The Muelling Died Out Long Ago.

In November 2016 the US held a Presidential Election as it does every four years.

This saw Hillary Clinton representing the Democrat Party face off against Donald Trump representing the Republican Party.

As with other members of his Democrat Party the then incumbent President Barack Obama was desperate for Hillary Clinton to replace him. This would allow his policies including the US support for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and their associates to be continue.

As they are now ISIL and their associates were being opposed by Russia at the time. Therefore all the Democrats thought they needed to do was link Trump to Russia and the support for ISIL and Al Qaeda they shared with the American people would sweep Hillary Clinton to a resounding victory.

To this end the Democrats paid some US$9million to a British company called Fusion GPS. Their task was to invent stories linking Trump to Russia.

The stories invented by Fusion GPS were then used by the Obama administration to force the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Justice (DoJ) to launch formal investigations. The purpose of these investigations being to disrupt the Republican Party election campaign and ensure the Democrat candidate became President.

Obviously this strategy failed, Hillary Clinton was defeated and Donald Trump became President of the US. However the Democrats were going to let a little thing like an election keep them from power.

So in May 2017 a Special Counsel investigation was opened into the Democrats claims. It is headed by Robert Mueller who given the Democrats mewling seems an appropriate choice.

A Special Counsel investigation is really the most powerful weapon in the arsenal of the US legal system.

It gets to act almost as Judge, Jury and Executioner without the levels of oversight that restrict more normal criminal investigations. For example unlike the police a Special Counsel investigation can issue subpoenas compelling witness testimony and access to private documents without the permission of a Judge.

In late June/early July 2017 Mueller's Special Counsel investigation secret impanelled a Grand Jury. This was only made public in early August 2017.

A Grand Jury is really only one of few checks on the vast powers of a Special Counsel investigation. Before a Special Counsel like Mueller can move from investigation to prosecution they must first convince a Jury made up of the general public that there is sufficient evidence to warrant an accusation being made.

Mueller spent the next four months trying to convince this Grand Jury that there was evidence to support the Democrats' accusations linking Trump to Russia. For four months he failed.

On October 27th (27/10/17) Mueller did finally win an argument and convince the Grand Jury that there was sufficient evidence to support allegations against two individuals; Paul Manafort and Richard Gates.

The problem was that the charges related to alleged attempts by the pair to avoid paying taxes on money they earned working for the government of Ukraine. Although Americans have a reputation for being terrible at world geography Ukraine is notably not Russia.

In August 2014 the Canadian delegation to NATO produced a map to illustrate just this point; https://twitter.com/canadanato/status/504651534198927361?lang=en

Also the alleged offences committed by Manafort and Gates date back to 2012. This is a time when Mitt Romney was challenging Barack Obama for the US Presidency on behalf of the Republican Party. Manafort and Gates' alleged actions at that time have nothing to do with Donald Trump or his 2016 Presidential campaign.

At the same time the Manafort and Gates indictments were announced it was also confirmed that George Papadopoulous had pleaded guilty to a charge of lying to the FBI. Specifically in a question over whether as a Trump campaign worker he had contact with the Russian Ambassador to the US.

It is not clear whether Papadopoulous' prosecution was authorised by the Grand Jury or whether he chose to plead guilty before matters to that stage.

One thing that is clear though is the charge against Papadopoulous only exists because of the investigation. It provides no evidence to support the claims which led to the investigation being opened.

On Friday December 1st (1/12/17) it was announced that President Trump's former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn had also plead guilty to a charge of lying to the FBI. Specifically in a question of whether he had contact with the Russian Ambassador to the US in his role as a member of Trump's Presidential Transition team.

Again it is not clear whether Flynn's prosecution was authorised by the Grand Jury or whether he chose to plead guilty before matters to that stage.

One thing that is clear though is that it was a very stupid thing for Flynn to do.

Under certain circumstances lying to the FBI can be considered a criminal offence. If that lie can be proved there is little defence that can be offered. However the act Flynn lied about is not in any way improper let alone illegal. Therefore there was no need to cover it up.

The US Constitution establishes that the nation is a democracy to be run by a President who is both Head of Government and Head of State. That President is chosen by a public vote to be held on the first Tuesday in November in the year prior to the expiry of the existing President's four year term of office.

The candidate who wins the most votes through the electoral college system on that first Tuesday in November becomes the next President in January of the following year. During the period between that November and January the US effectively has two Presidents; The incoming President and the outgoing President.

In 1963 the US passed a law to clarify the division of Presidential power during this transition period. It is known as the Presidential Transition Act 1963 or Public Law 88-277.

This law recognises the incoming President as the successful candidate of office. It requires all branches of the Federal government to provide the incoming President with the resources they need to conduct of the affairs of the Federal Government, both domestic and foreign.

Some who supported Hillary Clinton have suggested that Flynn's contact with the Russian Ambassador could represent a violation of the Logan Act 1799. This prevents private US citizens having contact with foreign governments with which the US is in dispute.

