This should be read as a direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/operation-featherweight-month-37-week-1_24.html
No Plan For
Peace:
Mosul was first
settled in the 25th Century B.C as part of the nation of Assyria. At its peak
this stretched from the island on Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea to the west
to Persia in the east and from the Caucus nations of Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan in the north to the Arabian Peninsula and Egypt in the south.
Over the course
of some 3,000 years Assyria was conquered as part of numerous empires. These
included the Macedonian Empire, the Hellenic or Greek Empire and the Roman
Empire along with several Persian or Iranian Empires. Assyria and the Assyrian
people were some of the first to adopt Christianity in the last days of the
Roman Empire.
In the 7th
Century A.D Mosul was overrun by the Muslim Crusades. As part of the area's new
Muslim identity Assyria was dismantled.
In the 9th
Century Mosul briefly came under the control of the Turkish dynasty of Kundajiq
before being taken over by the Shia Muslim Abbasid Caliphate. In the 11th
Century Mosul was conquered by the Sunni Muslim Selijuq Empire which was
predominately based in Turkey.
In the 13th
Century Mosul was briefly conquered by the Mongol Empire of Hulagu Khan before
being returned to the Abbasid Caliphate which was by then part of the Mamluk
Empire in 1260.
In 1516 the
Ottoman Empire defeated the Mamluks in the Battle of Dabiq Meadow leading to
the entire Mamluk Empire including Mosul being absorbed into the Ottoman
Empire.
This 800 year
period of conquest and counter-conquest saw Mosul absorb a wide variety of
immigrants including Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, Armenians, Circassians, Kawliya or
Gypsies and of course Persians alongside the indigenous Assyrians.
The Ottoman
Empire fell with defeat to the allied forces at the end of the First World War
in 1918. Mosul and its surroundings were then ruled by the British as Mandatory
Iraq. In 1932 the Kingdom of Iraq was established with the nation becoming a
Ba'athist Republic in 1958.
In 1979 Saddam
Hussein established himself as the de facto ruler of Iraq. Hussein used this
position to consolidate the power of his own Sunni Arab minority.
This included
the suppression of Iraq's Shia majority and a policy of "Arabisation"
in the north of the country.
The purpose of Arabisation was to make
minorities out of the Kurds, Assyrians, Turkmen Armenians and Circassians who
were a majority in the north.
This was done by forcing them out of their homes
and replacing them with Sunni Arabs. It was as part of this program that Mosul
was turned into Iraq's second largest city including the building of Mosul Dam which was opened in 1984.
In 2003 Saddam
Hussein was overthrown and Iraq was transformed from a dictatorship into what
is largely speaking a democracy. This restored power to the Shia majority and
brought to an end the special privileges that the Sunni minority enjoyed under
Saddam.
Mosul's Sunni
population has long chaffed against the loss of their special status. They have
repeatedly accused the Shia dominated Iraqi Central Government (ICG) of
ignoring them and persecuting them.
When ISIL
invaded northern Iraq in the summer of 2014 many of Mosul's Sunnis saw the
group as a credible alternative to the ICG and sided with them. This collusion
by local residents is really the main reason why ISIL were able to capture
Mosul so easily.
Three years on
the majority of Mosul's residents have realised that ISIL are far, far worse than
the ICG. However that does not mean they suddenly like the ICG and many of the
old grievances still exist. There are many ethnic groups like the Turkmen and
sadly the Kurds along with local tribes such as the Nujafi tribe who are more than
happy to exploit those grievances for their own ends.
Therefore there
is a high risk that even though ISIL have been defeated they will simply be
replaced by similar armed insurgencies against the ICG.
To prevent this
it is vital that the ICG has a strong post-conflict reconstruction plan to
reassert its authority over the city by making sure that Mosul's residents feel
that they were being listened to and cared for.
Any post-conflict
reconstruction plan has four key priorities;
1. Security:
Beneath Mosul's Old City there is a famous underground market that dates back
to the pre-Ottoman period. During their occupation of the city ISIL have added
a vast network of tunnels and bunkers stretching across much of the city.
