Thursday, 23 November 2017

Operation Featherweight: Month 41, Week 2, Day 7.

In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were at their most powerful.

They controlled large swathes of both Iraq and Syria. They'd declared themselves to be an Islamist Caliphate. Their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be it's Caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa to be its capital.

Now in the winter of 2017 ISIL have been reduced to just a few scattered positions in Syria. Mainly around the Euphrates River basin.

Within this area of north-eastern Syria there have been two distinct forces conducting multiple operations against ISIL.

One of these is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a coalition formed by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in October 2015.

Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

Prior to the formation of the SDF the YPG had driven ISIL from the entire Syria/Turkey border from the Euphrates River in the west to Syria's border with Iraq. This was completed in July 2015 with the liberation of Tal Abyad - a border town around 45km (25 miles) east of the Euphrates.

In August 2015 the YPG drove ISIL from the city of Hasakah. This sits around 60km (35 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 75km (45 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.

The liberations of Tal Abyad and Hasakah put the SDF in control of a vast area of north-eastern Syria from the Euphrates to Syria's borders with Turkey and Iraq. For operational reasons this area which cuts across parts of several of Syria's provinces has been designated; "Shangri-La."

In November 2016 the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates."

The first phase of this operation saw the SDF advance south from positions around 70km (45 miles) north of Raqqa. This was completed in late November 2016 with the SDF taking up positions around 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa having liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq).

The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River effectively from where it enters Syria from Turkey. This was completed in January 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Lake Assad around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 3,200kmsq (1.920 milesq).

The third phase of the operation saw the SDF advance to take up positions east of Raqqa. This was completed in March 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Karamah around 30km (20 miles) east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 1000kmsq (600 milesq).

On March 23rd (23/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa. This sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 50km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. The adjoining Tabqa Dam forms Lake Assad out of the river.

On May 5th (5/11/17) the SDF completed the liberation of the town of Tabqa and took control of the Tabqa Dam.

On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. After of 133 days on intense urban fighting Raqqa was fully liberated on October 19th (19/10/17).

Whilst fighting to liberate Raqqa the SDF were also advancing along the northern bank of the Euphrates from Karamah to Deir-ez-Zour City. This sits around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates.

On October 14th (14/10/17) the SDF liberated an area known as Husayniyah area. This sits around 4km (2 miles) north-west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone. As a result its liberation secured SDF control of the northern banks of the Euphrates between Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zour.

Alongside the Wrath of Euphrates operation the SDF have also been conducting a second operation within the Euphrates River basin. Launched on September 9th (9/9/17) this is codenamed; "Cizre Storm."

The only area of Syria north-east of the Euphrates River which does not fall under SDF control as part of Shangri-La is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.

Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.

Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.

The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.

Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).

The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.

The SDF's progress was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.

On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.

Constantly referring to these as; "The First Axis," "The Second Axis" etc gets tedious. So I designated them; "Aisling," "Niamh" and "Siobhan."

The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.

The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.

The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.

On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached and liberated as-Suwar. It then advanced north towards Markadah. On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis united just south of Markadah. They went on to liberate the town on October 20th (20/10/17).

Having united the Niamh and Siobhan axis went on to liberate both the east and west banks of the Khobar from Suwar to the Euphrates River. This was completed on November 6th (6/11/17).

The Niamh and Siobhan axis have continued their combined work. Both to liberate both banks of the Khobar from Suwar to Shadaddi and to fully secure the area between the Khobar and the Madan - Shadaddi line.

They have continued to make steady progress in this desert area. However it is progress that can only really be described in terms of GPS coordinates which I am not going to provide

On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.

On October 20th (20/10/17) the Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl.

On October 22nd (22/10/17) the Aisling axis had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.

On November 5th (5/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated the Sarhit, Shudayha, Younes, Galban and Shaitat Oil & Gas Fields. These small fields sit in an area just beyond the main Omar Oil & Gas Field.

Having raced across the Khobar the Aisling axis has mainly been concentrating on securing the area along the banks of the Euphrates between the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone and the Omar Oil & Gas Field.

By November 7th  (7/11/17) the Aisling axis had advanced from the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone to the town of Busayrah. This sits almost on a island directly where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.

On November 12th (12/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated Busayrah. It has since moved to fully secure the area between Busayrah and Diban.

On November 13th (13/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated al-Gharbi village between Shuhayl and Busrayah. On November 16th (16/11/17) it liberated al-Hawayji which sits between Shuhayl and Diban.

On November 17th (17/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated Diban. On November 20th (20/11/17) it liberated Tayyani which sits between Diban and al-Quriyah.

The Aisling axis has also been working from the Omar Oil & Gas Field back up to where the Euphrates and Khobar Rivers meet.

On November 10th (10/11/17) it liberated al-Omar town adjacent to the Oil & Gas Field. On November 15th (15/11/17) it liberated al-Khari which sits just south-west of the Tanak Oil & Gas Field.

Despite these SDF gains ISIL have retained the ability to launch hit-and-run offensives on SDF from desert bases.

