is a coalition made up of Kurdish, Assyrian/Syriac
Christian,
Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. Due to the expansion along the Euphrates River and the inclusion of the local tribes the SDF is now actually a majority Arab force.
The Kurdish element of the SDF, the Peoples Protection Units (YPG) is entirely separate from the PKK. The fact that one is a group of Turkish Kurds while the other is a group of Syrian Kurds should be something of a clue that they are not the same group.
However with this false claim going unchallenged Erdogan has been able to claim that he needs to clear the SDF from Turkey's borders. In order to protect Turkey for; "PKK Terror!"
The SDF handing control of Shangri-La's northern border to either Russian or Syrian forces completely removes Erdogan's justification for invading Shangri-La.
The mere announcement of negotiations between the SDF and the Syrians immediately sent Erdogan into a massive panic spiral. One which was rather hilarious to watch.
It's long been accepted that if Erdogan believes even a fraction of the things he says then he's suffering from a severe form of mental illness. US President Trump's withdrawal announcement however not only left Erdogan sounding crazy but also looking pretty crazy.
At a public rally on December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) Erdogan admitted for the first time that the negotiations between the SDF and Syria completely removed his justification for invading Shangri-La. He went on to condemn Trump's withdrawal announcement accusing the US of engaging in; "Psychological Warfare."
This is the equivalent of Erdogan loudly asking the people around him if they think he is going mad. It's a few short steps away from Erdogan wandering the streets in his underwear screaming at passing cars about the CIA mind control rays.
On the topic of insane rants one of the most ludicrous response to Trump's withdrawal announcement however was that it was a massive gift to Russia. From a US President who we all know is secretly a Russian spy.
This is a theory that was particularly put forward by the Democrat Party Senator for Delaware Chris Coons. It certainly found a lot of traction in Muslim Brotherhood media outlets such as CNN and the Washington Post.
The truth is I can think of nothing Russia would want less than refereeing a dispute between Syria, the SDF and Turkey.
Russia and Syria have been allies since the Russian Federation came into being in the 1990's. Syria's alliance with the Soviet Union extends back far beyond that. Due to the pro-ISIL sanctions the US has been imposing since 2014 Russia has recently been forced into something of an economic marriage of convenience with Turkey.
Turkey wants to invade and occupy Syria. Annexing it as a province of Erdogan's New Ottoman Empire.
Syria doesn't want to be invaded and occupied by Turkey. It certainly doesn't want to become a province in Erdogan's New Ottoman Empire.
Trying to support both of these diametrically opposed positions puts Russia in a near impossible situation.
It is very similar to the situation Russia finds itself in over the Nagorno-Karabakh Region (NKR). This is one of the World's oldest frozen conflicts. Similar to the Kashmir conflict between Pakistan and India which has recently become somewhat less than frozen.
The NKR is a disputed territory between majority Christian Armenia and majority Muslim Azerbaijan. Russia is closely allied to Armenia and Azerbaijan. So when Armenia and Azerbaijan fight over the NKR it puts Russia in the near impossible situation of having to simultaneously support and oppose both sides at the same time.
In fact the last big round of fighting over the NKR came in January and February 2016. This occurred when Azerbaijan which is also closely allied to Turkey attacked Armenia which is most certainly not allied to Turkey.
It just so happened to occur when Russia/Turkey relations were at their all time lowest point. Following the Turkey's shooting down of a Russian Su-24 over Syria in November 2015.
It also happened to occur just before US Democrats started demanding ever tougher sanctions on Russia as part of their campaign to rig the November 2016 US Presidential Election.
As you could almost predict the Russian brokered negotiations between Syria and the SDF over Shangri-La quickly escalated into negotiations between Russia and Turkey over Shangri-La.
Erdogan immediately attempted to leverage the Sudetenland as part of those negotiations. Starting on December 28th 2018 (28/12/18). The same day he was starting to worry about the CIA mind control rays.
Frustratingly I will have to pick this up tomorrow.
19:05 on 5/3/19 (UK date).
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