Besides the
tunnel and bunker network there is clear evidence that as they've neared defeat
ISIL have established a network of sleeper agents within the city. These people
have mingled in with the civilian population in order to carry out terror
attacks in the future.
So although
Mosul was functionally liberated back on July 9th (9/7/17) there remains work
to be done clearing the tunnel and bunker network and capturing any remaining
sleeper agents. Just on Tuesday (25/7/17) ISIL were able to carry out a small
and largely ineffective attack on one of Mosul's markets.
Beyond any
remaining ISIL fighters there remains the problem of vast amounts of unexploded
ordinance littering the city.
This includes the Improvised Explosive Devices
(IED's) that ISIL have hidden in many homes along with weapons which have been
fired by the ISF but failed to explode and weapons that ISIL had stored for use
during the battle.
These weapons
remain as dangerous now as they did when the battle was raging. In fact as they
age and become unstable they may actually become more dangerous.
Unexploded ordnance
can of course kill. However particularly landmines and IED's pose a great risk
of injury such as the loss of limbs. Children are especially at risk of this
type of injury.
Talking to
people in Mosul there are already an estimated 900 children who've suffered
this type of explosive amputation and have lost limbs. Having covered several
Para-Olympic games this is an issue I'm actually quite familiar with so you'll
excuse me if I take a tangent to talk about it in more detail.
Treating
amputees including by fitting prosthetic limbs is actually quite a complicated
task. It requires multiple medical disciplines working together over a long
period of time.
Firstly you need
surgical specialists. If an amputation has not been performed properly or has
not healed properly then fitting a prosthetic can actually make life worse for
the person by causing them further health problems. Therefore you need ideally
an orthopaedic surgeon to confirm that a person would benefit from a prosthetic
limb.
This can take a
very long time. In the US there is currently much coverage of Gabe Davis a 9
year old double above the knee amputee. It has taken six years and 14 surgeries
to get him to the point where he is able to have prosthetics fitted. His is a
particularly complex case but its normally in the region of six months to a
year after amputation that prosthetics would be considered.
Even the best
prosthetics do not attach to the nervous system meaning that they don't have sensation.
They also do not connect to muscles meaning that you cannot move them the way
you would move a normal limb.
Therefore particularly
with legs people need to spend a lot of time with a Physical/Occupational
Therapist learning how to use their prosthetics. For above the knee amputees
this often includes a period using mini-prosthetics before graduating to full
sized ones.
Hopefully
illustrating my point this is a video of British double above the knee amputee Richard
Whitehead winning T42 200m at the 2016 Paralympics. Although effective I'm sure
you'll agree his running style seems strange and unnatural the first time you
see it; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmnRjk9oRZ4
Finally each
prosthetic needs to be custom made for its user. This normally involves a cast
being made of the amputation site or stump. That cast is then used to make a
fastening cup out of carbon fibre or plastic which attaches the prosthetic to
the stump. This work requires a medical technician who specialises in
prosthetics.
Obviously
prosthetics do get broken and as people's bodies change over time their
prosthetics need to be replaced to grow with them. This is particularly true
for growing children.
So providing
care for children and adults who've lost limbs to explosives is not as simple
as a charity swooping in and just handing out prosthetic limbs.
Instead it falls
to the Iraqi Health Ministry to establish specialist hospitals or specialist
clinics in existing hospitals to provide care for these people over the course
of their lifetimes.
Charities will
certainly be prepared to assist in setting up those specialist centres. If Iraq
can ensure a steady supply of customers the prosthetics manufacturers will
probably train the technicians for free.
Obviously the
most effective treatment is to remove all the unexploded ordinance before it
has a chance to injure anyone. This is a substantial task with estimates
ranging from a few months to a full year.
It may even take
longer than that. Some 70 years after the event both Britain and Germany still
regularly uncover and have to make safe explosives dating back to the Second
World War. However I should point out that during that war both Britain and
Germany essentially spent five years absolutely carpet bombing each other.
It is hard to
prioritise where to focus the bomb disposal effort.
There is little point
making all the civilian homes safe if none of the support services like shops
and employers that civilians need to survive in those homes have not also been
made safe. Likewise there's no point making the shops and employers safe if the
city is a ghost town because none of the homes have been made safe.