On November 20th (20/11/17) ISIL conducted a sustained counter-offensive against the SDF close to the Tanak Oil & Gas Field. The SDF however were able to repel this attack.

As I've mentioned on November 5th (5/11/17) ISIL conducted Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) against a camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) located between the Jafra and al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. It killed at least 100 civilians.

On November 17th (17/11/17) ISIL conducted another VBIED attack against the same IDP camp. On this occasion at least 20 civilians were killed.

The second distinct force currently conducting operations against ISIL in north-eastern Syria are the Syrians themselves.

Since May 2017 the Syrians have been conducting operations to liberate the centre of Syria from ISIL. Both in the north and the south of the country.

To the north the Syrians liberated the town of Dalhah on July 30th (30/7/17). Dalhah sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

Meanwhile the Syrians were advancing west-to-east across the south of the country from the capital Damascus.  By June 9th (9/6/17) they succeeded in reaching the Iraqi border at al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.

From al-Tanf the Syrians have advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra was of course liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.

This established the al-Tanf - Palmyra Line.

On August 8th (8/8/17) Syrian forces from Dalhah and Palmyra converged on the town of as-Suknah. This around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra.

The Syrian convergence on as-Suknah marked the liberation of the last ISIL held town in Homs Province. It also established the Dalhah - Suknah Line.

From as-Suknah the Syrians objective has been to advance on the city of Deir-ez-Zour. This straddles the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 120km (70 miles) north-east of as-Suknah.

On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians reached Deir-ez-Zour City. In doing so they established the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.

On September 24th (24/9/17) the Syrians liberated Madan. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.

The liberation of Madan marked the complete liberation of the area between the Euphrates River and the Dalhah-Suknah Line and the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.

While the Syrians were doing this ISIL launched an offensive of their own.

Launched on September 28th (28/9/17) this was designated; "Abu Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." It was intended to break Syrian lines both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and Palmyra.

On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their own to counter the al-Adani offensive.

By October 6th (6/10/17) they had pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin. This sits on the Euphrates around 60km (35 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour.

On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians liberated Mayadin. In doing so they created the Suknah-Mayadin Line.

On November 3rd (3/11/17) the Syrians fully liberated Deir-ez-Zour City. The exception being a small presence of around 250 ISIL fighters on Hawijat Kati Island. This sits in the Euphrates north of the H7 Highway bridge.

On November 18th (18/11/17) the Syrians fully liberated Hawijat Kati Island.

At around 18:25 on 23/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up and hopefully run a spellcheck after dinner.

Edited at around 19:55 on 23/11/17 (UK date) to add;

The liberation of the cities of Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour left ISIL in control of just one population centre in the Euphrates River basin. This is the town of Abu Kamal/Al-Bukamal. It sits around 8km (5 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.

Alongside liberating Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour cities the Syrians were also conducting another operation.

The were advancing from both the Tanf - Palmyra Line and the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line on the T-2 Airbase.

With it's strange arrangement of runways in an X formation the T-2 Airbase sits just on the edge of the Abu Kamal municipal area. Around 70km (40 miles) west of the town itself. It is seen as the military gateway to liberating Abu Kamal.

On October 26th (26/10/17) the Syrians liberated the T-2 Airbase. On November 5th (5/11/17) the Syrians reached the Syria/Iraq border from the T-2 Airbase.

On November 8th (8/11/17) the Syrians launched an operation to liberate Abu Kamal itself. Attacking from the south and the west.

Initially it appeared as though ISIL had fled Abu Kamal in panic. This allowed the Syrians to declare victory in the town on the same day their operation had begun.

By November 10th (10/11/17) it had become clear that ISIL had managed to re-group outside of the town and launch a counter-offensive. This combined with sleeper cells that had been hiding in tunnels underneath Abu Kamal.

This counter-offensive proved to be substantial. By November 12th (12/11/17) ISIL claimed that they had been able to re-capture all of Abu Kamal. While this was an exaggeration ISIL were certainly able to regain control of around 50-75% of the town.

While fighting was ongoing in Abu Kamal further Syrian forces were advancing along the southern bank of the Euphrates from Mayadin to Abu Kamal.

On November 9th (9/11/17) these forces were able to reach the Hamdan Airbase which sits directly to the north of Abu Kamal. After liberating the airbase they were able to join the battle for Abu Kamal opening a northern axis on or around November 13th (13/11/17).

Obviously having declared Abu Kamal liberated once only to be embarrassed the Syrians have been extremely cautious in declaring it liberated for a second time. However from Sunday (19/11/17) it has become increasingly clear that the significant fighting in the town has now over and only there are only mopping up operations to do.

While battling to liberate Abu Kamal the Syrians have been working to clear ISIL from the section of desert bordered by the Tanf-Suknah Line, the Suknah-Mayadin Line, the Euphrates River and the border with Iraq.

Their particular focus is on the roads linking the T-2 Airbase with Mayadin and the main Deir-ez-Zour to Homs highway. Both of which are now said to be fully reopened.

20:45 on 23/11/17 (UK date).

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