The key phrase in the Logan Act is; "without authority of the United States." In his contact with the Russian Ambassador Flynn was authorised by both the US Constitution and the Presidential Transition Act.

Demonstrating that Flynn was specifically directed by incoming President Trump only makes him less guilty. Not that "authorised by the US" comes in any stronger form then the Constitution and supplemental laws in support of that Constitution.

In their excitement ABC News published an entirely false story claiming that Flynn's contacts with the Russian Ambassador prior to the transition period. This example of "Fake News" cost the US economy potentially billions of dollars by wiping 350 points off the main stock exchange.

Brian Ross who broke this Fake News has since been suspended from ABC News. In what seems likely to be a precursor to him being fired permanently.

The ABC News story about Flynn is entirely false. However even if it were true it would still have no bearing on the Logan Act.

US Presidential candidates are themselves chosen by a public vote. Once they receive enough votes to become the candidate of a recognised political party they are given governmental security clearance. This is done specifically to facilitate them having contact with foreign governments via Ambassadors in order to ensure a smooth transition of power should they be elected.

The granting of that security clearance represents an authorisation by the US as per the Logan Act.

With their claim that Flynn's actions violated the Logan Act having been shot down those who supporter Hillary Clinton have quickly changed tack.

They are now speculating whether President Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey represented an obstruction of justice. There they are on even more shaky ground than their claims about the Logan Act.

The offence of obstruction of justice can only occur when a law enforcement official is obstructed in the course of their lawful duty. It cannot occur if the law enforcement official is acting unlawfully.

For example if a police officer attempts to enter your premises without a search warrant or probable cause they are acting unlawfully. As such you are more than entitled to use reasonable force to remove them from those premises.

The FBI, the DoJ and the Office for Special Counsel are all branches of the Federal Government bound by the Presidential Transition Act. That act requires them; "to be mindful of problems occasioned by transitions in the office of President."

One of the most obvious problems occasioned by the Presidential transition is that the outgoing President wouldn't want to leave office. Therefore they may instruct officers of the government such as the military or law enforcement to block the transition to the elected President in order to keep themselves or their designated successor in power.

During the transition from President Obama to President Trump this was actually something the World was dealing with in the African nation of Gambia.

In December 2016 Yahya Jammeh lost the election and then promptly refused to leave office. Fortunately the branches of the Gambian government sided with the elected President Adama Barrow and Jammeh was evicted from the Presidential Palace on January 21st 2017 (21/1/17).

As such if an outgoing President asks a branch of government to conduct an investigation into the incoming President the 1963 Act requires that branch of government to mindful of the fact this could be an attempt to disrupt the orderly transition of power.

Therefore if such an investigation is to proceed the branch of government must have very strong probable cause to suggest it is necessary to preserve the rule of law. A dossier provided by the outgoing President's designated successor simply does not cut it.

As yet nothing has come to light that provides the probable cause to warrant the launching of the investigation. As such it seems that by conducting the investigation the FBI et al were acting unlawfully under the terms of the Presidential Transition Act.

If it can be found that those government officers were mindful of the fact the order to open an investigation was simply an outgoing President trying to disrupt the orderly transfer of power but gone along with it anyway then they have committed treason. One of the most serious criminal offences that exists.

You most certainly cannot be prosecuted for obstructing someone as they attempt to commit an unlawful act. Particularly not one this serious.

Flynn's guilty plea actually strengthens the case that the FBI were acting unlawfully. As with Papadopoulous it is an offence that has been created entirely by the investigation. It offers nothing to by way of evidence to support the notion the investigation is in any way warranted.

If Mueller were desperate to secure just any indictment regardless of whether it has anything to do with either Trump or Russia there is a much more serious allegation against Flynn which he could have chosen to pursue.

It is well established that throughout 2016 Flynn was working as a paid agent of the Turkish government. However he failed to register the fact that he was a foreign agent.  

This failure to register as a foreign agent is a clear criminal offence. Even if no-one seems interested in prosecuting Khazir Khan who introduced Hillary Clinton as the Democrats Presidential candidate for failing to declare that he is a paid agent of Saudi Arabia.

Mueller's failure to prosecute Flynn over his work for the Turkish government seems to be driven entirely by the political relationship between the US and Turkey. This is extremely tense at the moment.

Turkey of course helped to create ISIL in the hope of annexing Syria as part of a new Ottoman Empire. With ISIL being almost entirely eradicated Turkey has pursued this dream of a new empire by sending regular Turkish troops to illegally annex two areas of northern Syria.

As they stood in the way of Turkey's irregular ISIL force the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) are currently standing in the way of Turkey's dream of empire. As as result Turkey is putting huge amounts of pressure on the US to disarm the SDF in order to allow Turkish forces to attack and defeat them.

Then of course there is the issue of Fethullah Gulen.

Gulen is a Turkish preacher of the Sufi branch of Islam. This is the branch of Islam that was attacked in Egypt's Sinai on November 24th (24/11/17) with the loss of 305 lives.

Sufi Islam is really the polar opposite of the Salafi form of Islam practiced the Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It almost goes without saying then that in 2013 Erdogan tried to have Gulen jailed for dangerous ideas forcing Gulen into exile in Pennsylvania, US.