The priority
really should be on inspecting all buildings and then triaging them. The ones that a free from explosives can be reopened immediately while
those with explosives can remain closed off until the explosives have been
cleared.
There also needs
to be some form of public information campaign so people know to avoid areas
that are awaiting demining and know not to touch or in the case of children
play with unexploded munitions.
Beyond the
security challenges associated with the war there of remain all the usual
crimes problems you get in a city of more than a million people. These include
things like theft and personal disputes. Looting is always a huge problem with
it being extremely easy to grab hold of valuables being left in the ruins of
abandoned buildings.
The remaining
ISIL fighters and particularly the removal of unexploded munitions are
obviously military problems that need to be handled by the military elements of
the ISF. However the everyday policing such as catching looters and generally
interacting with the public should be handled by civilian police force elements
of the ISF.
The current
security situation in Mosul remains something of a disorganised mess.
The western half
of the city was liberated by three elements of the ISF; the Counter-Terrorism
Force (CTF/Golden Division), the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi Federal Police.
Security around the city is being provided by the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and
militias from the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF).
Within the
eastern half of the city which was liberated back in January security patrols
are being mounted by a variety of militias - some part of the PMF structure,
others not. Many of the militias in the east operate without oversight and
neither like nor trust each other. It must be said that many are distinctly
untrustworthy committing most of the looting rather than stopping it.
All of these
different security forces operating without a single unified command means that
the operation is confused and lacking in direction. The different groups all look
after the area they are in control of meaning that resources are not being
shared between the areas where they are needed most.
2. Restoring
Basic Services: Whether it is caused by war or natural disaster the most
effective way for an area to recover is to get it back to as close to what was
normal as soon as possible. The government's main role here is to restore the
basic services people use to get on with their lives.
The most
important basic service in Mosul as in any city is water and sanitation. To
live people need clean drinking water. In order to keep that water clean people's
sewage and waste need to be removed. Particularly within Mosul one of the main
sanitation problems are all the dead bodies that remain hidden in the rubble.
These need to be located, removed and safely disposed of as quickly as
possible.
If the
sanitation situation is not taken under control then particularly with
malnourished people Mosul is running a high risk of a second tragedy in the
form of widespread outbreaks of diseases like Cholera and Typhoid.
Along with clean
water to drink in order to live people also need food to eat. Therefore it is
important to restore the food distribution networks. Or to put it in less
technical terms; get the shops and markets reopened.
In order to do
this the authorities need to make sure that existing merchants have premises to
operate from, the ability to purchase stock from suppliers and transport links
to get that stock delivered.
As I mentioned
in my previous post the authorities can help merchants purchase stock from
suppliers by providing loan guarantees. This allows merchants to get stock on
credit with the supplier assured that the government will cover the cost should
they default.
The authorities
also need to make sure that customers can then buy that stock from the
merchants. When public sectors employees are back at work and getting paid this
problem should really take care of itself.
However the
authorities can introduce price controls to prevent profiteering and a ration
voucher system to cover any potential cash shortfall. That involves giving people vouchers which they can exchange
for goods. The merchant then exchanges the vouchers with the government for
cash.
In order for a
city to function people need to be able to move around it. Therefore the
authorities need to get the roads both within Mosul and in and out of Mosul
re-opened as quickly as possible. This involves clearing rubble, making repairs
and keeping delays at security checkpoints of a minimum.
To operate a
shop, run a business or make repairs people need electricity to provide light, refrigeration
and to power tools. Therefore the authorities need to restore the power supply
grid as quickly as possible.
3. Recovery:
Many buildings and even entire neighbourhoods in Mosul have been totally destroyed
by the fighting. However there are also many buildings that have only been
lightly damaged with a hole in the roof here and a knocked down wall there.
The best thing
for the owners of these properties to do is to repair the damage themselves.
After all it is extremely complicated for the government to arrange for
builders to visit and carry out repairs of some 700,000 properties. However it
is relatively easy for residents of each one of those properties to arrange for
builders to visit and repair just their building.
The ICG can
speed the process up by making compensation available to people who are
carrying out their own repairs. This can be done in two ways;
The first is
obviously to just hand out cash. However with no real system of checks and
balance this approach is open to widespread fraud and corruption. Also it tends
not to be that effective. If people are given cash no questions asked they tend
to spend it quickly rather than on repair work meaning that the repairs end up not
being done.
The second
option is a compensation scheme modelled on a insurance payout. The closest
example to what I mean I can think of is the UK's Riot Damages Act of 1886.
As the name
suggests this allows for government compensation to be paid to people who have
property lost or damaged during riots. Much to the annoyance of particularly
Housing Associations linked to the Labour Party it was used extensively
following the August 2011 riots. The law was then repealed.
It works by
people filling in a form detailing the damage, when and how it was caused and
the value of repairing or replacing it. This form is then sent to the relevant
authority - in this case the Police Authority.
They then assess the claim to
make sure that it is genuine and valid. Obviously you can't claim for riot
damage if you are one of the rioters. Finally the person making the claim receives
payment.
This approach
massively reduces the possibility for fraud because it is easier to detect
multiple claims being made by the same person or for the same address. Also having
to submit a plan of what repairs you are going to carry out forces you to
actually plan those repairs. This makes it more likely any compensation will
actually be used on repairs.
The main
disadvantage is that it can take an extremely long time for payments to be
made. I think the final case following the August 2011 riots was not settled
until April 2016.
However if
people can be reasonably assured that compensation will be forthcoming they are
more likely to spend their savings getting repairs done knowing those savings
will be replenished. If there is significant trust in the compensation scheme
they may even be able to get the work done on a buy now, pay later credit
basis.
4.
Reconstruction: Across Mosul there are areas that have been completed
destroyed. The people living in these areas will require a lot of support from
the ICG.
The question is
whether the authorities simply want to restore Mosul to the way it was before
the battle. Or do they want to use it as an opportunity to improve Mosul.
"Build Back Better" as it’s known in the jargon.
In any city
anywhere in the World there are always things that can be improved. A prime
example of this is the US city of Los Angeles in California.
Los Angeles was
first established as a city at birth of the era of the motor car. As such the
principle behind Los Angeles was to build vast freeways and allow development
to spring up around those freeways. The result of this is that to get anywhere
in this sprawling city you need to drive. That causes massive gridlock and
traffic chaos.
I get the
impression that many people in Los Angeles wouldn't be that bothered if the
city was destroyed in a massive earthquake. That would give them the
opportunity to start again from scratch eliminating many of the city's design
flaws.
If it is decided
to simply restore Mosul to the way it was you're talking in terms of a
multi-year project in which architects are employed and buildings rebuilt. If
you're talking about building back better that is an even longer - possibly
decades long - process in which new urban design plans are drawn up, new
building are designed and finally built.
Throughout
either process the people who have lost their homes will need somewhere to
live. In the event of a year or two restoration process it may be possible to
house them in IDP camps during that time.
However in the
event of a longer process the best approach is for the government to buy their
destroyed properties. This allows them to buy new properties elsewhere.
If
there are concerns about the reconstruction process changing the demographics
of the city the people who've sold their destroyed properties can be given
first refusal to buy the new homes once they've been completed.
For simplicity's
sake I have listed priorities separately. However in reality not one of them
can happen in isolation of each other.
For example if
you want to restore water and sanitation systems you are going to need to
restore the electricity supply to power construction tools and water pumps. To
do either of those tasks you need to have the worksites secured and free from
unexploded ordinance. You also need the roads open to move equipment to the
sites and have food and water supplies along with accommodation for workers.
To get the work
done quickly there needs to be a high degree of coordination between the
different agencies involved. To achieve this the ICG needs to establish a
single command centre or cell to handle the reconstruction.
This involves
bringing all the relative agencies such as single body for security, the water
and power providers, the road maintenance agency, the urban planning agency,
the finance ministry etc together under one roof.
As I've said
formulating a plan to evacuate the city would have provided a headstart in this
process by establishing an agency for IDP's/Residents. Such an agency still
needs to be created to give residents a clear voice within the command cell.
The command cell
is headed by a single individual who has the responsibility and authority to
coordinate the different agencies to work together.
19:25 on 27/7/17 (UK date).
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