In 2016 the Turkish military rose up against Erdogan's Islamist autocracy but Obama and CNN helped to keep him in power. Since then Erdogan has accused Gulen of being behind the rising and demanded the US extradite him. 

It must be said though that Turkey has not yet issued a formal extradition request. Nor offered any evidence linking Gulen to the rising.

One of the rumours is that in his role as an agent of the Turkish government Flynn offered to kidnap Gulen from the US and transfer him to Turkish custody.

Then there is the Mehmet Atilla gold trader case.

This is something that's been rumbling in the background of US-Turkey relations for a while now. However the day before the Flynn announcement on November 30th (30/11/17) the trial formally opened in Federal Court in New York, US.

Atilla is accused by the US of using gold to launder money from the sale of Iranian oil & gas in violation of US sanctions. Sanctions that were of course introduced under Obama as one of Hillary Clinton's greatest foreign policy failures and the US have since apologised for. 

Atilla's co-accused is Reza Zarrab. Like it is claimed Flynn has done he has taken a plea deal in exchange for testifying against his co-conspirators. In his first day of testimony Zarrab claimed that the entire oil smuggling operation was directed by Erdogan.

This is interesting because it's been well established that Erdogan supported ISIL by selling their smuggled oil to great personal profit to him and his family. 

The Atilla case could be a discreet way for the US to prosecute Erdogan for that without also making him liable for ISIL's many crimes against humanity. However it could also be the US showing that it's only Iran it hates. ISIL and their crimes are still considered valued friends.

Erdogan's response to the Atilla case has been predictably furious producing a flurry of activity on December 1st (1/12/17).

From a US perspective the most significant development was Turkey issuing an arrest warrant for retired CIA President Graham Fuller. They accuse Fuller of working with Gulen to direct the 2016 rising. Again though they have failed to offer any evidence.

The majority of Erdogan's fury though has been directed at his domestic opponents. Most notably the Republican People's Party (CHP) who are Turkey's formal party of opposition. 

Erdogan has instructed Turkey's DoJ to investigate the CHP for money laundering. He is also personally suing the families of CHP officials for libel for making public details of Erdogan's oil deals with ISIL.

As such it seems clear that Mueller's decision not to prosecute Flynn over his role as a Turkish agent is driven entirely by political concerns.

The Flynn announcement and the start of the Atilla trial both occurred during the latest round of meeting in the Geneva Process on Syria. These began on November 28th (28/11/17) and there are rumours they may continue until December 15th (15/12/17).

Both the Flynn and Atilla announcement seem intended to send a very clear message to the Geneva meeting;

"The US is more interested in continuing hostility and aggression towards Iran and Russia that it is in preserving the integrity of its own political and legal system."

With Russia and Iran being the main backers of Syria you would think that would give succour to groups like Al Qaeda who wish to overthrow the Syrian government along with its political and legal system.

The fact that Mueller has timed his announcement on Flynn for maximum political impact further undermines the legality of the entire investigation. 

It shows that Mueller and his team are only interested in enforcing the law when if coincides with their own political agenda. A political agenda they certainly have no democratic mandate to pursue.

The Flynn announcement also occurred literally minutes before the draw from the Russia hosted 2018 World Cup and overshadowed the entire proceeding.

I think its clear that the US very much wanted to boycott the 2018 World Cup. However with even Italy giving up its place to make sure the very anti-Russian Swedes had to go it was equally clear that no-one would be joining in the US in the boycott. So the US made sure they failed to qualify.

As you can't stop me talking about football I should also mention that some people have claimed that Russia rigged the World Cup draw to give themselves an easy group. I think the majority of these people were joking about an event which is meant to be fun.

At least I hope they were joking. If Russia had rigged the draw they certainly wouldn't have rigged it to produce that outcome.

The opening game of the 2018 World Cup will see Russia play Saudi Arabia on June 14th 2018 (14/6/18). Due to the conflict in Syria the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia is poor to say the least.

Since roughly 2012 Saudi Arabia has massively increased its oil output. This oversupply has collapsed the oil price. Saudi Arabia has been doing this in the hope of bankrupting Russia's oil based economy.

In 2013 Russia hosted the Winter Olympics. Saudi Arabia felt that Russia should not have this honour while it was supporting Syria. 

So Saudi Arabia dispatched Islamist terrorists to conduct attacks against the games. They conducted two bombings in Volgograd in December 2016 before a global effort stopped them.

By way of compensation for not being able to conduct terror attacks against the Olympics former US President Obama illegally overthrew the government in Russia's neighbour Ukraine triggering a civil war.  

Obama then used that war to impose sanctions of Russia to aid Saudi Arabia's efforts to bankrupt its oil based economy.

It is those sanctions Flynn is said to have discussed with the Russian Ambassador.

Elsewhere in Group A you have Egypt who have this player called Mohamed Salah and Uruguay who have this player called Luis Suarez.

You may have heard of them.

18:10 on 4/12/17 (UK date).